Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 it certainly doesnt hurt lol. a little rac is actually beneficial for surface temps after this mild day. It helps more over the interior where there is less horizontal motion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The 0z NAM Bukfit shows all snow tomorrow afternoon for EWR. LGA and JFK changing to sleet around 18z. Warm tounge between around 700mb. UVVs are -20 ubs so maybe we can overcome it? Far out in its range, but the HRRR is warmer out to 15 and 16 hours..heavy rain at EWR/NYC at 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Just wait when the blocking sets up in the coming weeks. That's when the real fun begins. Indeee this is why im not dissapointed with this storm. We get the blocking it will help us out greatly to get better cold air entrenched along the EC. Mid december on we should be ramping up for the heart of winter with a weak el nino to boot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RGEM going to be a close call but looks like more mositure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Far out in its range, but the HRRR is warmer out to 15 and 16 hours..heavy rain at EWR/NYC at 11am 12km Nam has Bufkit 11.0" of snow for EWR. The 4km NAM is warmer though. Shows a change to sleet for EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RGEM is a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RGEM is warmer this run. It's almost all rain for NYC and points Southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 0z RGEM Terrible for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Immediate suburbs still get clobbered. But it's warmer on LI and in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RGEM is super warm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 0z RGEM Terrible for the coast It's similar to the NAM idea...warmer near the coast and on Long Island...hammer job for anybody 20 miles or so W or NW of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 You can see how even though the SLP is farther west on the RGEM compared to 12z, the dynamics and heavier precipitation cool the column west of EWR. Western Union, Essex, Bergen counties on North/westward stay mostly snow ..maybe mix with IP for a time. OKX looks really good right now especially in Union/Essex with warnings only in the western parts of those counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The RGEM has 6-8" of snow for Southern Westchester County, while SE NYC has 1-2" of snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Something I like with these models is the moisture content. I'm telling you, these models have slightly (1 or 2 degrees) warmer initialization temps, as many of us have had lower temps then forecasted, these little temp swings mean the world in storms like these. correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's similar to the NAM idea...warmer near the coast and on Long Island...hammer job for anybody 20 miles or so W or NW of nyc. If you are 20-60 miles NW of the city the RGEM says fire up your snowblower.. Thats def one model I want on my side at this time frame thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Damn. oh so close here near Somerville (SMQ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 ^ That image was meant to be attached to the above post. Sorry, coming from mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Whoa! That's gonna be some crazy sleet fest for KNYC at 6PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Rgem hugs the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 You can see how even though the SLP is farther west on the RGEM compared to 12z, the dynamics and heavier precipitation cool the column west of EWR. Western Union, Essex, Bergen counties on North/westward stay mostly snow ..maybe mix with IP for a time. OKX looks really good right now especially in Union/Essex with warnings only in the western parts of those counties. That's way too close for comfort.. Major bust potential in either direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's way too close for comfort.. Major bust potential in either direction Yeah... 10-20 miles in either direction can have large implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Something I like with these models is the moisture content. I'm telling you, these models have slightly (1 or 2 degrees) warmer initialization temps, as many of us have had lower temps then forecasted, these little temp swings mean the world in storms like these. correct me if I am wrong. Having lower temps right now doesn't mean much for what's happening 12-18 hours from now. Also I wouldn't rely on TWC for temp forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's way too close for comfort.. Major bust potential in either direction ...Said many people 4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The Euro has had its 700s pressed up against the city for the last 3 days . Amazing job by that model . It really never waivered . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 If you are 20-60 miles NW of the city the RGEM says fire up your snowblower.. Thats def one model I want on my side at this time frame thats for sure Oh yeah...it handles the thermal profiles really well at this juncture. It definitely was encouraging to see the NAM get cooler because it was the warmest model at least aloft. Seeing the 650-700mb warm tongue not make it to EWR was really encouraging for my forecast which has amounts on the high end of 3-5" in the Western burbs of NYC. But at the same time, I think there could be two local maxima at least relative to surrounding areas. One in Morris Co, Passaic Co and Bergen Co NJ and another in SE NY, W CT. The NE NJ max could come as a result of frontogenesis and enhanced lift on the NW side of thermal packing. You almost always get high snow totals right on the NW periphery of the mid level warm tongue....thank a TROWAL for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Well the good (or bad) thing here is that the outcome will not be exactly as the models show. It'll either be further east (and more frozen) or west (and less). Makes it a bit more exciting, eh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The HRRR is ticking warmer each run it seems...pouring rain at 9:00am. http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2014112602/nyc/hrrr_ref_nyc_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Meteograms have NYC with 20mm frozen. 11 of it as snow and 9 of it as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Still shades of December 2005 here. Must be karma...there eventually has to be some payback for staying all frozen back in February when even Orange Co had rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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