DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I started some threads for a few of the good events last year so why not. GGEM up next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Slop tracking mode engaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I started some threads for a few of the good events last year so why not. GGEM up next. Considering we need good UVVs, good call starting this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't understand why the in house models of ABC7 has the precip ending at 2pm (last time i checked) And now weather.com (like they are reliable (sarcastic scoff)) has precip ending before or right around sunset wednesday. Is is really going to go that quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 i play guitar between the 00z gfs and the euro...kills time fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Too bad we have to wait 2 hours for the euro.... I didn't even look at the 0z gfs/nam panels. Just read the thread. After reading the 2/12-13 threads today the similar discos between models are almost identical in some ways. Certainley not the same setup but the camps are reruns. My over under yesterday was 5". I'm dropping that to 4" for now but as usual we won't really know until gametime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't understand why the in house models of ABC7 has the precip ending at 2pm (last time i checked) And now weather.com (like they are reliable (sarcastic scoff)) has precip ending before or right around sunset wednesday. Is is really going to go that quickly? GFS only shows 0.06" of QPF at DCA after 1 p.m. - if that's right we're looking at just a few hours of wet snow, max. Would be pretty underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I didn't even look at the 0z gfs/nam panels. Just read the thread. After reading the 2/12-13 threads today the similar discos between models are almost identical in some ways. Certainley not the same setup but the camps are reruns. My over under yesterday was 5". I'm dropping that to 4" for now but as usual we won't really know until gametime tried to get a cell phone pic of the clownmap on cable news during the "wait for ferguson".. came out cloudy. still a complete joke nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Feel sorry for the peeps in the first thread that had hundreds of posts and will get 1/8 inch on their trash can lids and wet roads. I'll get to watch pretty snowfall all day, but won't need to worry about shoveling the slushy coating on hard surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 i play guitar between the 00z gfs and the euro...kills time fast Sweet! I play the drums. We should start a band. Call ourselves Deformation--rim shot! Anyway...let's hope we can score some Euro love in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Feel sorry for the peeps in the first thread that had hundreds of posts and will get 1/8 inch on their trash can lids and wet roads. I'll get to watch pretty snowfall all day, but won't need to worry about shoveling the slushy coating on hard surfaces. but you live in Centreville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't understand why the in house models of ABC7 has the precip ending at 2pm (last time i checked) And now weather.com (like they are reliable (sarcastic scoff)) has precip ending before or right around sunset wednesday. Is is really going to go that quickly? "in-house" local news model? haha that's a good one. When you have access to global models and the top weather minds in the country on this board, there is no need to turn on the local news for your weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I didn't even look at the 0z gfs/nam panels. Just read the thread. After reading the 2/12-13 threads today the similar discos between models are almost identical in some ways. Certainley not the same setup but the camps are reruns. My over under yesterday was 5". I'm dropping that to 4" for now but as usual we won't really know until gametime People really do fall into predictable patterns here. You can usually guess when certain posters will appear after a bad model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 gfs is terrible haha...worst run of the day. How did this go from a 20 hour storm to a 6 hour storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 gfs is terrible haha...worst run of the day. How did this go from a 20 hour storm to a 6 hour storm? no blocking, fast mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 gfs is terrible haha...worst run of the day. How did this go from a 20 hour storm to a 6 hour storm? kicker that is coming in stronger I suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Xbox looks better than Atari......but still warm for me, which is all I care about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 it's early in the season and a week from today the snow will be long gone from even those places that max out nice exercise for later in the season (I hope!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 People really do fall into predictable patterns here. You can usually guess when certain posters will appear after a bad model run. If dc-balt gets less than .9 qpf I'll consider the event a bust based on all guidance. Ptype is a different beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0z GFS snow totals are looking nice... although may be a bit overdone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 PARA is about 0.75" for DC.....with about 0.3" falling after 15z.... BUT....it has around 0.15" with the vort passage...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The Elizabeth Kubler-Ross stages of loss/grief/facing death: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. All too often we work through them as we anticipate a storm and our expectations change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0z GFS snow totals are looking nice... although may be a bit overdone... The WxBell algorithm for their snowmaps is flawed - it vastly overdoes snow totals, especially in marginal setups like this. I think part of that is to generate social media hits - great marketing ploy by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM totals are nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0z GFS snow totals are looking nice... although may be a bit overdone... that must be snowfall on the parallel planet produced by the gfs2 because it ain't here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM! RGEM! RGEM! you're off to a big start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Para GFS is a nudge warmer, but also trended slightly west with the Low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The WxBell algorithm for their snowmaps is flawed - it vastly overdoes snow totals, especially in marginal setups like this. I think part of that is to generate social media hits - great marketing ploy by them. How are the algorithms flawed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The Elizabeth Kubler-Ross stages of loss/grief/facing death: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. All too often we work through them as we anticipate a storm and our expectations change. maybe, but stressing over model runs is a whole lot better than stressing over SSTA and snow cover in Asia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Folks, please don't post WxBell graphics. Describe the output for our area in words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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