mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Nam very dry here I bet you say that to all the women Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The hrrr has me flipped and ripping at 9am. Im riding that until a better model shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The hrrr has me flipped and ripping at 9am. Im riding that until a better model shows up. I only have the contour lines to go by...kinda crude...but the hires NAM looks pretty good out here....can't tell down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RGEM is really wet again don't know about temps, but with all that precip, it must be as good as 18z 2 maps....12hr and 24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 24 looks like a large deformation band over us Mitch... I hope some of that is snow for us... considering that's 25mm in 12 hrs or 1 inch QPF in 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 24 looks like a large deformation band over us Mitch... I hope some of that is snow for us yep and I hope so too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 yep and I hope so too The 24 hr map actually shows DCA in the 1" QPF in 12 hrs... so there will be some good rates if that is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The 24 hr map actually shows DCA in the 1" QPF in 12 hrs... so there will be some good rates if that is correct That's pretty impressive...wonder how that's divided up in that 12-h period. Total is on the order of ~1.5" estimating from the two maps. (ETA: Grrrr, not sure why the squiggle line for "approximately" 1.5" is coming out as a negative when I submitted this post!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 02z RAP pushes 0C 850 line through DCA between 6am and 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 lol...HRRR flips me at 9am, but it is still 37-38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like ~11 mm (0.44") of snow at DCA on RGEM. About 25mm of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR absolutely smokes the far western burbs...someone with some elevation is going to get nailed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's pretty impressive...wonder how that's divided up in that 12-h period. Total is on the order of ~1.5" estimating from the two maps. (ETA: Grrrr, not sure why the squiggle line for "approximately" 1.5" is coming out as a negative when I submitted this post!) Pretty crazy how so much qpf is being modeled without the two waves phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 02z RAP 1 hr precip is smoking the region... 0.10 to 0.25 QPF per hour across our area for 4 to 5 hrs straight from 12UTC to 18UTC (8am to 2pm, right?)... hopefully some of this is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 02z RAP pushes 0C 850 line through DCA between 6am and 7am Interesting that once the 850 0C line goes by, it more or less stays in the same exact place the remainder of the run (into mid-afternoon). There are some good hourly QPF rates in there, too, along with a band/blob moving into central VA that looks like it's headed up this way at 20Z (but we're talking the tail end of the run here, not sure if that means much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 02z RAP 1 hr precip is smoking the region... 0.10 to 0.25 QPF per hour across our area for 4 to 5 hrs straight from 12UTC to 18UTC (8am to 2pm, right?)... hopefully some of this is snow 7am to 1pm. EST is 5 hours behind zulu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Interesting that once the 850 0C line goes by, it more or less stays in the same exact place the remainder of the run (into mid-afternoon). There are some good hourly QPF rates in there, too, along with a band/blob moving into central VA that looks like it's headed up this way at 20Z (but we're talking the tail end of the run here, not sure if that means much). I was just looking at that same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 02z RAP pushes 0C 850 line through DCA between 6am and 7am 2z HRRR says the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR absolutely smokes the far western burbs...someone with some elevation is going to get nailed.. Indeed...looks like some banding in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 00z GFS has 850 line east of DCA by 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is almost all rain for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 00z GFS has 850 line east of DCA by 7am Yeah. A little colder at the surface also. At least out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS looks just a tad colder perhaps... At what point do models like the NAM, RGEM, HRRR, RAP, etc become more accurate than the globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS looks just a tad colder perhaps... At what point do models like the NAM, RGEM, HRRR, RAP, etc become more accurate than the globals? now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is a uniform 33-35 by 1pm. It's cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is an absolute furnace here. GFS looks just a tad colder perhaps... Guess it depends on one's location?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Man. Parts of New England get smoked this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Guess it depends on one's location?! See post above yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Man. Parts of New England get smoked this run. That's usually a given isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When the Low is due east of the Bay, the 850mb 0C isotherm is warmer... eta: not by much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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