Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The thing that could ultimately kill it for the coastal plain & city would be the 1020 mb anticyclone parked over New Brunswick (Canada, not New Jersey). Just a terrible place for it and w/o a legitimate cold air source (in November, no less)...could be a problem. TWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yeah, to really accumulate it's going to have to come down very hard since we won't have a rapid drop off in temperature dipping below freezing That's the key here. If we can get some serious rates 40dbz type stuff it's gonna stick to everything. I think allot of people will be surprised when it's puking big fat flakes that it sticks. There was a strong nor'easter November 1997 where it was supposed to be all rain for Long Island but during some seriously intense rates we flipped to heavy wet snow that stuck for a while. As rates decreased it went back to rain and washed away what ever has accumulated. That's what I truly believe is going to happen tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 at the end of the run (hr 15) it shows the rain snow line collapsing and is moisture loaded the HRRR is a home run hitter that strikes out a lot. it can bust badly just 3 hours out, or nail it 7 hours out. but it's way out of it's range right now. i wore out the HRRR site last winter, and came away a bit of a skeptic. but it's certainly highly entertaining to check every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 will the winds come from the east? I thought that the winds would be coming down from the north? right now as of 8 PM most wind direction is from the w or sw http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Another note for the uninitiated: *Never* use the GFS for 2 meter temperature forecasting during stormy periods along the coast. Errors of up to 5 degrees happen quite often. This is amply demonstrated by the number of times the GFS text forecast products will show wx conditions of "rain" at Bridgeport CT while concurrently forecasting "snow" at Kennedy Airport. Realistically, this sort of thing happens about as frequently as there is a blue moon. The GFS is a global model and has very limited insight into mesoscale matters...I did hear there was an upgrade in the offseason; I do not know if that particular shortcoming was addressed however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 SREF are warmer and farther northwest from their 15z run. Noticeably so, too. H7 warming now gets inland past Newark. Keep in mind this is glancing only at coarse maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Lines up well with Uptons forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 are all of these computer generated snowfall maps taking into account that the ground is still warm - the air temps are above 32 and that a good portion of the snow will be falling during daylight hours ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 SREF are warmer and farther northwest from their 15z run. Noticeably so, too. H7 warming now gets inland past Newark. Keep in mind this is glancing only at coarse maps. Is the warming later in the afternoon? The NAM showed the warming moving in further after somewhat of a front end thump, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 SREF are warmer and farther northwest from their 15z run. Noticeably so, too. H7 warming now gets inland past Newark. Keep in mind this is glancing only at coarse maps. I don't have access to the 700 mb progs so my question is, is the warm air 8000 feet up or so coming in from the east or the south or both...since you specifically say "gets inland past Newark". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 SREF are warmer and farther northwest from their 15z run. Noticeably so, too. H7 warming now gets inland past Newark. Keep in mind this is glancing only at coarse maps.It looks like the snow total plumes were cut an inch or two across NYC areas, but actually increased by an inch at EWR from the last run. In regards to the SREF snow totals map, I assume that takes into account all frozen precip with a 10:1 ratio ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 39.6F in Norwalk; much cooler than the 45F that was predicted for this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Rap moves the 700 mb line across at 17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 39.6F in Norwalk; much cooler than the 45F that was predicted for this time. we have been asking about sky conditions - what are your sky conditions ? We are trying to figure out if this is radiational cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 we have been asking about sky conditions - what are your sky conditions ? We are trying to figure out if this is radiational cooling Partly cloudy. I can see some of the brighter stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This storm is going to disappoint alot of folks. But there could also be some nice surprises. It will be interesting to watch this unfold. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Still 4 inches on the sref mean for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Hey PT. What's your link so we follow your forecasts? Thanks, Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Still 4 inches on the sref mean for nyc Problem is that the SREF mean maps are probably using a 10:1 ratio and not accounting for melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Rap moves the 700 mb line across at 17z. Across what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Across what nw of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The NAM has completely altered its look again at 700mb through 12 hours so we should see something different once again here. But the H7 low still looks to be closing too far west for anybody east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Much cooler at 700mb through 13 hours, the thermal profile differences are really remarkable on this model from run to run. Really inconsistent and not worth any weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 hr 13 700 mb -4 runs along 95 00z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 nw of nyc The tail end of the RAP run is worth about as much as NAM QPF at 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 hr 13 700 mb -4 runs along 95 00z nam hr 14 -4 700mb pushing towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 WHOA is the NAM coming in colder & farther SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Through 14 hours the HiRes NAM is much colder at 700mb level compared to the 18z run, and that goes from DC all the way to NYC. Obviously we can't say for sure that this means more snow, because it's only a sliver of the thermal profile, but it's a very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The tail end of the RAP run is worth about as much as NAM QPF at 72 hours Out of scotch plains, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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