WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't see how any weather model could predict temperatures with any more than plus/minus 2 degree accuracy at 24 hours lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro is awful. .even leesburg. What a terrible hobby I was a little puzzled when you upped your forecast on your fb page... I'm not too surprised by the EURO. My climo is pretty comparable to Leesburg, and I'm expecting 1-2", probably very sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Feeling way better about our area today. In my 9 years in northern Carroll ive never lost out in a marginal temp scenario. Missing the precip is a much bigger risk, when the issue is temps our elevation always seems to tip the scales in our favor. Give us a good deform band and we will do good. I hope so, but I think you stand a better chance than me with this one for king of the accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I hope so, but I think you stand a better chance than me with this one for king of the accumulations. agreed, and you will do better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREFS are the wettest they've been out my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Low dewpoints, looking like some clearing this evening..........heavy precip........we might just do better than everyone is thinking. Reminds me of a spring storm......warm the day before, low dews, crashing temps when precip starts. We have one real big advantage over the spring storms........sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREFs went back to being very wet... DCA ~1.3" 24 hr QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I was doing some reading in the CPA thread. I am very bearish overall in my outlook on this storm, not even solely based on the warmth of the 12z Euro, but also because of the set-up and less than stellar antecedent airmass. I have been checking in on some of the nowcasting tools, just simple temp obs, DP, and satellite imagery. The WV loop makes the low track on the NAM look to be taking shape along with the deep pacific injective on associated moisture. What I have noticed is that the dew points are respectably lower at this hour than forecast, on the order of 2-4 degrees and in some locales more. I agree with what Eskimo Joe has been saying about these things, as well as the clearing that is occurring on the satellite view out in WPA, WV, and those locations. Keeping that in mind, I am not saying the models are underestimating snowfall in the 95 area, but I do feel like the N/W areas could be headed towards snowfall totals the NAM has outlined as well as the UKMET. Additionally, for the 95 areas, if the rates do match up with what is being promoted by the models and we can run lower on the DP's that are leaking eastward, then maybe, just maybe 1-2 inches could be seen in the cities regardless of what DCA reports. I am not completely sold this will bust. I'm going to give my final amounts this afternoon around 4:45 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 agreed, and you will do better than me. elevation is going to be killer with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I hope so, but I think you stand a better chance than me with this one for king of the accumulations. Manchester does do a little better then Westminster but usually not a crazy difference. Biggest I ever saw was a storm in 2007 late in the season where Westminster got about 4 inches and Manchester got 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Manchester does do a little better then Westminster but usually not a crazy difference. Biggest I ever saw was a storm in 2007 late in the season where Westminster got about 4 inches and Manchester got 8. you're thinking of 3/7/07? There was also 3/16/07 up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 2/25/07? Nevermind, you're thinking of 3/7/07? it was 3/17/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Manchester does do a little better then Westminster but usually not a crazy difference. Biggest I ever saw was a storm in 2007 late in the season where Westminster got about 4 inches and Manchester got 8. 3/30/2014 Manchester somehow managed to get 9"... Westminster picked up about 2-3". I don't think anyone else recieved over 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 it was 3/17/07 Yea I added that right before you replied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Manchester does do a little better then Westminster but usually not a crazy difference. Biggest I ever saw was a storm in 2007 late in the season where Westminster got about 4 inches and Manchester got 8. almost a foot in southern pa. I got 2-3 in reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 elevation is going to be killer with this. we will be fine. youll flip before i will, but we will manage to get at least 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Manchester does do a little better then Westminster but usually not a crazy difference. Biggest I ever saw was a storm in 2007 late in the season where Westminster got about 4 inches and Manchester got 8. I guess you mean 3/16/07 I got 4.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 you're thinking of 3/7/07? There was also 3/16/07 up there. it was 3/16 for sure, I only had a few inches in the early March storm, the heavier bands stayed south of me. There was also a storm in April a few years back where I somehow eeked out about 4" between 2 waves and Westminster barely got a coating. But other then those 2 I dont remember much more then an inch or two difference in storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 it was 3/16 for sure, I only had a few inches in the early March storm, the heavier bands stayed south of me. There was also a storm in April a few years back where I somehow eeked out about 4" between 2 waves and Westminster barely got a coating. But other then those 2 I dont remember much more then an inch or two difference in storms. I think Westminster got into heavier bands with the 2/13/14 monster last year than Manchester did. Sometimes it does flip the other way if bands don't reach you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 we will be fine. youll flip before i will, but we will manage to get at least 4" yeah, i'm thinking 4 is a good starting point too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 yeah, i'm thinking 4 is a good starting point too. I told my email folks 4-5" for Westminster/Hampstead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM certainly is wet.........over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM certainly is wet.........over a large area. and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think Westminster got into heavier bands with the 2/13/14 monster last year than Manchester did. Sometimes it does flip the other way if bands don't reach you. I wasn't there but looking at the coop reports it looked like Manchester did really well in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM changes DC over in the 12-2pm time range. So obviously it's warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 it was 3/16 for sure, I only had a few inches in the early March storm, the heavier bands stayed south of me. There was also a storm in April a few years back where I somehow eeked out about 4" between 2 waves and Westminster barely got a coating. But other then those 2 I dont remember much more then an inch or two difference in storms. the early march storm was only a clipper but it was exceptionally cold for march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 and warmer Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I wasn't there but looking at the coop reports it looked like Manchester did really well in that storm. we got 23.5 total here. 16 with the main low and 7.5 with the ull in the evening. Westminster got more with first part and less with the ull but ended up with about 24 total i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Changed my mind, final call totals for the area BWI: 0.4 DCA: 0.1 IAD: 2.9 FDK (outside the valley): 4.5 HGR: 4.2 York: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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