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Thanksgiving Eve SECS/MECS Discussion II


gkrangers

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Forky models did a pretty damn good job honing in on the 725mb warm punch. We'll see if any "wrap around" moisture moves across the area in the form of snow this evening

Man it sucks that you were right about this one. I still think we see some snow this evening but no accum.

I wouldn't really call it backlash because we are already in north winds

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Overall this did indeed end up as an interior snowfall event and a significant one that'll be remembered somewhat due to it's timing just before Thanksgiving (but probably not too vividly).  Credit to Isotherm (and I think Bluewave as well who was pushing some of the model trends the last few days) who got very bearish on the idea of a significant snowfall on the coast and even nearby locales.

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There's probably going to be some snow later, but I wouldn't count on more than 1"...

Yeah I agree. The area of precip over E PA is actually developing nicely, hitting Allentown pretty good right now, but as it spreads N and E into our area it should weaken some.....should arrive around 7 and taper off after 9.....right around an inch looks to be all with it.....all in all, picked up about a sloppy 1.5" here. Can't say it's disappointing nor can I say it's anything amazing. Pretty typical November sloppy snow here. Further NW, it's more impressive of course
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I think NW and some in western NJ/E PA areas may see another 1-2" from this band passing through....I doubt another 3", but you never know. For most of us further east, as it weakens on approach, I think up to another inch is possible. 22z RAP gives .1 to .2 more, .3 far NW NJ, S NY. I doubt it'll be 10:1 ratios anywhere, so I doubt any more than that

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I think NW and some in western NJ/E PA areas may see another 1-2" from this band passing through....I doubt another 3", but you never know. For most of us further east, as it weakens on approach, I think up to another inch is possible. 22z RAP gives .1 to .2 more, .3 far NW NJ. I doubt it'll be 10:1 ratios anywhere, so I doubt any more than that

Someone just south of Allentown is getting crushed right now!

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These deformation bands are tricky, sometimes they appear impressive on radar but snow growth is bad or there is a dry nose and the ground obs don't reflect the radar reflectivities

Actually.....I have a question for you. I have noticed that sometimes, as you said, they appear more impressive than they are. I have also seen quite the contrary, though, where bands forming as a system spins up NEXT out of the area barely appear as much of anything on radar, however the precip lingers and is heavy at times. Why would this be ??
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