swamplover56 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This thread is getting bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 lmao euro running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Pbp for euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Based on the New England forum Euro is slightly colder with the overall thermal profile and a tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 very curious to see what Euro does. But as I go back a couple/ few days, the storm and models have been very consistent, with oscillations east/west of less than 100 miles (generally). So chalk it up to a win for most of the models and good science. That of course comes with a caveat, that it doesnt go one way or another after this point, which is entirely possible. What is the most you've seen a storm move in the 36hr time frame. I know Ive seen at least a 100 mile deviation. If Euro shows west, the sites go dead. if it stays stable with GFS or Nam this evening, the sites stay active, I'd be very surprised if the EURO showed a west surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Main thing is we keep the "I hope it shows snow" posts front & center...focusing is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seems like a very similar run to 12z and they're talking up Boston's chances in the SNE forum which is good for the NYC area. Anyone with feedback for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The Euro is going to make the majority of this subforum happy. Slightly colder and the low passes just SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 very curious to see what Euro does. But as I go back a couple/ few days, the storm and models have been very consistent, with oscillations east/west of less than 100 miles (generally). So chalk it up to a win for most of the models and good science. That of course comes with a caveat, that it doesnt go one way or another after this point, which is entirely possible. What is the most you've seen a storm move in the 36hr time frame. I know Ive seen at least a 100 mile deviation. If Euro shows west, the sites go dead. if it stays stable with GFS or Nam this evening, the sites stay active, I'd be very surprised if the EURO showed a west surprise.I know that feeling all too well, I was in central PA for five years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How's the precip field, any less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seems like a very similar run to 12z and they're talking up Boston's chances in the SNE forum which is good for the NYC area. Anyone with feedback for our area? Everything on the models has been borderline for our area so someone would have to check the soundings for LI...but the interior gets smacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Everything on the models has been borderline for our area so someone would have to check the soundings for LI...but the interior gets smacked. Yea I know living in central nassau county I'm pretty much biting my nails at this point...could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 JM looks like all levels except the surface are below freezing for our area but idk if there's a sneaky warm layer in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro is slightly colder than 12z but similiar track. This is going to be a really tough call for the NYC area. I could see this bust in a positive way if all the forecasts are for low amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Everything on the models has been borderline for our area so someone would have to check the soundings for LI...but the interior gets smacked. I don't have any access to that stuff but the layers turning colder is a good sign. It's perhaps picking up on the northerly winds and strong onset of precip. We probably lose the first hour or so to rain but if we flip to a heavy thump snow it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hr 42 there's a warm layer at 700mb that makes it into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 But I think it stops before CPK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro is slightly colder than 12z but similiar track. This is going to be a really tough call for the NYC area. I could see this bust in a positive way if all the forecasts are for low amounts. The BM track is probably a reality at this point since every model is locking onto it, the keys are what I've been saying-the wind direction and strong onset of precip. We need the boundary layer to crash to 33-34 quick to get snow to accumulate. The rest hopefully will be history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hr 42 there's a warm layer at 700mb that makes it into the city. Oh wow... How ironic would that be if it turns into a sleetstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hr 42 there's a warm layer at 700mb that makes it into the city. Is the precip layout similar to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 But I think it stops before CPK It stops right near Brooklyn. Brooklyn is at 0 and then gets warmer just west of there. After hour 42, it cools off nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro is slightly colder than 12z but similiar track. This is going to be a really tough call for the NYC area. I could see this bust in a positive way if all the forecasts are for low amounts. Its not colder - same 850`s are still minus 2 at hr 42 and minus 3 at hr 48 BL 34 . No change 1 .1 inches of liquid . warmest 700 mb at 42 is still minus 2 at knyc at 42 JFK 700 mb are 0 then plus 2 at the NS boarder at 42 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Its not colder - same 850`s are still minus 2 at hr 42 and minus 3 at hr 48 BL 34 . No change 1 .1 inches of liquid . warmest 700 mb at 42 is still minus 2 at knyc at 42 JFK 700 mb are 0 plus 2 at the NS boarder at 42 . Thanks man. Not a bad run. Wxbell snow map barely has anything for eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 But I think it stops before CPK Yup. At HR 42, it's snowing at Northern NYC (Bronx/Northern Manhattan). Yet there's a wintry mix (snow/sleet fest) for The Southern half of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Is the precip layout similar to 12z? Everyone looks to be over an inch except NEPA and maybe extreme NWNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Its not colder - same 850`s are still minus 2 at hr 42 and minus 3 at hr 48 BL 34 . No change 1 .1 inches of liquid . warmest 700 mb at 42 is still minus 2 at knyc at 42 JFK 700 mb are 0 then plus 2 at the NS boarder at 42 . As we thought, east of JFK this will be tough. JFK may also mark the transition from due N winds to more NE/ENE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Warmest 700 mb . Cross Island parkway and down I95 . Then cools down . The problem E of JFK the BL never gets below 37 . The park is 34 and 32 - 33 NW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks man. Not a bad run. Wxbell snow map barely has anything for eastern LI I think east of the William Floyd will be very tough for accumulating snow. Even the NAM doesn't have them getting below 37 or so in the heavy precip. The really questionable area probably starts around Islip and west. I think at least a watch should be extended to NYC at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can anyone speak to how the new Euro handles the kicker vort over the Plains compared to its 12z run? I haven't seen any chatter about the fact that some of the guidance tonight has retarded that feature which would bode for a more westerly track of our storm, I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Oh wow... How ironic would that be if it turns into a sleetstorm. I could see that at the start before the changeover, especially in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.