nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Where is that link? The layout there is atrocious lol. He recently changed up the front page and I can't find the regional views of the GFS anymore either. Click on the RGEM under Global Numerical Model Prediction, click on the region, and then theres a Snow Accumulation Map. I like his new Beta page for the regional views for each model. At the top of the page, next to ECMWF Rain/Snow, Temperature, and Surface Maps and GFS Surface Maps, click on the "EzClick MouseOver Beta Portal" - then you can select from regions within that. It's a much better layout for that, once you find where it is. The website is so confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 There would be a lot of happy people if that verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 There is some dry air in the soundings aloft...was just looking specifically at the 0z NAM. This is not just a dynamic cooling deal- dont discount evap cooling as it could be the difference maker wrt snow vs rain. I was thinking about that earlier...evap cooling. Dew points are measured at ground level, right? Where does one find moisture content at other levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 00z UKIE has 850 0c line just past DCA at 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I'm keeping simple tonight. A simple blend of.the hrrr/rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Thx nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 03z HRRR pushes 0c 850 line past DCA just after 7am with snow working into DCA by 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 03z HRRR pushes 0c 850 line past DCA just after 7am Isn't that trending earlier since you started posting about the hrrr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I was thinking about that earlier...evap cooling. Dew points are measured at ground level, right? Where does one find moisture content at other levels. I just look at the soundings and compare the dp, wet bulb, and actual temp at different heights edit- remember evap cooling is more efficient than dynamic cooling which relies largely on melting precip to remove heat and cool surrounding air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 3 hr. Pressure falls Interesting High north of NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 00z UKIE drops .7" of QPF at DCA from 12z to 18z (6 hr period) Total QPF at DCA just over 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Interesting High north of NY. Large area of low pressure moving out of that region causing pressures to rise dramatically, not necessarily a strengthening anticyclone unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Large area of low pressure moving out of that region causing pressures to rise dramatically, not necessarily a strengthening anticyclone unfortunately. I was suspicious, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 00z UKIE drops .7" of QPF at DCA from 12z to 18z (6 hr period) Total QPF at DCA just over 1" QPF Anyone have the uk precip maps? Where do you get those btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 04z RAP 1hr QPF images/charts continues to still show 0.1 to 0.25" QPF for us for about 5 hrs straight (approx 12UTC to 18UTC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 4Z hrrr dry slot nightmare lowers my expectations lower than they were. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/04/hrrr_east-us_00900_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Anyone have the uk precip maps? Where do you get those btw? http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Weak 1025 high trying to squeeze in Not really north of us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 4Z hrrr dry slot nightmare lowers my expectations lower than they were. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/04/hrrr_east-us_00900_sim_radar.gif It doesnt really affect us... stays far enough S and E of DCA region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It doesnt really affect us... stays far enough S and E of DCA region yea, it seems to fill in in later frames, but I wouldn't be surprised for one to sneak in like many systems in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I'm talking overall not just events. Last yr had a lot of hard cold infiltration events too. This is anomalously cold for the time of yr but not crazy impressive cold or storm/cold coupling. Yep just because it's cold for this time of year doesnt mean it's cold enough to accumulate snow. It's actually comfortable outside right now. I wouldn't be surprised at rain from start to finish in the city. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Weak 1025 high trying to squeeze in 30.25 will do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro looks warm and wet 1.25 at jyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro looks warm and wet 1.25 at jyo it's markedly wetter than 12z run, and it is snowier for you, though a lot comes in the afternoon....I think the morning might suck for a lot of us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 We can't even snow during a storm where temps are 20 below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 05z has the 0c 850 line cross through DCA once again just after 7am... and keeps the heavier QPF for 10am to 4pm time period where if you have snow.. its ripping snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 4z RAP is going bonkers... 8"+ for much of northern Baltimore county, 3" in DC, 4-6" in Baltimore (assuming 10:1 ratios, it will be more like 7-8:1 so cut accordingly) HRRR looks very good too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 4z RAP is going bonkers... 8"+ for much of northern Baltimore county, 3" in DC, 4-6" in Baltimore (assuming 10:1 ratios, it will be more like 7-8:1 so cut accordingly) HRRR looks very good too... 5z RAP.... not much happening here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 5z RAP.... not much happening here.... Looks like wxbell uses a more conservative algorithm than the rapid refresh site for snow maps... I thought that was reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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