SnowGoose69 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Actually.....I have a question for you. I have noticed that sometimes, as you said, they appear more impressive than they are. I have also seen quite the contrary, though, where bands forming as a system spins up NEXT out of the area barely appear as much of anything on radar, however the precip lingers and is heavy at times. Why would this be ?? Closed lows, vertically stacked systems, and a strongly -NAO can always result in longer duration of the bands hanging around...Boxing Day seemed to hang on forever...in that case we got pummeled by the entire storm not just the back end with the deformation band. If you're in a position where you were too far east initially and the deformation band is your only chance I think how much damage the mid-level dryslot does is a big factor. If it punches tremendous dry air into the 650-700mb layer you're gonna hurt and the deformation band although it may appear good on radar you're snow growth is gonna blow.....I had this occur in OKC once, we thought we'd get slammed and the mid-level dry slot pulled so much dry air in it killed the snow band behind the 850 and 700 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 These deformation bands are tricky, sometimes they appear impressive on radar but snow growth is bad or there is a dry nose and the ground obs don't reflect the radar reflectivities so far that band is producing nothing for me but some light snow(big flake size but light) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 These deformation bands are tricky, sometimes they appear impressive on radar but snow growth is bad or there is a dry nose and the ground obs don't reflect the radar reflectivities Can confirm, under 25 DbZ right now in westfield with drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Closed lows, vertically stacked systems, and a strongly -NAO can always result in longer duration of the bands hanging around...Boxing Day seemed to hang on forever...in that case we got pummeled by the entire storm not just the back end with the deformation band. If you're in a position where you were too far east initially and the deformation band is your only chance I think how much damage the mid-level dryslot does is a big factor. If it punches tremendous dry air into the 650-700mb layer you're gonna hurt and the deformation band although it may appear good on radar you're snow growth is gonna blow.....I had this occur in OKC once, we thought we'd get slammed and the mid-level dry slot pulled so much dry air in it killed the snow band behind the 850 and 700 lows. A-ha so essentially the "damage" to the mid-levels due to dry air will affect the actual precipitation rates but will not be reflected on radar, appearing it to be more amped (rule of the board right ? When "amped" can be used, it must be) than it really is. Thank you for the awesome response.:..:very informative. It actually got me looking into radars, how they really work, their limitations, etc.....http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_radar Really interesting stuff.....I love to keep learning more about all things weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Snow and sleet now . A fresh coating on my 1 inch of slop would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Mt Holly won...Upton eating crow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Mt Holly won... Upton eating crow: That 10-14 in Danbury was nowhere even close. Ugly bust overall on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I'm in danbury...total slop fest. Light snow now and maybe 3-4 inches total since this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 That 10-14 in Danbury was nowhere even close. Ugly bust overall on this one. Only place they did good was up here.. Everywhere else was pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Ah well...only November still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I'm in danbury...total slop fest. Light snow now and maybe 3-4 inches total since this am. The hysteria and hype around here was epic. All for a slushy coating of sleet that is now gone after a change back to rain. A complete joke and wasted snow day for many districts, luckily ours saw the light and didnt blow a snow day for a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 That 10-14 in Danbury was nowhere even close. Ugly bust overall on this one. OKX windshield wipered this one pretty horribly. That egregiously high map came after an underwhelming front end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Ah well...only November still this was a good November event...A similar storm a month from now could end up with major snow and ice accumulations...The pattern of coastal storms continue like the fall 2002... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 A good rule of thumb when forecasting for the 5 boroughs of NYC: Whenever there is a borderline antecedent air mass in place (and to call the one today even "borderline" is to flatter it)...9 times out of 10...whatever the media outlets are predicting with regard to accumulation...go with the lowest amount promulgated. Too many things can go wrong in marginal snow situations in NYC...and invariably do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 A good rule of thumb when forecasting for the 5 boroughs of NYC: Whenever there is a borderline antecedent air mass in place (and to call the one today even "borderline" is to flatter it)...9 times out of 10...whatever the media outlets are predicting with regard to accumulation...go with the lowest amount promulgated. Too many things can go wrong in marginal snow situations in NYC...and invariably do. Yeh Isotherm argued