GooGoo Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR showing lots of sleet even up into HV! We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Taking a look at that ECMWF map...everything is displaced too far northwest. There will be heavy accumulations 25 miles northwest of NYC...maybe even closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This is why with a Miller A storm the EURO is not to be taken lightly. It makes its reputation on these type of storms. Score another one for King EURO! The pattern was really obvious with the strong WAR and no blocking. The interesting thing about the too cold GFS solutions were that if you used the 500 mb teleconnections maps you got the warmer idea correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Taking a look at that ECMWF map...everything is displaced too far northwest. There will be heavy accumulations 25 miles northwest of NYC...maybe even closer. You are missing the point. It kept the heaviest accumulations NW. We probably should never discuss exact accumulations until at least 24 hrs before an event since days two and three before can have some model solutions that will only cause disappointment later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 lol...no thanks im pretty sure that model was showing warning level snow for me(northern nassau)like 24 hours ago...hate to break the news to you that models a joke like all the others are Not correct. It is not a joke and is a benchmark model for Miller A's including this one. Its been consistently warm and tucked in for a past several days. Its temp profiles may be off a bit as many models would be but overall the ECMWF is better than other competition with pure breed Miller A's, it occasionally stumbles but not much. It even had sandy making landfall in NJ wayyy before any other global model caught on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I always thought model verification scores were not tabulated until the storm was over...lol. Damn it pamela! You know what i mean! JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 You are missing the point. It kept the heaviest accumulations NW. We probably should never discuss exact accumulations until at least 24 hrs before an event since days two and three before can have some model solutions that will only cause disappointment later. I don't understand...oh wait...you mean the point was that the ECMWF was correct in forecasting the heaviest snow axis well NW of the coastal plain..yeah I think I see...my point was just that it may well be placed too far NW...a comment on the specificity of the heaviest accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The pattern was really obvious with the strong WAR and no blocking. The interesting thing about the too cold GFS solutions were that if you used the 500 mb teleconnections maps you got the warmer idea correct. Yes agree strongly the EURO temp profiles were more accurate than that of the GFS which will likely verify too cold. congrats well N&W of NYC for the first substantial snow of the season though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Damn it pamela! You know what i mean! JK Not much of a snowstorm for us out here on Long Island unfortunately...though as the storm exits stage right...maybe a period of snow towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yes agree strongly the EURO temp profiles were more accurate than that of the GFS which will likely verify too cold. congrats well N&W of NYC for the first substantial snow of the season though! Yeah, the 500 mb maps were all that you really needed to look at. That 594 DM ridge to our east wasn't a good signal for the coast. But the -EPO kept interior sections in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Not a huge amount of cold air to draw upon for the coastal plain; 38 F in Scranton & Worcester...both those airports are up near 1000 feet a.s.l....but it should be cold enough for a heavy, wet snow inland and especially above 300 foot contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The south winds at KILM and KHSE speak volumes about the track vs. what we expected 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I always thought model verification scores were not tabulated until the storm was over...lol. What about the EURO after mid-Feb. last winter? Didn't it suffer a manic seizure and predict 3 major events here that did not happen!? NYC had only 2" more after that point, not 30"+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Taking a look at the temperature profile...comes as a bit of a shock that the nearby interior might see their snow totals reduced because the column might be too warm at the 700 mb level...I can't remember many winter storms where > 0 C air at that level (I think that's around 10,000 feet up or so...almost two miles in the sky) was a factor. Lot of vertical motion with this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Sorry if improper thread to post this, but this is currently the most active and I'm about to lose service as I head into the tunnel... What would you guys forecast Rockland county to be receiving and what would be the worst impact timing of my return commute from the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Sorry if improper thread to post this, but this is currently the most active and I'm about to lose service as I head into the tunnel... What would you guys forecast Rockland county to be receiving and what would be the worst impact timing of my return commute from the city? Rockland will be right on the border...southern sections will be a couple inches at most...northern sections up in the hills will be 6+ most likely with much higher impacts. All afternoon is gonna suck through evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Here in Fleetwood; I am 5 min from Bronxville at the weather station sarah Lawrence is at 38, a nowcast situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Here in Fleetwood; I am 5 min from Bronxville at the weather station sarah Lawrence is at 38, a nowcast situationI can comfirm this. I am 36 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 37 at Bronx botanical garden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 37 at Bronx botanical garden and still dropping!..here in norwood it's 36 f..dp of 30..rain/snow line is less then 15 miles away and creeping closer to the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Very interesting observations coming in around the area. Some places reporting a temperature drop of 3 degrees once the snow started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Lets see what this looks like at 10 am through the city . This may be a tad aggressive . It`s 37 up in Laurel Hollow so interested to see if this line can swing through Westchester the N shore of Long Island and into N NYC later on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northshore Blizzard Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Interesting note on the storm: here in Medford, NY we have a mix of rain and sleet. Temps down to 40. I didn't expect to see any frozen precip until after sundown. Not saying we're going to see a change over to snow earlier; just thought it was something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Very interesting observations coming in around the area. Some places reporting a temperature drop of 3 degrees once the snow started. The models had the temperature dropping with the heaviest rain. The big problem is the 700 mb warm surge pushing north by around noontime that the models caught onto Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Interesting note on the storm: here in Medford, NY we have a mix of rain and sleet. Temps down to 40. I didn't expect to see any frozen precip until after sundown. Not saying we're going to see a change over to snow earlier; just thought it was something to keep an eye on. I started as sleet before 6am at 40/31. Was rain at 7am at 38/31 now snow at 35/31 with coating on all non paved surfaces. Suspect initial burst was heavy enough to allow sleet before rain then finally to snow as column is cooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Rockland will be right on the border...southern sections will be a couple inches at most...northern sections up in the hills will be 6+ most likely with much higher impacts. All afternoon is gonna suck through evening.Zip code 10952. Just moved there from Staten (just got married!) And unsure of elevation level there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Zip code 10952. Just moved there from Staten (just got married!) And unsure of elevation level there... Nice, congrats! Youre fairly far west in the county, youll stay all snow longer and flip back to snow quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Snot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 So that's it??? Party over? I go to sleep with a WSW and 6-8" on the way and wake up with a WWA and 1-3???? Boy I am p'od!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow temps plummeted.I now have mostly snow and very little sleet.I wasn't expecting it by 8:57! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 from upton 7am disco: LATEST PRESSURE FALLS AND CONSENSUS OF ZERO MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRING A COASTAL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THISEVENING ON AVERAGE BY ABOUT 75 TO 100 MILES. i'm sorry, but WTF? did this track change happen overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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