Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Given the importance of dynamics with this system, I think that the GFS is about out of its range on this one. The mesoscale models should be taking the lead with this now. I would put a lot of stock into the 0z EURO run tonight, and then after that its the RGEM, NAM, and eventually HRRR and RAP. It's a good sign to see the NAM and RGEM in such great agreement. Things are definitely getting more interesting for areas closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Different setup this time, but I was looking back at the forums for the mid February storm (specifically in the Hudson Valley) and at a time when the Euro and most of the mesos were suggesting 1-2 feet of snow, the GFS had as little as 3-6". Most of us remember how that turned out. There were so many snow events last February I don't know which one you mean...I do know that in one of them, snowdrifts reaches the eaves in the lucky spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There were so many snow events last February I don't know which one you mean...I do know that in one of them, snowdrifts reaches the eaves in the lucky spots. The gfs failed miserably for the 2/13-14 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM w/the Kuchera snow accum method.... Contact: Evan Kuchera0.5 degree isobaric GFS GRIB data from NCEP.The snowfall accumulation algorithm used on these charts is as follows:1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP)2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP)3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP)The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The gfs failed miserably for the 2/13-14 storm So, in other words you agree with me? <Rhetorical question> Even the February before...2013...it had one foot totals over the Island & SNE...and some spots ultimately saw more than a yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM w/the Kuchera snow accum method.... Looks very much like a climo map with few anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM w/dynamic ratios prints out around a foot for HPN Soundings look pretty darn good actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks very much like a climo map with few anomalies.I think it's a real nail biter for our areas-if it's snowing away by 10-11am and temps are crashing, it might be a significant event even for the coast. The more northerly winds shown on the modeling will help with the temps. But we can see on soundings how the Sound might still hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 HPN: KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This storm really has a chance to surprise people especially in the very marginal spots in central jersey and the city/li . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's so early for the coast. And yes even the sound is a factor. Especially if we remain in marginal rates. Hoping miller A juice brings the wall of precip we need. On another note my flight attendant mother has a flight into JFK at 530 pm Wednesday. At this point she isn't worried as she knows my excitement level all to well. Would suck for her to miss thanksgiving so i am not so sure I want that 12" plus death possibility after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think it's a real nail biter for our areas-if it's snowing away by 10-11am and temps are crashing, it might be a significant event even for the coast. The more northerly winds shown on the modeling will help with the temps. But we can see on soundings how the Sound might still hurt. Long Beach has its moments in the sun...that December 2000 storm was a good deal better near you...per the Oceanside co-op record (15 inches, IIRC)....and that second storm in December 2002...near the end of the month...was lousy out here with only around 4 inches or so as the darn air aloft just would not cool...until it was too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Long Beach has its moments in the sun...that December 2000 storm was a good deal better near you...per the Oceanside co-op record (15 inches, IIRC)....and that second storm in December 2002...near the end of the month...was lousy out here with only around 4 inches or so as the darn air aloft just would not cool...until it was too late.Believe it or not the Nov 7, 2012 event was good here too, we were largely still evacuated post Sandy but from what people were saying, there was pretty much just as much snow on the beach as inland. And we have occasions where we can make it work- a strong northerly fetch might do it. It'll really be about now casting for much of the city and easy. I'll feel a lot better if a yellow wall comes at us on Wed morning rather than spotty/scattered crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's so early for the coast. And yes even the sound is a factor. Especially if we remain in marginal rates. Hoping miller A juice brings the wall of precip we need. On another note my flight attendant mother has a flight into JFK at 530 pm Wednesday. At this point she isn't worried as she knows my excitement level all to well. Would suck for her to miss thanksgiving so i am not so sure I want that 12" plus death possibility after all A due north or just NNE wind would be optimal as that flow is over minimal water from the Sound. That plus heavy precip could do the trick. But it will be a tightrope for sure. And further east into Suffolk will be tough regardless-the NAM soundings keep it toaster the further east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 A due north or just NNE wind would be optimal as that flow is over minimal water from the Sound. That plus heavy precip could do the trick. But it will be a tightrope for sure. I wonder if there's a chance for any sound effect enhancement snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DT announcing his map for NYC changing interested to see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I wonder if there's a chance for any sound effect enhancement snow. I remember making a satirical post during the October 2011 storm along the lines of "With a delta of 20 C, where's my Sound Effect?" You might actually get some here...or Sound Effect rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I remember making a satirical post during the October 2011 storm along the lines of "With a delta of 20 C, where's my Sound Effect?" You might actually get some here...or Sound Effect rain. Where are you out of? Are you a cool girl or a rich girl? (Billy Joel said it best) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I wonder if there's a chance for any sound effect enhancement snow.No. If there was 10 degree air advecting over it I might say it was possible, but alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DT announcing his map for NYC changing interested to see thisBoston probably has to go up also, we all live and die on the wind direction this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where are you out of? Are you a cool girl or a rich girl? (Billy Joel said it best) All such inquiries must be submitted via fax... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can't really tell but the UKMET looks a tad bit weaker/drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 A due north or just NNE wind would be optimal as that flow is over minimal water from the Sound. That plus heavy precip could do the trick. But it will be a tightrope for sure. And further east into Suffolk will be tough regardless-the NAM soundings keep it toaster the further east you go.We had 8" here in wantagh and I would say within an inch in lb having gone down there allot after Sandy. There was a good amount more places like garden city were my budy had way more tree damage from the snow then sandy something like a foot there.Obviously it can and did happen. And if this is a sign of things to come we are in for a fantastic fun winter. Taking my 3" prediction here to the bank but leaving 0-12" open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Upton changed its hwo at 8pm roughly, now includes all of Suffolk.... Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 737 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104-106>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-252300- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN NASSAU- 737 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE REGION THIS STORM WILL TRACK. A COMBINATION OF SNOW...RAIN...AND WIND ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW AND RAIN AMOUNTS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL STORM RELATED HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The models continue to be terrible on the boundary layer though, both GFS and nam mos 00z runs are 41/30 or 40/32 at LGA at 12z, that's pretty horrific even if you have heavy precip rates, you'd rather see 37/25 or something like that, this is going to be a nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where are you out of? Are you a cool girl or a rich girl? (Billy Joel said it best)I'm going to go with neither. Once east of port Jeff there isn't much of a south shore north shore thing it's really a Nassau construct. Port Jeff station over to stony Brook can be a great snow spot with good topography and potential for sound enhancement. I don't expect them to disappoint here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The models continue to be terrible on the boundary layer though, both GFS and nam mos 00z runs are 41/30 or 40/32 at LGA at 12z, that's pretty horrific even if you have heavy precip rates, you'd rather see 37/25 or something like that, this is going to be a nail biterThere really isn't any good cold coming behind this front, the airmass looks to be pretty stale. I think we know by noon if this can be a real snow event near the coast or if it's a big disappointment. The NAM Mos seems to be encouraging out to at least Nassau to get the temp down to 33-34 when the heavy precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm going to go with neither. Once east of port Jeff there isn't much of a south shore north shore thing it's really a Nassau construct. Port Jeff station over to stony Brook can be a great snow spot with good topography and potential for sound enhancement. I don't expect them to disappoint here. I recently relocated...I now reside somewhere over the rainbow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There really isn't any good cold coming behind this front, the airmass looks to be pretty stale. I think we know by noon if this can be a real snow event near the coast or if it's a big disappointment. The NAM Mos seems to be encouraging out to at least Nassau to get the temp down to 33-34 when the heavy precip arrives. This is very much like that January 08 event or even March 1999, very bad air mass, one event had the dynamics to get it over to snow and the other did not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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