jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm going to go with neither. Once east of port Jeff there isn't much of a south shore north shore thing it's really a Nassau construct. Port Jeff station over to stony Brook can be a great snow spot with good topography and potential for sound enhancement. I don't expect them to disappoint here. This might be one of those situations where being further west from there helps since we have little water to fetch from on a north wind while they have more. The Sound is still quite warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This might be one of those situations where being further west from there helps since we have little water to fetch from on a north wind while they have more. The Sound is still quite warm.Yes the sound is very warm, and even this will set up some temp profile issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yes the sound is very warm, and even this will set up some temp profile issues. Just throw ten billion ice cubes in & problem solved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just throw ten billion ice cubes in & problem solved... How about a trillion snowflakes and a little cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is very much like that January 08 event or even March 1999, very bad air mass, one event had the dynamics to get it over to snow and the other did not Yes but in March 1999 the water was 15 degrees colder...badly placed anticyclones are the biggest potential problem for otherwise potentially good snowfalls on any East Coast checklist...<this presupposes a favorable track by the cyclone itself> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How about a trillion snowflakes and a little cold rain? Edward, I consider you good...and as King George the 3rd said when confronted by his psychiatrist about the need to "acquire a better conceit of himself"...the King gave a wonderful retort..."Well, I'm King of England...a man can have no better conceit of himself than that." I think those two assessments very much share the frontier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Edward, I consider you good...and as King George the 3rd said when confronted by his psychiatrist about the need to "acquire a better conceit of himself"...the King gave a wonderful retort..."Well, I'm King of England...a man can have no better conceit of himself than that." I think those two assessments very much share the frontier... I must confess my math was a little off. A trillion snowflakes is enough to cover 14 square miles an inch deep, which is probably inadequate for substantially cooling the sound; even with a little extra cold rain. FWIW, if the north wind doth blow, I think we'll count at least a few trillion snowflakes between Smithtown and PJ. Strongs Neck, of course, will add another trace into the coop record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What a forecast nightmare for NYC and the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Midnight in NJ. Temperatures still in the mid 60's and dews not far behind. Cooler air bleeding in from Canada on light westerly winds behind our cold front. Looking upstream, cooler and dryer air looks to be still a ways away in central PA. We are on pace to bust low on temps and dews tonight across NJ. Case in point- Somerset airpot. MAV and MET guidance for 1am- 60 or 61 and 50 or 51. With 45 minutes until 6z, currently reading 64/58 in nearby Warren, and bot T/Td have actually risen in the last hour. http://www.njweather.org/station/26 It will be interesting to see if this persists through the night. I just am not seeing the mechanisms needed to get accumulating snowfall on the coastal plain. If it's going to be evap cooling, the existing airmass needs to get replaced quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Strongs Neck, of course, will add another trace into the coop record. The best thing I can say about the Setauket coop is that it has put together a record of staggering prolixity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What a forecast nightmare for NYC and the coast I think it all comes down to how much precip is wasted on the front end. If you guys can flip to frozen quick then m pretty sure warning criteria will be met in KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is very much like that January 08 event or even March 1999, very bad air mass, one event had the dynamics to get it over to snow and the other did notJan 08 is in my top 5 least fav winter events. And that really can't be discounted here and a big part of my hesitance to go over 3" here. It's a good compromise between the complete and painful bust of 08 and what could happen if things line up and we get the microscopic thread trough that nano needle.I think 08 developed later then this and thus dynamics came into play to late for the SS and the writing was on the wall really before it even started. I don't think that's the case here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I must confess my math was a little off. A trillion snowflakes is enough to cover 14 square miles an inch deep, which is probably inadequate for substantially cooling the sound; even with a little extra cold rain. FWIW, if the north wind doth blow, I think we'll count at least a few trillion snowflakes between Smithtown and PJ. Strongs Neck, of course, will add another trace into the coop record. The snowflakes would be from SNE, and will inevitably be corrupted somehow. Can never trust those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The RPM futurecasts that the TV mets use are so wrong and horrendous it's not even funny. They oughta replace that or upgrade it somehow. Barely even accumulates 1-3 inches north and west according to that. We all know that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think it all comes down to how much precip is wasted on the front end. If you guys can flip to frozen quick then m pretty sure warning criteria will be met in KNYC Agree Jan 08 is in my top 5 least fav winter events. And that really can't be discounted here and a big part of my hesitance to go over 3" here. It's a good compromise between the complete and painful bust of 08 and what could happen if things line up and we get the microscopic thread trough that nano needle. I think 08 developed later then this and thus dynamics came into play to late for the SS and the writing was on the wall really before it even started. I don't think that's the case here Heavy snow warning was issued for NYC with 6-12 inches. I didn't even see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The snowflakes would be from SNE, and will inevitably be corrupted somehow. Can never trust those things. I recall having trouble with related rates in calculus class...along with several other topics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Jan 08 is in my top 5 least fav winter events. And that really can't be discounted here and a big part of my hesitance to go over 3" here. It's a good compromise between the complete and painful bust of 08 and what could happen if things line up and we get the microscopic thread trough that nano needle. I think 08 developed later then this and thus dynamics came into play to late for the SS and the writing was on the wall really before it even started. I don't think that's the case here I almost held off on going back to State College for that event. Luckily I didn't. I see your point though-it was too late a development for even coastal SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I didn't even see a flake. You mean no mirrors were available? <OK, that goes too far...lol> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You mean no mirrors were available? <OK, that goes too far...lol> Seemed like storms always busted when a Heavy Snow Warning was issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anything on the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seemed like storms always busted when a Heavy Snow Warning was issued When did they discontinue those warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anything on the CMC? That's what the rgem is for under 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anything on the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You mean no mirrors were available? <OK, that goes too far...lol> Hahahaha no offense to snow but that was good. Almost euro time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 When did they discontinue those warnings? A few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I almost held off on going back to State College for that event. Luckily I didn't. I see your point though-it was too late a development for even coastal SNE. I was living right on the boardwalk for that one good thing you didn't. I sat and watched the rain fall trough the boardwalk lights from my living room until I eventually fell asleep. Woke up to a very gray beach and it never did go to snow not even a flake. Scary really, that could easily happen here. I to am not liking just how warm and moist it is out right now as we get closer to the event. Warm water. Marginal air mass. Dreams of 08. Really putting my bets on rates and the fact that a good ole miller A is going to bring allot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The snowflakes would be from SNE, and will inevitably be corrupted somehow. Can never trust those things. And SNE will of course want them back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nope...I read it in a book called The Federal Courts....written by Posner...he was editorializing on the length (and rather jejune nature) of the opinions of some federal judges. It has been indelibly etched in my consciousness ever since. I will resist the urge to use it in describing the posts of any regulars, although it is a powerful urge in one or two well-known cases. BTW, I've seen more than one weenie map showing some love for our corner of the island. Would be easy to ignore if it was only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I was living right on the boardwalk for that one good thing you didn't. I sat and watched the rain fall trough the boardwalk lights from my living room until I eventually fell asleep. Woke up to a very gray beach and it never did go to snow not even a flake. Scary really, that could easily happen here. I to am not liking just how warm and moist it is out right now as we get closer to the event. Warm water. Marginal air mass. Dreams of 08. Really putting my bets on rates and the fact that a good ole miller A is going to bring allot of moisture. Uggh, It Could Happen Tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 can we please keep the thread clear from banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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