this exact point for 2 days. I think we ( I did ) take the model algo s and forget what 40 N on the coastal plain that's devoid of blocking with a terrible air mass should get you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 A good rule of thumb when forecasting for the 5 boroughs of NYC: Whenever there is a borderline antecedent air mass in place (and to call the one today even "borderline" is to flatter it)...9 times out of 10...whatever the media outlets are predicting with regard to accumulation...go with the lowest amount promulgated. Too many things can go wrong in marginal snow situations in NYC...and invariably do. Well said, especially liked the use of the word promulgated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Well said, especially liked the use of the word promulgated. Thank you danstorm; thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Yeh Isotherm argued this exact point for 2 days. I think we ( I did ) take the model algo s and forget what 40 N on the coastal plain that's devoid of blocking with a terrible air mass should get you. Yeah, ultimately history / poor pattern of +NAO/AO won out here. There's a reason why the coast virtually never sees significant snow in November in a regime like the present one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Yeah, ultimately history / poor pattern of +NAO/AO won out here. There's a reason why the coast virtually never sees significant snow in November in a regime like the present one. Definite kudos to you. I began to fall for the football Lucy planted under her foot but 9 times out of 10 (maybe 19 out of 20) these marginal, ehh setups don't work out for us down here. And the horrible 700mb low track nailed the coffin shut regardless. Hopefully later in December can get us some legit winter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 The 06Z GFS has a light accumulating snow in eastern New England on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Typical late 90s, early 00s coastal system. We've been spoiled. Flurry party recently thoigh! Wooohoooo. Not. NW burbs can finally stop complaining about screwjobs. I'm actually surprised that the BL wasn't remotely an issue, that 700 and I assume 925 tongue was killer. Was at 33 degrees for a LONG period of time regardless of precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Yeah, ultimately history / poor pattern of +NAO/AO won out here. There's a reason why the coast virtually never sees significant snow in November in a regime like the present one. Was surpised the models were so bad too-the RGEM still had big snows till the bitter end. The Euro too. GFS and NAM saw the writing on the wall, but not until about 12-18 hrs before go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 10000% agree.... euro snow maps from EUROWX.COM was spot on for I-95... WXBELL snow maps were AWFUL The hysteria and hype around here was epic. All for a slushy coating of sleet that is now gone after a change back to rain. A complete joke and wasted snow day for many districts, luckily ours saw the light and didnt blow a snow day for a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 learned that rule back in 1989 A good rule of thumb when forecasting for the 5 boroughs of NYC: Whenever there is a borderline antecedent air mass in place (and to call the one today even "borderline" is to flatter it)...9 times out of 10...whatever the media outlets are predicting with regard to accumulation...go with the lowest amount promulgated. Too many things can go wrong in marginal snow situations in NYC...and invariably do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 5 days ago In took alot of **** from my forecast/ argument that NYC would NOT see any accumulating snow a lot of crap Iso thought 0 at the park - I thought EAST of JFK 0 but 3 at the park. Will not make that mistake again with that set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 5 days ago In took alot of **** from my forecast/ argument that NYC would NOT see any accumulating snow a lot of crap A lot of people on here and other sites said NYC would not see accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 A lot of people on here and other sites said NYC would not see accumulating snow. Dude Upton had 4 to 8 out the day before - DT arch nemesis had 3 to 6 that morning . A private group out of Colorado had 6 . Most / IF NOT ALL METS had 1 to 3 at the park . 1 non met here had 0 - ISO Everyone thought the 700s would stop short of the park enough for there to be accumulating snow at even 5 to 1 . No one saw ZERO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Dude Upton had 4 to 8 out the day before - DT arch nemesis had 3 to 6 that morning . A private group out of Colorado had 6 . Most / IF NOT ALL METS had 1 to 3 at the park . 1 non met here had 0 - ISO Everyone thought the 700s would stop short of the park enough for there to be accumulating snow at even 5 to 1 . No one saw ZERO . I told snow88 about 2 days before, that it might snow, but it would basically be white rain. The EURO had painted that warming in the atmosphere for days. And some people on accuweather and usa wx also stated the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 LGA recorded .4" EWR 1.2" I finished with .5" in Astoria. Got lucky with 1 band in the AM that coated all cold surfaces, grass and even a few sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 LGA recorded .4" EWR 1.2" Think E of the Hudson this wasn`t far far off from what reasonable people expected from 24 hours out . I heard the NE thread came apart last nite . There were some big time misses up there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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