Scuddz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 [pseudo-zwyts]Well, it is in my backyard, but I can't speak for Jessup. That's like 100 miles away for me [/pseudo-zwyts] but I live at like the highest pt in Jessup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Isn't an event like this something that won't affect the roads much? It could snow 4-6" and really not impact travel at all (in theory, since a snowflake around here impacts travel) From what I can tell from the soundings it looks like I95 from dc to balimore, the dendrites growth region looks poor, where looking at mostly spikes and small plates at best, these tiny crystals don't stand up will to warm bl temps or warm soil temps. I would imagine the roads will stay mainly wet but grassy surfaces to see that accumulation when snow finally does make it to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 FWIW, SNE is happily tossing the GFS' torching boundary layer. I say toss everything except the Euro*. * - unless the Euro is warm and then I'm back to a NAM/Ukie blend I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just a few hours of rad cooling after sunset would go a long ways in knocking down sfc temps. The last few frames of vis sat may give some hope. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z EURO has DCA straddling 0/-1 850s at 12z WED with a 1007 L SE of Wilmington NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro looks warmer and drier to me, initially but still a few more panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 A bit drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's clear when you read it but most people just look and see that their county is in the pink...assuming they know where their county is...sad how many people who don't know where they live on a map It is mind numbing how many co-workers don't know what Montgomery County looks like. "Huh, that's not Maryland...it's Virginia". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0.75 - 1" for everyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0.75 - 1" for everyone.. So now its the NAM/UKIE vs EURO/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0.75 - 1" for everyone.. where's the heaviest stripe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Smidge warmer at the sfc again 36 at DCA at 18z... bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Pretty much everyone .9-1" in the DC/Balt region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nice rainstorm on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So now its the NAM/UKIE vs EURO/GFS? If thats the case. Then the writing is on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So now its the NAM/UKIE vs EURO/GFS? there are no camps for me,..every camp results in nothing more than a cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Pretty much everyone .9-1" in the DC/Balt region. That doesn't sound so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 based on various levels looks like a flip somewhere mid-to-late morning around DC but super marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 UK is weather porn. Feeling way better about our area today. In my 9 years in northern Carroll ive never lost out in a marginal temp scenario. Missing the precip is a much bigger risk, when the issue is temps our elevation always seems to tip the scales in our favor. Give us a good deform band and we will do good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That doesn't sound so bad. pretty minor changes.. still about .5-.6" in 12z-18z period but each degree warmer is a dagger around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It'll be primarily wet for you, me and anyone else along or east of 95. That doesn't sound so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Blueridge/winchester in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Smidge warmer at the sfc again 36 at DCA at 18z... bleh. yea that's just not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro doesn't even seem all that impressive for anyone in MD east of HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Blueridge/winchester in a good spot Surface temps are even an issue out here Bob. I guess a couple of inches on the grass is better than nothing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Everyone always said to me when I still lived in VA Beach to move north if I want snow so badly. Well, I finally move north and I still get rain. DC Sucks. I am hugging the NAM. It has to win one of these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Everyone always said to me when I still lived in VA Beach to move north if I want snow so badly. Well, I finally move north and I still get rain. DC Sucks. I am hugging the NAM. It has to win one of these days. Well. If they told you to to move to DC for snow. You got some bad information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Everyone always said to me when I still lived in VA Beach to move north if I want snow so badly. Well, I finally move north and I still get rain. DC Sucks. I am hugging the NAM. It has to win one of these days. I think they meant north as in Canada. I'm thinking that if this storm weren't pegged to hit the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, we would have all given up on it being anything but a chance for conversational snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 forecast temperature profiles for DCA at 15z tomorrow from the 12z NAM (red) NAM nest (green) and GFS (blue). The GFS is way, way too warm for snow. The NAM nest is still too warm, but the depth of its warm near-sfc layer is not as deep as the GFS layer. The NAM is by far the coldest. The nest also has an odd warm layer around 700 mb due to strong southerly flow around that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I bet the South Mountain welcome center and picnic areas on I-70 will be a good spot tomorrow -- I drove the 33 miles from Germantown last winter and saw 6" of snow while I had just rain at home (Feb 3, I think). I'd do it tomorrow if not for holiday traffic worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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