SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The RGEM has about 7 inches of snow in NYC and 3-4 as far out as WRN-CNTRL LI...I am using about a 8-10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The thing that could ultimately kill it for the coastal plain & city would be the 1020 mb anticyclone parked over New Brunswick (Canada, not New Jersey). Just a terrible place for it and w/o a legitimate cold air source (in November, no less)...could be a problem. TWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The RGEM has about 7 inches of snow in NYC and 3-4 as far out as WRN-CNTRL LI...I am using about a 8-10:1 ratio IF and that's a big IF the models start showing heavier precip rates and VV's along the coast we may actually get low-criteria warning level event even where I am in SW Suffolk. literally not that far off snowgoose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is just a tick East of the NAM at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just East of OBX hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this is going to be a really good run for the coast on the gfs…hr 39 2m temps in the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 IF and that's a big IF the models start showing heavier precip rates and VV's along the coast we may actually get low-criteria warning level event even where I am in SW Suffolk. literally not that far off snowgooseI'll be in ronkonkoma Wednesday through Sunday. Guess I chose a good time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this is going to be a really good run for the coast on the gfs…hr 39 2m temps in the 30's also IIRC with Miller A's models usually increase QPF as the event gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 yes agreed, I still think im predominantly rain here I am in the SW Suffolk convective hole. if the GFS/EURO show better "dynamic cooling" with better VV's I may get excited but for now im still not that excited to be honest You know its all about rates. And we are sure as hell way off from determining where banding will develope. Right now we can still be anyhere from 0-12. I dont think anything has changed from the general 3" South Shore call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Better than 18z but no NAM or RGEM, sharp cut off west of the DE river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 0.75"+ contour barely makes it to the city. Drying on the GFS continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Liking the early looks of the meso-models. They have the potential to capture some of the more complicated processes such as dynamic cooling. It's going to be interesting to see how the 4km NAM, 4km CONUS-WRF, RGEM, and eventually the HRRR handle these details as we near Wednesday. Today's trends are quite encouraging for the immediate NYC metro for a solution starting out as light rain, and progressively becoming moderate to heavy snow in the mid-afternoon until the early mornings hours of Thursday. Ratios will more than likely start off rather abysmal (maybe 6-8:1), but should recover to 10:1 once the sun sets and better dynamics begin to take hold. All in all I think this is going to be a rather memorable event for the majority of the sub-forum, however local climo will still play a moderate role as it is still November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 sv snow maps 4-6 from ttn-north…. hudson valley 6-8 long island and snj 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this is going to be a really good run for the coast on the gfs…hr 39 2m temps in the 30'sThe GFS can be too high with boundary layer temps since it doesn't have the high resolution of the Euro or NAM, particularly in these borderline situations. It usually catches on closer to the event. The GGEM and RGEM can be too warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The GFS is not renowned for its ability to accurately forecast precipitation amounts in mesoscale situations...its quite bad at it actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 0.75"+ contour barely makes it to the city. Drying on the GFS continues. Hmmm very strange.. What's the GFS see that no other model sees right now.. Tracks are general in concurrence but as per qpf the GFS is was off on the northern shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm not worried about the GFS at this point. It's the driest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Do you have the rgem totals like the nam map you posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm not worried about the GFS at this point. It's the driest model. Very dry in comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hmmm very strange.. What's the GFS see that no other model sees right now.. Tracks are general in concurrence but as per qpf the GFS is was off on the northern shield It looks terribly confused with how to handle things, pretty much par for the course. It was more amped up down south and still went well East and weak sauce. It was slightly more intense on the NW side but moved out faster limiting totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 0.75"+ contour barely makes it to the city. Drying on the GFS continues.I would go with the Euro and other models on precip amounts. They're all plenty wet all through NJ into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Basically the same placement of the LOW this run. But a bit drier. EURO will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Basically the same placement of the LOW this run. But a bit drier. EURO will be interesting. Not just a bit, much drier especially compared to nam and rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The first three hours or so on the 00z RGEM are rain for mostly everyone. That limited totals somewhat. It's about 12 hours of heavy wet paste verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Honestly, AT this point, it seems fairly good most of the subforum will see accumulating snow, we don't know how much yet, with the warm temps off the coast, once that LOW begins to develop, it could feed off the waters, I've seen that happen time and time again resulting in a more west track, like the EURO/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Why does the map say cmc isnt that the regular canadian model and not rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The GFS is not renowned for its ability to accurately forecast precipitation amounts in mesoscale situations...its quite bad at it actually. Different setup this time, but I was looking back at the forums for the mid February storm (specifically in the Hudson Valley) and at a time when the Euro and most of the mesos were suggesting 1-2 feet of snow, the GFS had as little as 3-6". Most of us remember how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 However, as we see time & again with these developing East Coast storms...the heaviest precipitation field is invariably modeled to fall from maybe Baltimore to Trenton 4 or so days out...and gradually, run by run, the models seem to ever so slowly catch on to the idea that the area of greatest vertical motion...where the bulk of the snow is created...needs to be shunted northeastward...as we saw in Dec 2000 & March 2001. I think central Mass and NE CT may be the big winners here...but the interior of the local CWA will almost certainly see a significant (and for November, extremely substantial) snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Why does the map say cmc isnt that the regular canadian model and not rgem? CMC-RDPS RGEM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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