Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wettest models run yet...NYC close to 1.5" with 1.25" for all of nj...Euro was 1" for nj, and 1.2" nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There was an old rule that when the Euro and NAM were in agreement inside of 48 hours that it was a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wettest models run yet...NYC close to 1.5" with 1.25" for all of nj...Euro was 1" for nj, and 1.2" nyc It's less than 0.25" wetter than the 12z EURO in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJeff1019 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There was an old rule that when the Euro and NAM were in agreement inside of 48 hours that it was a lock. The old EE (Euro and Eta) Rule.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the posts referring to the nam etc….im not referring to the amount of preciep more with the dynamics and heavy wet snow…. northern nj and nyc gets .75 in six hours all snow thats impressive for December let alone November. The soundings produce a nice trowel for the metro area…The VV are great….its more then just preciep amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the posts referring to the nam etc….im not referring to the amount of preciep more with the dynamics and heavy wet snow…. northern nj and nyc gets .75 in six hours all snow thats impressive for December let alone November. The soundings produce a nice trowel for the metro area…The VV are great….its more then just preciep amounts Yup. Just checked out the EWR sounding. The 700mb VVs are very impressive over a chunk of NJ for a good 6 hour period as you mentioned, but the NAM suggests it snows for a couple hours before and even after that "dumping" period of about 6-7 hours. NAM verbatim is suggestive of about 12 hours, but it tends to overdo the "timing" so cut it down a couple hours you still get maybe a real solid 9 hour snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There is almost no difference between KNYC and KSWF at either 850 - DP - BL . at hour 39 - 42 - 45 . This is a Warning event for NYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There is almost no difference between KNYC and KSWF at either 850 - DP - BL . at hour 39 - 42 - 45 . This is a Warning event for NYC . You mean using the NAM profiles its a warning event for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM Soundings- Unbelievably the warm layer looks to be from 650-700 mb, don't think I've ever seen that before. But it doesn't seem to be enough to stop it from snowing from ISP west. The surface temps though are dicey for much of Suffolk and even maybe my area (FRG and ISP are in the mid 30s during the heaviest precip, MTP never gets below 38, JFK quickly dips to about 33). The Sound may still be adding to the warm boundary layer out on the Island. Temps everywhere from the city east start around 40 and then crash as the precip gets going. This is what I talked about WRT the precip coming in like a wall and quickly crashing temps. This should be good for at least several inches of wet snow for just about everyone except the far East End. Obviously places that are near or below freezing the longest get the most, and this is the NAM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREF Plumes for EWR, LGA, JFK all have around 9-9.5 inches as the mean snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You mean using the NAM profiles its a warning event for NYC Check the euro 850s and BL for both. 1 degree max diff at the surface. 850s at Newburg are minus 4. Knyc minus 3. Both 1.2 inches. If 80 perc Falls as snow at knyc at 7 to 1. That's a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Snowfall through 60 hours on the latest NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Check the euro 850s and BL for both. 1 degree max diff at the surface. 850s at Newburg are minus 4. Knyc minus 3. Both 1.2 inches. If 80 perc Falls as snow at knyc at 7 to 1. That's a warning It's going to be a very tricky situation down here as heavy precip can make the lower levels isothermal and quickly pile up snow at 32-33 degrees. But if it's spottier or lighter snow/precip it will have a hard time getting below 35-36 and the snow won't accumulate. But if it's anything like the new NAM or even the Euro today it will be a huge mess out here and there could be power/tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Someone please chime in if they are knowledgeable about the NAM's recent history, but was there some sort of an upgrade or "fix" in terms of its algo or data assimilation. It seems it's QPF estimates have been much closer lately going back even to last winter to a lot of the other modeling (especially the RGEM which is a short range model). I recall a few years back some really crazy QPF figures it would spit out on some runs (although it wasn't so far off on QPF for LI/NE in the Feb'13 blizzard, just had the placement off moreso. Not saying I buy it verbatim, but at least it's not so far off the map from the other modeling (pretty close actually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM Soundings- Unbelievably the warm layer looks to be from 650-700 mb, don't think I've ever seen that before. But it doesn't seem to be enough to stop it from snowing from ISP west. The surface temps though are dicey for much of Suffolk and even maybe my area (FRG and ISP are in the mid 30s during the heaviest precip, MTP never gets below 38, JFK quickly dips to about 33). The Sound may still be adding to the warm boundary layer out on the Island. Temps everywhere from the city east start around 40 and then crash as the precip gets going. This is what I talked about WRT the precip coming in like a wall and quickly crashing temps. This should be good for at least several inches of wet snow for just about everyone except the far East End. Obviously places that are near or below freezing the longest get the most, and this is the NAM verbatim. Coastal Jersey probably with higher rain probabilities than the Island...even a true NE wind / 45 degrees is going to have a considerable fetch across low 50's open ocean...much of the Island will mainly have to overcome the Sound...which won't be that easy either..but their odds are a little better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ultimately I think the final totals will be very climatologically driven...traditional snow holes will do poorly & the normally colder and snowier spots will clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM getting into its reliable range as well! who knows maybe i'll see my first inch or two of snow this year yet!. RGEM is almost a near classic BM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's going to be a very tricky situation down here as heavy precip can make the lower levels isothermal and quickly pile up snow at 32-33 degrees. But if it's spottier or lighter snow/precip it will have a hard time getting below 35-36 and the snow won't accumulate. But if it's anything like the new NAM or even the Euro today it will be a huge mess out here and there could be power/tree damage. The same 1.2 is falling at the park as in Newburg over the same time on the euro. The BL and 850s are a degree apart max. So 12 vs 3 for me rings an alarm bell as too many think there's a bigger divergence over that 65 mile span than there really is. If the soundings are right and end up that way it's more in and around the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM is a crush job. Damn, very close to the NAM. I like were things are headed with the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00003.png You can see a possible banding feature on that last frame going right up the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well, so far tonight 2 for 2 with the QPF increased. GFS EURO UKET lets see whats going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM getting into its reliable range as well! who knows maybe i'll see my first inch or two of snow this year yet!. RGEM is almost a near classic BM track Tomorrow night's 0z run is usually its best range...the model does very well with these rain / snow lines...though, I've noticed it has the slightest of warm biases with these East Coast Lows when precip is falling...maybe 0.5 F to 1.0 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Tomorrow night's 0z run is usually its best range...the model does very well with these rain / snow lines...though, I've noticed it has the slightest of warm biases with these East Coast Lows when precip is falling...maybe 0.5 F to 1.0 F. yes agreed, I still think im predominantly rain here I am in the SW Suffolk convective hole. if the GFS/EURO show better "dynamic cooling" with better VV's I may get excited but for now im still not that excited to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00003.png Wow that banding feature is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Tomorrow night's 0z run is usually its best range...the model does very well with these rain / snow lines...though, I've noticed it has the slightest of warm biases with these East Coast Lows when precip is falling...maybe 0.5 F to 1.0 F. Yeah if you see it holding the R/S line right on the coast which its doing here you often need to shift it SE a bit, I agree with its positioning of the R/S line til 18Z or so but after that its likely too warm...it shows that big area of orange...in an event like this that orange tends to verify as rain til the the wind go NNE, then the orange tends to be snowy...you don't really get an area of PL or RAPL in these storms unless its brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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