NEG NAO Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 What a snow bomb that run was....850 was significantly further s/e as well.... Now the question is - is this run of the NAM to be believed ? Have to wait for the rest of the 0Z model runs and see if they trend in the same direction as the 0Z NAM to make that determination..........then after that its time for some NOWCASTING and also some input from the shorter range models.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Now the question is - is this run of the NAM to be believed ? Have to wait for the rest of the 0Z model runs and see if they trend in the same direction as the 0Z NAM to make that determination..........then after that its time for some NOWCASTING and also some input from the shorter range models.......... Rgem,ggem,nam,srefs,euro all have good snows in NYC points west...gfs is only skunker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Now the question is - is this run of the NAM to be believed ? Have to wait for the rest of the 0Z model runs and see if they trend in the same direction as the 0Z NAM to make that determination..........then after that its time for some NOWCASTING and also some input from the shorter range models.......... Nam still warms nyc at 18z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Just a quick thanks to earthlight other mods and red taggers for stopping in after the nonsense and giving input after the nonsense earlier. Means a lot to me and I'm sure I speak for others lurkers and active posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Nice water vapor view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 2nd that emotion. Big thx to mods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Nice water vapor view This system definitely has a great moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 im not so sure that wind direction is going to hurt the coastal plain so much here... That's not my point...the point is radiational cooling the night before one of these things is not going to play a role in making it colder when the rain or snow moves in. Its just a shallow, thin layer of cool air near the ground...and one that probably features conditionally stable air...i.e. an inversion or a low level thermal profile that features an increase in temperature with height...and one that is rather easily scoured out once the wind starts to blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This system definitely has a great moisture feed. Panama to Maine .. Lol I would say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Thanks for the pbp earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's not my point...the point is radiational cooling the night before one of these things is not going to play a role in making it colder when the rain or snow moves in. Its just a shallow, thin layer of cool air near the ground...and one that probably features conditionally stable air...i.e. an inversion or an increase in temperature with increased altitude. True.....I'm sure we've all seen it go from at least the 50s to 30s with snow AND from the teens to upper 30s and rain..it happens so quickly and the airmass that was in place is quickly a part of history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's not my point...the point is radiational cooling the night before one of these things is not going to play a role in making it colder when the rain or snow moves in. Its just a shallow, thin layer of cool air near the ground...and one that probably features conditionally stable air...i.e. an inversion or a low level thermal profile that features an increase in temperature with height. Couldn't be more correct. A few winters ago west Hampton dropped into the low teens under clear sky's only to rain a few hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Nice water vapor view El Niño doing it's work. It's very encouraging to see the subtopical jet running up thru the gulf of Mexico and not California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's not my point...the point is radiational cooling the night before one of these things is not going to play a role in making it colder when the rain or snow moves in. Its just a shallow, thin layer of cool air near the ground...and one that probably features conditionally stable air...i.e. an inversion or a low level thermal profile that features an increase in temperature with height...and one that is rather easily scoured out once the wind starts to blow. exactly that is why wind direction in this event is so critical -especailly with a warm November Atlantic- have to pay attention to hourly observations in this situation and also watch the radars that differentiate between rain and snow to get a general idea which way that line is moving - in other words after the 0Z model runs its NOWCASTING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This was an *extremely* wet run of the NAM with a huge chunk of heavily populated real estate progged to see 1.5 to 2.0 inches of liquid...if that comes down as snow...as it likely will over the interior...this is a historic November snow event for this part of the country. Tremendous commuting problems can be anticipated on the heaviest travel day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's not my point...the point is radiational cooling the night before one of these things is not going to play a role in making it colder when the rain or snow moves in. Its just a shallow, thin layer of cool air near the ground...and one that probably features conditionally stable air...i.e. an inversion or a low level thermal profile that features an increase in temperature with height...and one that is rather easily scoured out once the wind starts to blow. good post. some of this can be ovecome with heavy precip rates, right? that being said, i think anytime it lightens up the coastap plane is looking at a lot of snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This was an *extremely* wet run of the NAM with a huge chunk of heavily populated real estate progged to see 1.5 to 2.0 inches of liquid...if that comes down as snow...as it likely will over the interior...this is a historic November snow event for this part of the country. i've seen this move by the NAM before, although I guess some people have been posting that the NAM has not been as bad in this regard recently Still it always seems like there is one run of the NAM that is a precip bomb during every winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I think were at the point where we switch to the obvservation/nowcast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I think were at the point where we switch to the obvservation/nowcast thread. why? there is still plenty of value in looking at the 0z model runs, especially the short term models, but I know that I would still value tonight's Euro run in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's not my point...the point is radiational cooling the night before one of these things is not going to play a role in making it colder when the rain or snow moves in. Its just a shallow, thin layer of cool air near the ground...and one that probably features conditionally stable air...i.e. an inversion or a low level thermal profile that features an increase in temperature with height...and one that is rather easily scoured out once the wind starts to blow. it certainly doesnt hurt lol. a little rac is actually beneficial for surface temps after this mild day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This was an *extremely* wet run of the NAM with a huge chunk of heavily populated real estate progged to see 1.5 to 2.0 inches of liquid...if that comes down as snow...as it likely will over the interior...this is a historic November snow event for this part of the country. Tremendous commuting problems can be anticipated on the heaviest travel day of the year. Pretty sure this run cut back on precip. amounts for most people vs 18z (and even 12z), no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 El Niño doing it's work. It's very encouraging to see the subtopical jet running up thru the gulf of Mexico and not California. Just wait when the blocking sets up in the coming weeks. That's when the real fun begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's not my point...the point is radiational cooling the night before one of these things is not going to play a role in making it colder when the rain or snow moves in. Its just a shallow, thin layer of cool air near the ground...and one that probably features conditionally stable air...i.e. an inversion or a low level thermal profile that features an increase in temperature with height...and one that is rather easily scoured out once the wind starts to blow. True - would raise the probability of freezing rain under certain circumstances & locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Just wait when the blocking sets up in the coming weeks. That's when the real fun begins. True, that's another ingredient the NYC folks need in addition to a cold air mass in the proper place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The warm layer is through Long Island by 18z..and straddling NYC...but not at 700mb...now it's at 925mb. There are multiple warm layers and this is a really crappy thermal profile east of the city still. But this run is way better for anyone west of there. The storm is almost totally screwed for east of the city and down along coastal NJ-even this colder NAM run is vast majority sleet/rain mix for anyone near the coast. I'll be happy with an inch between the front and end. This one's for west of the city for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Pretty sure this run cut back on precip. amounts for most people vs 18z (and even 12z), no? When I wrote the post I had not looked at the 12z or 18z runs...and, upon review you make a fair point of comparison...though when I look at these things...my focus is usually on LI & SNE...and that area did look very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 EWR stays mostly if not all snow on the NAM...and it's really ripping here at 21hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The storm is almost totally screwed for east of the city and down along coastal NJ-even this colder NAM run is vast majority sleet/rain mix for anyone near the coast. I'll be happy with an inch between the front and end. This one's for west of the city for sure. And North of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The 0z NAM Bukfit shows all snow tomorrow afternoon for EWR. LGA and JFK changing to sleet around 18z. Warm tounge between 650-750mb. UVVs are -20 ubs so maybe we can overcome it? LGA sees 3" of snow before change to sleet. About another 2" when the change back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 True, that's another ingredient the NYC folks need in addition to a cold air mass in the proper place. Well if you look at the GEFS ensembles at 300 hours you see the Aleutian trof coming back. Some of the spaghetti plots show ridging in the EPO and PNA regions...let's hope that continues in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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