paulythegun Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 19z is the first HRRR run i've seen that gets most of the region (including DCA) below 0C for 850 temps. would happen around 5am. Latest GFS is maybe a bit later...6-7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wow on the RGEM out here. Looks alot like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z Para is a torch at the sfc. 39-41F along I-95 at 18z tomorrow during the heaviest precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z Para is a torch at the sfc. 39-41F along I-95 at 18z tomorrow during the heaviest precipitation. yeah and this (also from 18z) doesn't particularly fill me with warm fuzzies either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 FWIW RGEM clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 yeah and this (also from 18z) doesn't particularly fill me with warm fuzzies either Definitely borderline, but it halts the trend against us and possibly starts a new one with possible 2 runs left before precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM's definitely my pick of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM has been bouncing back and forth between less snowy and snowy solutions.... a bit odd IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Go RGEM, go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM's definitely my pick of the day RGEM and UKIE FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Question: What are ideal dew points at this stage if we want snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Question: What are ideal dew points at this stage if we want snow? I think we've mostly reached the overanalysis of dew points stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 19z is the first HRRR run i've seen that gets most of the region (including DCA) below 0C for 850 temps. would happen around 5am. Latest GFS is maybe a bit later...6-7am. 21z RAP says 7am 850 line has cleared DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think we've mostly reached the overanalysis of dew points stage. But we have another good 12 hours at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think we've mostly reached the overanalysis of dew points stage. I'm not just talking about regards to this storm, any storm that happens this year, what should our DP be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Right when I am about to kick the can down the road for the next storm, RGEM pulls me back in. This life has got to stop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 But we have another good 12 hours at least Think we may have just hit the low end faster than expected.. they've been pretty steady this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 At least the gap between 18z and 0z model suite can now be filled with hourly analysis of the RAP and HRRR. Though didn't the RAP suck with temps during marginal events last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 At least the gap between 18z and 0z model suite can now be filled with hourly analysis of the RAP and HRRR. Though didn't the RAP suck with temps during marginal events last year? Somewhat. I actually liked the RAP better for banding and QPF. The HRRR went bonkers at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Think we may have just hit the low end faster than expected.. they've been pretty steady this afternoon. actually, they inched up over the region as a whole the last hour compare 5PM, which is the current map, then click on -1hr to get 4pm's http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=de&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 actually, they inched up over the region as a whole the last hour compare 5PM, which is the current map, then click on -1hr to get 4pm's http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=de&inv=0&t=cur Was expected tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 At least the gap between 18z and 0z model suite can now be filled with hourly analysis of the RAP and HRRR. Though didn't the RAP suck with temps during marginal events last year? The HRRR was/is a lot better...I've seen it nail even the smallest of microscale behavior(s)..right down to 5-mile wiggles in the 32 degree isotherm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 fwiw Where is that 1036 high right now, I do not see it. The low track is a stone 10 but absent any high it's going to ahve to do all the work itself and that is a low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 actually, they inched up over the region as a whole the last hour compare 5PM, which is the current map, then click on -1hr to get 4pm's http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=de&inv=0&t=cur They almost always go up as darkness comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Question: What are ideal dew points at this stage if we want snow? Right now low to mid 20's would be very encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where is that 1036 high right now, I do not see it. The low track is a stone 10 but absent any high it's going to ahve to do all the work itself and that is a low probability. Isn't the SLP just a little too close to the coast? I've always thought (maybe incorrectly) that these coastals need to be a little further off the coast in order to get the benefit of a more northerly wind direction, especially in this type of situation where there is no real cold source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Isn't the SLP just a little too close to the coast? I've always thought (maybe incorrectly) that these coastals need to be a little further off the coast in order to get the benefit of a more northerly wind direction, especially in this type of situation where there is no real cold source? Quick moving system, not very deep. Track along or east of Ocean City is a good track. Airmass is not cold to begin and in this case we are relying on dynamic and evaporative cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 DT's final call. Still bullish for me and spots just N&W of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RAP flips DC over at or just after 14z...HRRR (extrapolated) would do it around 16-17z..going with the HRRR on this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 DT's final call. Still bullish for me and spots just N&W of 95. 1490905_780450012002259_5986290978457895830_o.jpg I think he means 3 to 6 flakes for me and you. I would be shocked if i got 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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