jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Another issue is that models often underdo mid level warming. The more of the mid levels we can get to head east of NJ, the better. I guess it's still early enough in the season for atrociously warm air to make it up in the atmosphere that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think east of the William Floyd will be very tough for accumulating snow. Even the NAM doesn't have them getting below 37 or so in the heavy precip. The really questionable area probably starts around Islip and west. I think at least a watch should be extended to NYC at this point. The sharpest cutoff had to be the retrogading storm in Feb 2010. It was snowing here while it was raining just to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The sharpest cutoff had to be the retrogading storm in Feb 2010. It was snowing here while it was raining just to my east. Literally Jamaica LIRR station was the R/S line for hours that day. Luckily for us though it headed N and NW and plenty of deformation precip was left to drop up to 12" on coastal areas. This is a progressive storm that won't cut off. Dec 2000 was bad as well. 40 miles east of me had nearly zilch-I had more than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Literally Jamaica LIRR station was the R/S line for hours that day. Luckily for us though it headed N and NW and plenty of deformation precip was left to drop up to 12" on coastal areas. This is a progressive storm that won't cut off. Dec 2000 was bad as well. 40 miles east of me had nearly zilch-I had more than a foot. I had a lot of snow in the Dec 2000 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sleet is less common in miller A storms. Usually they are found in miller Bs prior to or during any coastal transfer when the primary still exists. I forget if the Valentine's Day storm of 07 was a miller A or B which was the biggest sleet storm I've ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sleet is less common in miller A storms. Usually they are found in miller Bs prior to or during any coastal transfer when the primary still exists. I forget if the Valentine's Day storm of 07 was a miller A or B which was the biggest sleet storm I've ever had. Miller B I had 4 inches of sleet with temps in the teens to lower 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sleet is less common in miller A storms. Usually they are found in miller Bs prior to or during any coastal transfer when the primary still exists. I forget if the Valentine's Day storm of 07 was a miller A or B which was the biggest sleet storm I've ever had. Miller B. There was a primary that cut up the TN Valley and then transferred to the coast. Sleet got all the way up to Albany. I'm always wary of mid level warm layers specifically because of that storm-a day before I was supposed to get up to 2 feet of snow at UNV and instead had half or more of it fall as pellets. It froze literally into a goopy cement the next day, and was a travel nightmare in PA requiring several interstates and main highways be shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There were two sleet storms that year and I believe one was supposed to be mostly rain but the low level cold was too strong to eliminate. It was ridiculously cold for the sleet storm I believe it got down to 19-20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Valentine's Day and ST Patrick's Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Valentine's Day and ST Patrick's Day Both huge hits where I was in school at Middlebury College. Had 25" in the V-day storm and around 12" in St. Patty's Day. The 2/14/07 blizzard was a record breaker for VT and the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sleet is less common in miller A storms. Usually they are found in miller Bs prior to or during any coastal transfer when the primary still exists. I forget if the Valentine's Day storm of 07 was a miller A or B which was the biggest sleet storm I've ever had. I remember that storm very vividly. I walked 3 miles during the height of it because I was a dumb high school kid. It was like walking on sand. As far as this event goes, what's the record snowfall at knyc on 11/26? Or has someone posted that info already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREFS plumes have just about the entire area except ACY at or over 7" for 03 run. Even ACY is over 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd imagine all of the Upton CWA minus Suffolk will go to a watch in the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is another qpf bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Not sure if this belongs here, but... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 300 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE- EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER- EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-BENNINGTON- WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE... LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS... HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS... CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN... ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH... PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON... ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS... AMENIA...MILLERTON...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE... BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 300 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND SOME DRIFTING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 16 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR. * TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL... MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wow at the NAM for the Hudson Valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM absolutely crushes the HV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Another QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 06Z NAM is easily 6"+ for the Lower HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 06Z NAM is easily 6"+ for the Lower HV. lol.. if you were to believe the NAM some places north of you are looking at 15-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 lol.. if you were to believe the NAM some places north of you are looking at 15-18" I'd watch this carefully. The fact that most of the guidance has boosted snowfall amounts significantly might end up closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 06Z NAM is easily 6"+ for the Lower HV.Yes indeed.....6"+ for most in the lower Hudson valley and NW NJ up through parts of CT, MA, NH, VT, and Maine. Probably more like 10" in some of those areas.....Very expansive precip shield, and where it does snow, it snows very hard. Taken verbatim, it shows a sloppy inch or so of accumulated snow by the time it winds down in NYC....a few inches as you head further west into NJ. Boston a few inches as well, and long island not much if any. During the height of the storm, it looks like some warmth pushes in at 700mb. Hopefully the NAM is "over-amped" and after all it does tend to over correct itself (it went from showing everything way out to sea to a very wound up solution within just a day or so anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd watch this carefully. The fact that most of the guidance has boosted snowfall amounts significantly might end up closer to reality. NAM also warmed things up a bit for NYC/LI as well as ENE. Sleet signature for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM also warmed things up a bit for NYC/LI as well as ENE. Sleet signature for a bit That 700 mB layer is pretty tricky. That's the only real concern atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It seems like the HPC web site is not updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's good to be back. So right now NYC is looking at a general 3-5", less of course with a sleet depending on that sleet temperature layer. Up here in New Paltz, we looking at a bomb especially if we look at the NAM haha. The runs today will be the nail in the coffin IMO. Great to be back for an eventful winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well let's see. Couldn't sleep n turned on the WC. Lo n behold they're showing 3-5" for Freehold yet <1" for Lakewood. Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RA/RASN IN MORNING CHANGING TO SN INAFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATION: 4-8 INCHES ACCUMULATIONCITY TERMINALS/8-11 INCHES NW TERMINALS/2-6 INCHES LONGISLAND/COASTAL CT TERMINALS. NE-NW WINDS G30+ KT POSSIBLE IN THEAFTERNOON/NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Upton posted a WSW for 4-8" for nyc and northern Nassau. Not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 good morning to all..and good news for me,as living in the northwest Bronx might save me from rain,but not the heavy snow..2 ingredients i must put out there are dynamic cooling and evap cooling..thermal profiles are usually pretty good in these parts of the city but tricky everywhere else.as this baby bombs out all levels will be cold for snow(cept imm coastlines of the city,l.i and coastal new eng) but when a storm goes in to bombogenesis mode.all bets are off,still some time of course to see what unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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