mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Folks, please don't post WxBell graphics. Describe the output for our area in words. every picture is worth a 1,000 words....now you've done it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Folks, please don't post WxBell graphics. Describe the output for our area in words. Their rules are just not posting the non WMO Euro, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Folks, please don't post WxBell graphics. Describe the output for our area in words. ok fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Rgem is pretty cold at the surface @ 18z. 32-34in the corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Folks, please don't post WxBell graphics. Describe the output for our area in words. Or, if it's more your speed - interpretive dance. But I thought they only had tight restrictions on the ECMWF. I could be wrong, I'm not a subscriber so don't take my word on it entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How are the algorithms flawed? If 850mb temps are below 0 C it often shows all qpf as accumulating snow without factoring in evaporation/surface temps/melting and or compaction/etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ok fair enough What he meant to say is read more post less.. to you specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Their rules are just not posting the non WMO Euro, FWIW. It's Euro only? I thought it was all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If 850mb temps are below 0 C it often shows all qpf as accumulating snow without factoring in evaporation/surface temps/melting and or compaction/etc so the maps are only useful if the sfc temp is below 0 C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's Euro only? I thought it was all models. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/536226370733367297 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 so the maps are only useful if the sfc temp is below 0 C? Their maps tend to overdo almost every snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/536226370733367297 Cool, thanks. Ok folks, can post WxBell graphics that are non-Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Rgem is pretty cold at the surface @ 18z. 32-34in the corridor. All the math lines up on the RGEM to account for the output of snow, but I'm not completely convinced the 2m temps will drop that quickly. I tend to side with the NAM's (bold words) progression of tomorrow's cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 so the maps are only useful if the sfc temp is below 0 C? If the temperature is regularly 'tweaked' incorrectly, then when sfc is below 0c, it will be 'overblown' and then you start crossing into ratio territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't think wxbell is doing anything to make the maps snowier they just aren't filtering very sophisticcatedly. It seems most apparent on the euro which apparently just has an off/on variable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All the math lines up on the RGEM to account for the output of snow, but I'm not completely convinced the 2m temps will drop that quickly. I tend to side with the NAM's (bold words) progression of tomorrow's cold front. my guess is, the rates do it on the RGEM,,,,can be no other explanation hence, if rates fail even a little, forget the colder temps and greater snow amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like 00z GGEM took a slight jaunt eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All the math lines up on the RGEM to account for the output of snow, but I'm not completely convinced the 2m temps will drop that quickly. I tend to side with the NAM's (bold words) progression of tomorrow's cold front. It shows 33 through the corridor at 15z and heavy rates during the window. 1" qpf through the cities. Is it too cold? Probabl. But I personally give it more cred than the nam/gfs. Rgem fared a good bit better at short leads last year. I'm not tossing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 my guess is, the rates do it on the RGEM,,,,can be no other explanation hence, if rates fail even a little, forget the colder temps and greater snow amounts Solid guess. Still asking to rely an awful lot on that shortwave slipping in from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GGEM is like 0.75" for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 fwiw, the .7"+ qpf total expanded a bit on the 0Z para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It shows 33 through the corridor at 15z and heavy rates during the window. 1" qpf through the cities. Is it too cold? Probabl. But I personally give it more cred than the nam/gfs. Rgem fared a good bit better at short leads last year. I'm not tossing it I wouldn't recommend tossing it either. At this point, we're honestly nitpicking about some of the finer points. Save for foreign (and some local) unreliables, there isn't a model out there that's too far from the other. But each model derives its own input (part a), so the math can add up to create the output - but that doesn't mean part "a" was right in the first place. Nevertheless, it's not like we're looking at one side of the fence printing soaking rain and no snow and the other printing out 8-12" - we've got a better consensus than we could ask for. Especially given the weather these last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS has had pronounced gravity waves last few runs. Wonder how much it's messing with QPF. edit: maybe HM brought this up earlier here.. too many place to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I wouldn't recommend tossing it either. At this point, we're honestly nitpicking about some of the finer points. Save for foreign (and some local) unreliables, there isn't a model out there that's too far from the other. But each model derives its own input (part a), so the math can add up to create the output - but that doesn't mean part "a" was right in the first place. Nevertheless, it's not like we're looking at one side of the fence printing soaking rain and no snow and the other printing out 8-12" - we've got a better consensus than we could ask for. Especially given the weather these last few days. Totally agree. It comes down to the disco we had in here yesterday. Rates are the wildcard. Surface is flawed. American guidance is trending wetter.Eur globals and Can short range are 1"+ across the board. We've been here before. I'm confident the American guidance is too dry. Temps and rates are best left to discuss tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the GFS qpf seems off with this set up, looking at 700mb vertical velocity the gravity waves seem way over done, this may be the culprit regarding the low qpf totals, i have trouble imagining that strong of UVM and DVM in such a short period, and i don't see it as pronounced in the other models as it is in the GFS, this probably means it's likely a model artifact. I would lean toward higher qpf. But the western jog seems very possible, we'll have to see how strong the initial convective over the gulf states is, the stronger the convective actively is the further west the system will be pulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS has had pronounced gravity waves last few runs. Wonder how much it's messing with QPF. edit: maybe HM brought this up earlier here.. too many place to read. haha way ahead of man, lol spent the last 15 minutes checking this out, post, and then read the comments I missed and bam! this is indeed what I am also thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 it's almost midnight and it's 66 degrees imby enough already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 it's almost midnight and it's 66 degrees imby enough already I have 10lb bags of ice on my mulch. #proactivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z UKIE good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z UKIE good to go Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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