Fozz Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I think he means 3 to 6 flakes for me and you. I would be shocked if i got 3-6". I wouldn't be shocked if we got 3 or 4 inches... we tend to sometimes get nice overperformers in marginal events. That being said, I think 1-3 sounds more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 SREFS have juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 SREFS have juice. I'd say. The 2" line now runs along Ocean City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 SREFS have juice. And colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Thought these guys were good. lol. 5-9" in DC lol ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR has trended colder, wants to flip DCA at around 14z-15z now. I'm somewhat skeptical but definitely like having it on board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 0Z NAM has the Low further off the coast at 9 hrs vs. 15 hrs. on the 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 And colder at the surface. Mean snow is down from 15z at DCA and up for Dulles. Means of 3.65 for DCA and 6.79 for IAD. If you do the usual SREF rule of cutting the mean in half, that is actually a pretty good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 0Z NAM colder than 18Z, but I can't tell yet by how much or if it will make much, if any, difference in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 0Z NAM colder than 18Z, but I can't tell yet by how much or if it will make much, if any, difference in the end I can't get the maps for some reason. Is the SLP further off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I can't get the maps for some reason. Is the SLP further off the coast? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 0Z NAM colder than 18Z, but I can't tell yet by how much or if it will make much, if any, difference in the end I tried to compare the frames for 18z timeframe and it looks a tad wetter on 0z...but the colors converge in a bad spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's definitely colder and about as wet as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 starts a few hours later and sim radar shows DCA/BWI still under decent echos at 4PM, though heaviest has just moved out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's definitely colder and about as wet as 18z. Ok. Sorry about that but I thought it was a least as wet...and colder it looked comparing the 850s from the two frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Based on this run, I'm going to agree with the LWX advisory from this morning, at least five inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Well, hello there little blue guy. NAM 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Its better than 18z but the surface is warm here still. 1" stripe goes right through DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 starts a few hours later and sim radar shows DCA/BWI still under decent echos at 4PM, though heaviest has just moved out Yeah, noticed that too. Nice comma signature to precip field as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 4k NAM considerably drier than NAM. Surface falls to 35-37 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I like what the NAM does for evening rush hour tomorrow. Nice teaser storm. Hints of snow with little impact until evening rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 NAM at BWI looks like a decent amount of wet snow with a chance of an inch or 2 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 anyone have any 0Z NAM snowfall maps they wish to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 NAM at BWI looks like a decent amount of wet snow with a chance of an inch or 2 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt JYO http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjyo.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 JYO http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjyo.txt not as much qpf as me but better temps you guys do well in these type events....me, naso much good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 not as much qpf as me but better temps you guys do well in these type events....me, naso much good luck! Yeah we always end up short on the qpf but tend to max out ratios...always felt like a grass cover to me...nam says yep. Good luck to you too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Nam very dry here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Nam very dry here lol...it always has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 wonder if the RGEM comes in even cooler than its last run hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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