Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm definitely going to be bummed when Winchester and Parkton check in with a foot and I have a sloppy 1.5". I'd sign on the dotted line now for 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 1.2" total for DC with ~0.5" falling between 12z and 18z and another 0.2" between 18z and 00z. It's a good run for DC..probably the best we can hope for given the setup. if we blend GFS/NAM soundings, we probably flip in DC around 9 or 10....but will probably waste snow for a bit until we get to 34....it's a cold air/precip race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd sign on the dotted line now for 1.5"We need something worthwhile after this effort. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I just moved down here in April. I live in Oakton. Am I far enough west of D.C to have less worry than the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I just moved down here in April. I live in Oakton. Am I far enough west of D.C to have less worry than the city? easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I just moved down here in April. I live in Oakton. Am I far enough west of D.C to have less worry than the city? Usually we're fine here in Oakton. Half the distance to IAD than to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Usually we're fine here in Oakton. Half the distance to IAD than to DCA Thank god. lol. I gave up a lot in moving down here from South Central PA though. Thinking about going to visit my dad tomorrow evening up there. They are forecasted for 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 03z SREFs 24 hr QPF has DC back above the 1" mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is wet as eff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Instant weather maps get 3" almost into DC. Looks like 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Welp there is the moist run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hi Res keeps getting better. I'd take 2-4" in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 snips of LWX's latest... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC347 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014(snip) .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...(snip) THE KEY QSTN REMAINS HOW MUCH COLD AIR WL BE PRESENT. LIKE THEPRVS FCSTR...AM COUNTING ON DYNAMICS AND COOLER AIR DRAINING SWD ONWRN SIDE OF LOW. THE TRACK OF THE H8 LOW HUGGING THE COAST FAVORS ATLEAST SOME COOLING ACRS CWFA AS WELL. AM KEEPING SAME THOUGHTPROCESS GOING IN THIS FCST...MAINLY SNOW BLURDG WEST...RASN I-95 TOBLURDG...AND PRIMARILY RAIN TO THE SE. HWVR...AS THE LOW PULLSAWAY...THE COOLER AIR SHUD BE DRAGGED SWD...AND HV A CHANGEOVER TAKEPLACE. EVEN THEN...IT/LL BE TOUGH FOR ACCUMS TO GET GOING NEAR THECOAST SINCE GRND WARM AND SFC TEMPS MID-UPR 30S.(snip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 407 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-251715- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0007.141126T1100Z-141126T2300Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON- EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...HIGHTOWN... MONTEREY...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN... KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 407 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR SIX INCHES OR MORE. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ABOVE 1000 FEET. LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BELOW 1000 FEET. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY... INCLUDING INTERSTATE 68 ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND. THIS MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS FOR WEDNESDAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF WET SNOW MAY CAUSE DOWNED TREES THAT LEAD TO AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 407 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 MDZ003>007-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-WVZ050>053-055-251715- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0007.141126T1100Z-141126T2300Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL... CHARLOTTESVILLE...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON... MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD 407 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ABOVE 1000 FEET. LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BELOW 1000 FEET. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm definitely going to be bummed when Winchester and Parkton check in with a foot and I have a sloppy 1.5". Story of my life. I dont know why I just dont move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 surface temps have continued to inch up on the Euro runs imby 2 days ago it was 1.3C and then went down but now it's 1.8C and never gets below 1.7C so IF the Euro temps are correct, I get no accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 mitchnik I live a stones throw from you, on rt 175 east columbia and I.m really not expecting to see much accum either, despite all the talk about temps and rates, if it snows in nov, i,m happy., Wishing your family ,gods best blessings peace and prosperity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Contest #1 for the 2014-15 season. There are some intense-but-interesting statistics developed after each contest by TQ. http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-14-15-storm-1-call-for-forecasts.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 mitchnik I live a stones throw from you, on rt 175 east columbia and I.m really not expecting to see much accum either, despite all the talk about temps and rates, if it snows in nov, i,m happy., Wishing your family ,gods best blessings peace and prosperity. Am also in East Columbia. I've noticed a big difference in accums (usually declining) driving from Columbia to BWI area after many storms. Personally, I also don't see much chance of accums on grass, decks, etc. until late afternoon or early evening -- if then -- unless we get some great rates earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 mitchnik I live a stones throw from you, on rt 175 east columbia and I.m really not expecting to see much accum either, despite all the talk about temps and rates, if it snows in nov, i,m happy., Wishing your family ,gods best blessings peace and prosperity. Am also in East Columbia. I've noticed a big difference in accums (usually declining) driving from Columbia to BWI area after many storms. Personally, I also don't see much chance of accums on grass, decks, etc. until late afternoon or early evening -- if then -- unless we get some great rates earlier. all you have to do is get on Rt. 100 and drive east from Rt. 104 and it's all downhill....in more respects than one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I have low expectations here...my desire is to change the landscape a bit to create a nice holiday mood. An inch or two on the grass will do that. Anything more including street accumulations is a bonus but is highly unlikely. I sure hope most on here get to see some white love lay on their yards. Good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 6z RGEM is very wet. Eyeballing 1.4" QPF in DC. Based on meteograms, 14 mm of snow or 0.55". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 all you have to do is get on Rt. 100 and drive east from Rt. 104 and it's all downhill....in more respects than one! but then, again, gentlemen I,m 66, seen my big and small snows. Its all icing on the cake now. Hope you both have good winters, enjoy the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I have low expectations here...my desire is to change the landscape a bit to create a nice holiday mood. An inch or two on the grass will do that. Anything more including street accumulations is a bonus but is highly unlikely. I sure hope most on here get to see some white love lay on their yards. Good luck all good, realistic post and thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 all you have to do is get on Rt. 100 and drive east from Rt. 104 and it's all downhill....in more respects than one! I'm right near Rt. 100 and Rt. 103. I've seen a snow difference in just the 2 miles from my neighborhood to 95. So yeah Mitch--got that right! BTW. Local TWC says 3-5 inches? Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think we busy high under heavy rates and the ground is covered, including streets. This doesn't include the immediate downtown DC area until very late tomorrow afternoon. 2-5 inches in the 95 corridor. Temps have fallen nicely overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I honestly don't have a problem if this busts low (or completely) because just the fact that we see a Miller A at this point in the season bodes well for the next 3 months regardless, good luck and Happy Thanksgiving to all in case I can't see through my tears tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even the euro Temps are concern at this point. Those of us to the west stand a better chance. But I think this is a white rain storm for basically everyone. I will be happy with 2 inches on the grass before thanksgiving though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I honestly don't have a problem if this busts low (or completely) because just the fact that we see a Miller A at this point in the season bodes well for the next 3 months regardless, good luck and Happy Thanksgiving to all in case I can't see through my tears tomorrow lol Yes, if a Miller A pattern can establish itself from the funky jetstream it gives good odds of snowier Jan and Febs. Temps seem to be pointing to rain events in Dec. 37 winters here and it's really only useful to pay attention from Jan 5 thru March 5, if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even the euro Temps are concern at this point. Those of us to the west stand a better chance. But I think this is a white rain storm for basically everyone. I will be happy with 2 inches on the grass before thanksgiving though. Aren't Euro temps usually a degree or two on the high side? Seems they tend to come down as we approach an event. Maybe that's just with CAD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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