PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Para is even warmer. 38-41 @ 1pm Maybe we can turn this into a tropical event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 WPC still very bullish with their snow probs.... either they are going to pull a claven or they will bust badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's too borderline to get that finite. Both could be right or wrong. We'll see how things looks tonight. No matter which way you shake it, the NAM was a step in the right direction and the GFS the wrong way. Go in the middle and pray the euro saves us. Lol well i guess if ive learned anything from living down here for 3 years now usually the ones that are forecasted to be 5-10 we get an inch and the ones that we are borderline overperform. Appreciate your insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 obs/radar/etc thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44977-thanksgiving-eve-storm-obs-and-nowcasting/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LWX taking a lil while with their morning AFD update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 MDZ003-501-502-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-260000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.141126T1100Z-141126T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0012.141126T0800Z-141126T2300Z/ WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY- JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL- EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND... STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL... HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD... BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER... FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 1500 FEET...6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS ABOVE 1500 FEET. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BELOW 1500 WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS ABOVE 1500 FEET. LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BELOW 1500 FEET. * WINDS...NORTH BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 MDZ004>006-VAZ042-501-260000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.141126T1100Z-141126T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0012.141126T1100Z-141126T2300Z/ FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...LEESBURG... WARRENTON 1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND MASON-DIXON LINE. 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. * TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Pity advisory incoming for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 MDZ009>011-VAZ050>053-502-260000- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0022.141126T1300Z-141126T2300Z/ MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX 1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A COATING TO AN INCH NEAR INTERSTATE 95. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 8 AND 11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH 2 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Xbox says DCA/NOVA jackpot with the trailing vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Xbox says DCA/NOVA jackpot with the trailing vort howza bout' southern burbs of Balt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 howza bout' southern burbs of Balt? looking (not so) good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 He marches to the beat of his own drummer in these threads. Been that way for years. At 2 pm tomorrow afternoon, DC is predicted to have a temperature of 35 and a dew point of 33. Well, here is the latest from LWX for DC: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1pm. High near 39. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is a furnace in the low-levels. It's probably only a 1-2C change from before, but that's enough. our average high temp now is around 55 degrees...what could possibly go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z GGEM since I am pulling out all the model stops 24 - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/608_100.gif 36 - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/610_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 looking (not so) good IF that map happens it's gonna be hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014MDZ004>006-VAZ042-501-260000-/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.141126T1100Z-141126T2300Z//O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0012.141126T1100Z-141126T2300Z/FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...LEESBURG...WARRENTON1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND MASON-DIXON LINE. 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE.* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. how am i at warning with 1-3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Mos says Gfs should be predicting high of 61 today, I highly doubt that will verify. Shame the only thing that really matters here are the lows we see tonight, here the gfs looks more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z UKIE at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREF is pretty warm at the SFC for much of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 how am i at warning with 1-3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 how am i at warning with 1-3 inches? Look west young man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Look west young man.... by the time tomorrow comes around, you'll be urging him to go west me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z UKIE SLP postions: 24 -- 1006mb L right by Wilmington NC 30 -- 1001mb L east of Ocean City by ~100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukmet has #2 verification scores for the globals behind the euro. I'm hugging it for an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 UK is weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seems like deeper the low..the colder. Gfs 1012 low not impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukmet has #2 verification scores for the globals behind the euro. I'm hugging it for an hour. UKMET is magical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukmet has #2 verification scores for the globals behind the euro. I'm hugging it for an hour. what's the surface look like Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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