Weathergun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wet-bulb temps are higher near the coast. We need some precip drag to get surface temps colder MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA...SERN NY...FAR NWRN NJ...NWRN CT...WRN AND CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND SRN NH CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261650Z - 262115Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR/ ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN A 70-90 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM ERN PA THROUGH SERN NY TO WRN/CENTRAL MA AND DEVELOP INTO SRN VT/NH THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RAPID COOLING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FROM NERN PA TO WRN MA...LIKELY DUE TO WET-BULB EFFECTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SW-NE. SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AT OR BELOW 32 ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL MA AND SRN NH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG UVVS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHILE FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL RATES MAY RESULT FROM AGGREGATE PROCESSES WITHIN AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT LOW LEVELS. ..PETERS.. 11/26/2014 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 40687528 39777645 39707692 39847738 40287740 41197692 42197586 42547514 43397299 43887097 42927151 42437190 42087280 41477394 40687528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 its been a wide variety of things falling here on the very end of long island aka suffolk county aka northern most part of long island basically, but temperature been falling constantly today, down to 37.5°F raining, sleeting and snowing basically all at once, winds are starting to pick up with wind advisory going into effect in 2 hours.. looking ahead, for a moment, the dreaded, accuweather winter forecast they put out recently saying slow and milder December i find hard to believe but we shall see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 16z HRRR is colder again. For the immediate suburbs of NYC, this is a big deal You mentioned the mid levels will cool after the 700 mb low swings through is that when the accumulations will occur and having the HRRR colder would mean more accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Warmest hour at 700 on the 16z RAP for KNYC -1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 also forgot to mention, currently temperature dropping at a rate of -1.26°F at moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Mid-level warm push on the 16z HRRR seems to be between 19z to 21z. 15z HRRR had it between 17z to 19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wet-bulb temps are higher near the coast. We need some precip drag to get surface temps colder MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA...SERN NY...FAR NWRN NJ...NWRN CT...WRN AND CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND SRN NH CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261650Z - 262115Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR/ ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN A 70-90 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM ERN PA THROUGH SERN NY TO WRN/CENTRAL MA AND DEVELOP INTO SRN VT/NH THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RAPID COOLING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FROM NERN PA TO WRN MA...LIKELY DUE TO WET-BULB EFFECTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SW-NE. SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AT OR BELOW 32 ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL MA AND SRN NH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG UVVS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHILE FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL RATES MAY RESULT FROM AGGREGATE PROCESSES WITHIN AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT LOW LEVELS. ..PETERS.. 11/26/2014 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 40687528 39777645 39707692 39847738 40287740 41197692 42197586 42547514 43397299 43887097 42927151 42437190 42087280 41477394 40687528 What's your temp bro? I'm down to 33.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Warmest hour at 700 on the 16z RAP for KNYC -1 . Yet I'm sleeting with a few flakes at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yet I'm sleeting with a few flakes at 33. These are the days 10 miles makes a difference for a time in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 These are the days 10 miles makes a difference for a time in NYCIt's about 60% snow in Chelsea at the moment. The City has been back and forth, a quicker change to snow later will probably give them some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 What's your temp bro? I'm down to 33.5 I don't have a thermo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Warmest hour at 700 on the 16z RAP for KNYC -1 . Rap continues the cold trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Rain and sleet mix with a lot of sleet currently in Middletown, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Mod/ heavy sleet in Kew gardens for the last 15 minutes with ground continuing to whiten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Rap continues the cold trend EWR will be the war zone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Moderate snow in Cranford now. I'd say a solid inch in cold surfaces with slush on roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 Everything but the kitchen sink now in upper Manhattan, tho it looks a bit whiter than it did earlier from my window. Probably sleet heavy, I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I am feeling sorry for everyone on the forums. I know we are all hoping for lots of snow but it aint happenin with this one for most of us. Let's keep climo and all of this in poerspective. Any accumulations today for most will be a bonus. The reality is that we are in a pattern right now that if it holds, we will all probably be sick of snow by the end of winter. Good luck folks, Im signing off so I can get things done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Moderate snow in Cranford now. I'd say a solid inch in cold surfaces with slush on roadways. Same here, heaviest of the day so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 4.4" OTG with a liquid equivalent of .51". It's very wet snow, compacting about as rapidly as it's falling right now, so ratios have actually been surprisingly good up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Same here, heaviest of the day so far and right on queue snow mixes in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 700mb Frontogenesis Maxed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 snow/rain/sleet line is moving inland in NE NJ - just flipped to sleet here in Northern Middlesex County NJ 32F http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I am feeling sorry for everyone on the forums. I know we are all hoping for lots of snow but it aint happenin with this one for most of us. Let's keep climo and all of this in poerspective. Any accumulations today for most will be a bonus. The reality is that we are in a pattern right now that if it holds, we will all probably be sick of snow by the end of winter. Good luck folks, Im signing off so I can get things done. The coast isn't going to see a lot of snow because of the climo. If the storm took a little better track and more cold air to work with, this would have been a snowstorm for the coast. The pattern will get milder coming up but that should be brief . Joe cioffi thinks Long Island may flip over to snow for a short time. I'm not buying it yet but well see. and Steve D. They think NYC will flip over as it pivots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 snow/rain/sleet line is moving inland in NE NJ - just flipped to sleet here in Northern Middlesex County NJ 32F http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Yeah, that's the beginning of the 700 mb warming. It looks like it may eventually stall out right on or just a few miles west of Hudson later before moving back east this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Mod/ heavy sleet in Kew gardens for the last 15 minutes with ground continuing to whiten Yep same in forest hills. All cars are covered and ground starting to slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 THUNDER SNOW! IN CADWELL nj BAD THUNDER!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Here comes a heavy punch on radar will be highly interesting to see what form precp takes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 THUNDER SNOW! IN CADWELL nj BAD THUNDER!!!!! Thats what happened down south around Philly's suburbs. Storm continues to surprise. ENJOY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 snow/rain/sleet line is moving inland in NE NJ - just flipped to sleet here in Northern Middlesex County NJ 32F http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Doesn't seem to be moving north, more like waving around. Likely to push south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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