friedmators Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That one is nice it isn't the one I am looking for though. The one I am looking for a few people have posted as an image. It has a bar graph with snow/sleet/rain. thats wxbell...weatherbell.com free 7 day trial i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I was just thinking this would have been an awesome storm if it had a colder antecedent airmass. It probably would've been a solid MECS. Yeah the 18z gfs ain't pretty but it could be an off run. I'll go with the Euro and Rgem right now they seem to perform the best. RGEM/EURO especially for Miller A's is a pretty accurate combination. The 18z GFS has been known to release some terrible run to run consistency. I mean note what it said for reference but i wouldnt put too much stock into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 how many times has the 18z gofus done this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 how many times has the 18z gofus done this! Did you see my post with the sounding, not looking good for nyc right now. Maybe 1 - 3 tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Did you see my post with the sounding, not looking good for nyc right now. Maybe 1 - 3 tops. yes i noticed it still is probably ok for poconos and catskills not so much elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Did you see my post with the sounding, not looking good for nyc right now. Maybe 1 - 3 tops. 1-3 snow-sleet for NYC would still be one of the best frozen accumulations during the last week of November in recent times. A good November is anything over 0.3". NYC November SNOWFALL...0.3 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Did you see my post with the sounding, not looking good for nyc right now. Maybe 1 - 3 tops. Jumping ship based on an 18Z GFS run? Where's DT when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Something worth being mindful of, from the HPC's latest heavy snowfall disco: THE OTHER OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE ENHANCED RAINS ANDCONVECTION THATS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND ANTICIPATEDALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NC/GULF STREAM THAT WILL PROHIBIT THEPLETHORA OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE COLD SECTOR ANDENHANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Remember, even if the RGEM shows .8" QPF as snow for example, you have to remember ratios are terrible & a lot of that snow would probably be wasted on non-accumulation snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Currently temperatures of 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 When did they change all the winter storm names? Winter storm advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM This is a very tough forecast with respect to where the R/S line sets up. Correct me if I'm wrong but there will be very little "mixing" with this storm, correct? Due to thermal profiles, arent we looking at either plain rain or snow? That said, we won't know until tomorrow how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is a very tough forecast with respect to where the R/S line sets up. Correct me if I'm wrong but there will be very little "mixing" with this storm, correct? Due to thermal profiles, arent we looking at either plain rain or snow? That said, we won't know until tomorrow how this plays out. Correct, your either going to get rain or snow. 18z GGEM SNOWMAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The cutoff between 10 inches of snow and like 5 inches between somewhere around west newark, and NYC is insane. (reference to RGEM snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJeff1019 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The cutoff between 10 inches of snow and like 5 inches between somewhere around west newark, and NYC is insane. (reference to RGEM snowmap. Where in Union are you from? I have lived in Union my whole life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where in Union are you from? I have lived in Union my whole life Yeah, I'm located in Union as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Correct, your either going to get rain or snow. 18z GGEM SNOWMAP Correct me if I am wrong but this seems to be a snowier solution vs the others for manhattan/Bronx and N&W. Very sharp cutoff tho east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 House cleaning. Keep it on-topic, limit the weenie posts, and quit the trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I didn't know snow and penis went together...anyway at least the RGEM is encouraging. We just need some banding to overcome that sneaky 700 tongue. I think thats what saves the western half of queens, immediate areas points N/W. Off hour RGEM runs tend to be bad, if the 00z is unchanged I'll feel better overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 HRRR looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 there's some reason for snow-lovers to be encouraged a little bit by this afternoon's new model output, both the ECMWF, CMC and NAM have trended a little colder for the peak of this storm with a significant increase in vertical velocities on the NAM. But that said, it is the NAM. I see the NWS has jumped the gun and pulled the trigger for 4-6" totals in the region. I think they may have gone too far. My basic impression of this storm situation has not really changed much, I just think based on the latest maps, there may be a little more energy to this system and precipitation intensity may raise amounts an inch or so in all locations. So, I'm thinking 3-6" north/ne/nw of the city, a coating (much of coastal NJ and Long Island except nw Nassau Cty which could do better) to 3" in the city and along the coast. But I really think that most coastal sections will get closer to an inch than 3". Those are my latest thoughts. Rain should begin after midnight tonight, become heavy at times before mixing with a changing to snow tomorrow early afternoon, the steady snow ending sometime between 7pm-10pm tomorrow night. After that just some flurries windy and cold through Thanksgiving Day. The GFS, however, remains quite warm at mid and upper levels and that still concerns me especially since we're starting this out with a warm surface. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 HRRR looks great For what areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 For what areas? Rap not Hrrr. Hrrr is 950 mb too warm. Rap looks good snow by 15z...and 1 inch hour. :sled: :sled: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The cutoff between 10 inches of snow and like 5 inches between somewhere around west newark, and NYC is insane. (reference to RGEM snowmap. That' happened December 05. Just further east I still don't buy that's happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Evening guys, Do you have any live tv forecasts or stream for the storm? It's always much easier to get a grip of how things are panning out. As an example - Florida has this kind of thing > http://www.wruf.com/weather/watch-live/#.U6IMl_ldXwh Sorry to be a pain, would be a great help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This subforum is awesome. And the HRRR is still out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That' happened December 05. Just further east I still don't buy that's happening here It's very unlikely in this setup the entire thing feels weird as I don't recall off hand a storm tracking east of us which was as dynamic as this where we didn't go over to a decent period of snow but in this case the 700 low tracks inland, this could potentially bust even worse than we think to the extent even inland areas see very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This subforum is awesome. And the HRRR is still out of range. at the end of the run (hr 15) it shows the rain snow line collapsing and is moisture loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The RAP does look good. Quick cool down at all levels with surface hovering around 35-37 or so close to the city and around 33 further west. West of the Garden State Parkway looks to benefit most after this transition. The RAP however is way out of it's range I've found, and as others have said, it's best within 10 hours or so. But, it is more encouraging to see it in our favor than not at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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