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Thanksgiving Eve SECS/MECS Discussion II


gkrangers

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hrrr is going brrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Since these maps are inflated and assume 10 to 1 . And since anyone east of I 95 would do no better than 6 to 1 and From NCNJ east would probably be only 8 to 1 you can see the models are west and warmer not brrrrrrr.

post-7472-0-67276000-1416994938_thumb.pn

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Euro is a coastal hugger. I guess we just have to look out the window and see.

Bring your rain gear to work today , leave your boots at home .

 

 

AREAS ROUGHLY N/W OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT WILL SEE A

MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THIS

AFTERNOON. INTERIOR SW CT COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIX IN AS WELL.

STILL EXPECTING 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA...EXCEPT 4-8

INCHES STILL ACROSS INTERIOR W CT.

AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH COASTAL SW CT...INCLUDING

ALL OF UNION COUNTY AND NORTHERN QUEENS/MANHATTAN/THE BRONX IN

NYC...AND INTERIOR SE CT SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET

CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH

1 TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE REST OF

NYC...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING...MIXING WITH SLEET AND SNOW

THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS AREA...WITH

MOST OF LONG ISLAND RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.

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hrrr is going brrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

Huh? Its quite warm to me at the surface... very few locations are below freezing across NJ/NY/CO/MA. And this is not even looking at the warm nose aloft.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_2d.php

 

hrrr_temp2m_KALB_29.png

 

 

Since these maps are inflated and assume 10 to 1 . And since anyone east of I 95 would do no better than 6 to 1 and From NCNJ east would probably be only 8 to 1 you can see the models are west and warmer not brrrrrrr.

 
I think most locations outside of the higher elevations are going to struggle with 10:1 ratios with most precip falling in 33-34F temps. 
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well the 6z has me in a snow/mix situation up here in the northwest bronx,i'm in a great position to see the rain snow line barely make it across the hudson river.although keep in mind another nudge east and most of the northern sections of the city get the most snow.per 6z gfs im in the 3-6 inch zone with a rapid decrease south and east of here..north and west obviously gets crushed.

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well the 6z has me in a snow/mix situation up here in the northwest bronx,i'm in a great position to see the rain snow line barely make it across the hudson river.although keep in mind another nudge east and most of the northern sections of the city get the most snow.per 6z gfs im in the 3-6 inch zone with a rapid decrease south and east of here..north and west obviously gets crushed.

Im up in Woodlawn - we should have the highest totals in NYC but it's looking like they'll still be on the low side with the warming trend.
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Ughh maybe i may get 0 accumalation in nyc right now per nws its decreasing.

 

It is 11/26. Welcome to climo. Just be happy we had a storm to track in late Nov. Best part is this isn't March, we have a full winter ahead to track bud

 

Not expecting much, if anything frozen down here in Philly either. 

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Since these maps are inflated and assume 10 to 1 . And since anyone east of I 95 would do no better than 6 to 1 and From NCNJ east would probably be only 8 to 1 you can see the models are west and warmer not brrrrrrr.

 

Kudos to the Euro for getting it right first with the warmer idea. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/p.779953812051879/779953812051879/?type=1&theater

 

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This is why with a Miller A storm the EURO is not to be taken lightly. It makes its reputation on these type of storms. Score another one for King EURO!

 

I always thought model verification scores were not tabulated until the storm was over...lol.

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6z RGEM ( Impressive)

 

Places like Litchfield County, northern Fairfield & upper Westchester and Putnam are going to see at least 8 inches out of this storm...maybe more than a foot in spots. 

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This is why with a Miller A storm the EURO is not to be taken lightly. It makes its reputation on these type of storms. Score another one for King EURO!

lol...no thanks im pretty sure that model was showing warning level snow for me(northern nassau)like 24 hours ago...hate to break the news to you that models a joke like all the others are 

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