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Thanksgiving Eve SECS/MECS Discussion II


gkrangers

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Lol it is moving north but it will eventually stop and push back east. It should get well into NE NJ though, at least through the lower elevated suburbs within 15-20 miles of NYC. Always funny how people see things or hear reports that suddenly the rain snow line will not move past, or the low is closer/further away than modeled, or the snow seems to be back building into the area, etc etc lol. Will the models pinpoint to the exact town where the rain/snow line will set up? Of course not. However, they have done a really good job with this storm including the Euro with it's initial idea of a closer to the coast solution while other models said further away.....and even the NAM with it's thermal profiles. The RAP/HRRR, though good tools, have wobbled a little too much with this one. Overall nice forecasts by NWS, especially with their initial thoughts of the potential for significantly more snow in western essex and union as opposed to eastern portions of the counties , as we could be looking at a 3-6 west/1-3 east type of situation

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NWS UPTON:

 

  • A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION THROUGH 330 PM.
  • SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH(ES) PER HOUR... ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES... AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION TRAVELING IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS.
  • A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED AND REPORTED AS WELL... AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
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Definitely nice forecasting by some on here including Earthlight, who was forecasting significantly more snow 20 miles west of NYC....AWESOME call..not only due to the fact that they WILL in fact get more snow, but also considering I am 13-14 miles west of NYC and will NOT get into those good accumulations..pinpoint accuracy, so well done

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I lived in Caldwell for many years in west orange at the top of eagle rock right next door we always do tremendously well in these marginal situations elevation certainly helps. Can count numerous times driving home from the path in Kearny with rain then getting heavy accumulating snow after you got to the hill on280

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Definitely nice forecasting by some on here including Earthlight, who was forecasting significantly more snow 20 miles west of NYC....AWESOME call..not only due to the fact that they WILL in fact get more snow, but also considering I am 13-14 miles west of NYC and will NOT get into those good accumulations..pinpoint accuracy, so well done

I agree. Earthlight excellent job man.

 

You said it... if you are over 20 miles from NYC you are safe... and according to new Mt Holly and Upton Maps.. they are speaking what you said.

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Upton has increased snowfall amounts here, now on the border of 6-8". Looks accurate based on banding signature and temperatures staying a little colder than expected. ECM thermal profiles are going to win out over the GFS.

 

-SN

32.5/31

Wind: ENE

Euro has snow for NYC later on as the storm pulls out. Maybe that's when we will get some accumulations in the city.

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Well I went from nothing to less than 1". That's like a 10 billion percent increase!!

 

Anything above +0.3" in November for NYC is a good month. I hope that they don't wait too long again to measure

so we don't lose some to melt like we saw in the past.

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