mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 trend in the models ain't your friend east of the blue ridge and if it continues, even the high spots to the east of the Blue Ridge will be naso great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Basically all of the models now are a rainstorm with maybe some slop mixed in for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Changed my mind, final call totals for the area BWI: 0.4 DCA: 0.1 IAD: 2.9 FDK (outside the valley): 4.5 HGR: 4.2 York: 5 I think this pretty reasonable. In line with my thoughts as well. I can see any areas above 700' getting an extra inch or two in the hills of Carroll and No. MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Changed my mind, final call totals for the area BWI: 0.4 DCA: 0.1 IAD: 2.9 FDK (outside the valley): 4.5 HGR: 4.2 York: 5 I'd go lower at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll know by midnight where we are headed. The track is great but the cold air just marginal. We are going to need a 30.30+ baro by midnight to get it done, 30.05-30.20 just wont do it. So for Greenbelt, Beltsville, Silver Spring and points north and west up to 20 miles I think all rain is the worst, 6" the best, and 1 to up to 4 more n&w the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd go lower at IAD. I'd probably go lower at DCA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll know by midnight where we are headed. The track is great but the cold air just marginal. We are going to need a 30.30+ baro by midnight to get it done, 30.05-30.20 just wont do it. So for Greenbelt, Beltsville, Silver Spring and points north and west up to 20 miles I think all rain is the worst, 6" the best, and 1 to up to 4 more n&w the most likely. I'll know by 4pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM just crushes us out here. Too bad we are going to lose so much to a 34-35 degree air temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is Mt. Holly's new snow map. It was released less than an hour ago, yet they went snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll know by midnight where we are headed. The track is great but the cold air just marginal. We are going to need a 30.30+ baro by midnight to get it done, 30.05-30.20 just wont do it. So for Greenbelt, Beltsville, Silver Spring and points north and west up to 20 miles I think all rain is the worst, 6" the best, and 1 to up to 4 more n&w the most likely. that's not happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here is my forecast for DC 3pm update - Final Call for DC Proper - confidence level - mediumRain starting around 4 am. Mixing with and possibly changing to snow in the early afternoon. Temperatures slowly falling into the mid 30s. Mixed bag tapers off late afternoon. Accumulations of a trace to 1", with any 1" amounts mostly relegated to NW DC above 200'. I expect no street stickage at all. Any accumulated snow will be on car tops, grass, tables, benches, and will likely melt during lighter periods of precip. This is basically a non-event.Thanksgiving day will be cloudy with highs in the low to mid 40s. There may be a sprinkle, flurry or snow shower in the morning, but nothing that sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here is my forecast for DC 3pm update - Final Call for DC Proper - confidence level - medium Rain starting around 4 am. Mixing with and possibly changing to snow in the early afternoon. Temperatures slowly falling into the mid 30s. Mixed bag tapers off late afternoon. Accumulations of a trace to 1", with any 1" amounts mostly relegated to NW DC above 200'. I expect no street stickage at all. Any accumulated snow will be on car tops, grass, tables, benches, and will likely melt during lighter periods of precip. This is basically a non-event. Thanksgiving day will be cloudy with highs in the low to mid 40s. There may be a sprinkle, flurry or snow shower in the morning, but nothing that sticks. Sad forecast but accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM just crushes us out here. Too bad we are going to lose so much to a 34-35 degree air temp. that's not certain yet. You could just as easily be 32-33 and accumulating well. Right now odds do favor the warmer side but you just don't know for sure until we see how the bands of precip set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sheesh, I'm starting to worry about temps out here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here is my forecast for DC 3pm update - Final Call for DC Proper - confidence level - medium Rain starting around 4 am. Mixing with and possibly changing to snow in the early afternoon. Temperatures slowly falling into the mid 30s. Mixed bag tapers off late afternoon. Accumulations of a trace to 1", with any 1" amounts mostly relegated to NW DC above 200'. I expect no street stickage at all. Any accumulated snow will be on car tops, grass, tables, benches, and will likely melt during lighter periods of precip. This is basically a non-event. Thanksgiving day will be cloudy with highs in the low to mid 40s. There may be a sprinkle, flurry or snow shower in the morning, but nothing that sticks. Good call and I agree on all fronts (unfortunately for DC). I do like seeing a juiced SS storm early in the season - hope it bodes well once we have a more favorable air mass in the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sad forecast but accurate. +1 This was a good storm to dust off the old storm tracking routine, but it's simply not going to be cold enough, which isn't a surprise considering my calendar says November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here is my forecast for DC 3pm update - Final Call for DC Proper - confidence level - medium Rain starting around 4 am. Mixing with and possibly changing to snow in the early afternoon. Temperatures slowly falling into the mid 30s. Mixed bag tapers off late afternoon. Accumulations of a trace to 1", with any 1" amounts mostly relegated to NW DC above 200'. I expect no street stickage at all. Any accumulated snow will be on car tops, grass, tables, benches, and will likely melt during lighter periods of precip. This is basically a non-event. Thanksgiving day will be cloudy with highs in the low to mid 40s. There may be a sprinkle, flurry or snow shower in the morning, but nothing that sticks. Good call. Maybe 1" above 225' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 that's not happening... I know and in fact I don't see Any real high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18Z RGEM appears to be pretty good-DC gets .6" of frozen on their charts, not sure how accurate that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS still kinda wonky with precip but may be starting to catch on. Area just south pretty filled in with ~1" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18Z RGEM appears to be pretty good-DC gets .6" of frozen on their charts, not sure how accurate that is. For comparison, 12z RGEM had 3mm of frozen and a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is colder. GFS still kinda wonky with precip but may be starting to catch on. Area just south pretty filled in with ~1" now. Only out to hr 6 on para, but it's even colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM is uber wet, over 1.5" for DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Final call: Details for anyone interested: http://madusweather.com/2014/11/winter-storm-threat-november-26-final-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Final call: 20141126_MAsnow_final.png Details for anyone interested: http://madusweather.com/2014/11/winter-storm-threat-november-26-final-call/ boo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Better check the GFS initialization considering the surface was +14C out here a little while ago. Was only slightly cooler at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Final call:20141126_MAsnow_final.pngDetails for anyone interested: http://madusweather.com/2014/11/winter-storm-threat-november-26-final-call/ You've been remarkably consistent since yesterday... good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is colder. Haven't looked at surface, but the 850-975mb layer is colder than 18z. Still really borderline though for the entire 12-21z period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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