Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 New Upton totals, slashing amounts by a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ???? shows 11/27/14 unless I am missing an inside joeApparently my cache is corrupted but no way to clear? On mobile thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM went crazy with the 700mb low-it closes off over the Delaware River and moves up to the Berkshires. That would be a horrendous torch at mid levels for much of SNE and obviously much of our area. It's unsupported now by other guidance so it's likely over done. And yet again this thread's turning into crap. Like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 New Upton totals, slashing amounts by a few inches I kind of like this call except I think NYC ends up with less than 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM has some pretty intense VVs at 700mb for a good 12-15 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Apparently my cache is corrupted but no way to clear? On mobile thx Go into your settings and clear your catche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sounds like Upton is not going to change any of the watches just yet as warning criteria wouldn't be met until tomorrow night in those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM went crazy with the 700mb low-it closes off over the Delaware River and moves up to the Berkshires. That would be a horrendous torch at mid levels for much of SNE and obviously much of our area. It's unsupported now by other guidance so it's likely over done. And yet again this thread's turning into crap. Like clockwork. It did the same thing at 12z with the 700mb low, although it was stronger this time around. That same feature is responsible for getting the heavier rates inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sounds like Upton is not going to change any of the watches just yet as warning criteria wouldn't be met until tomorrow night in those areas I could see them pulling the trigger later tonight (with enough model support warranted) so that there is enough advance awareness in the morning as to what to expect. Going to be a lot of people mulling about even outside of travel in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Apparently my cache is corrupted but no way to clear? On mobile thx Try going directly? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It did the same thing at 12z with the 700mb low, although it was stronger this time around. That same feature is responsible for getting the heavier rates inland. I'd go much more with the Euro and other guidance that shows it weaker. The NAM frequently goes bonkers and overdoes VVs and therefore the strength of these mid level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 New Upton totals, slashing amounts by a few inches Very smart of them to lower totals - no bias here (work in NYC/Hoboken area) but this one favors n/w of the city - it amazes me people are so immature when it comes to weather though. Nothing but bickering the past several pages.. Some storms will favor coastal areas, some favor interior areas, this one is the latter.. It's weather, and while I love snow, it's important to remember it's just that... snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Everyone who said the Nam was a joke is suddenly gung ho about it. I don't get it. If the NAM has a reliable range we're now inside it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM went crazy with the 700mb low-it closes off over the Delaware River and moves up to the Berkshires. That would be a horrendous torch at mid levels for much of SNE and obviously much of our area. It's unsupported now by other guidance so it's likely over done. And yet again this thread's turning into crap. Like clockwork. The GFS is fairly close east of NYC so the areas that don't go all out sleet will have rimmed flakes or snow pellets west of sleet zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 700mb low on the 12z RGEM develops in nearly the same spot as the NAM. I don't know enough about those high res precip maps to say whether or not they are smart enough to make sure all levels are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd go much more with the Euro and other guidance that shows it weaker. The NAM frequently goes bonkers and overdoes VVs and therefore the strength of these mid level lows. Used to be QPF totals, now it might be the VV profile. I can't realistically believe what it's showing there and I think it may be overdoing it. If it verified though, would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I've held onto hope with an 850mb low going west of the City and getting burned badly. Seeing it happening at 700mb, I'm not getting fooled again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 After taking a closer look at the 12z RGEM, the only reason it stays colder on the coast is because by the time the 700mb low gets going, precip is shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I've held onto hope with an 850mb low going west of the City and getting burned badly. Seeing it happening at 700mb, I'm not getting fooled again... The warm air isn't coming from where it does usually-750 to 800mb, it's coming from well above that so 650-700mb. And yes, whenever you see the mid level lows west of you, it's almost a guarantee that much of what you see is sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What do you call that big blob sitting off the coast then? 01.png the nam is twice as strong as this...hence the heat feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NYC proper, Hudson, immediate burbs are advisory, W Union, W Essex, W Bergen join the warning camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Do people STILL not understand that you cannot post ECMWF content on here? It's not a hard concept... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the nam is twice as strong as this...hence the heat feedback. The only difference is that the NAM is closer to the coast with it because the mid-level tracks are closer to the coast on the NAM than they are on the GFS or the Euro. It has nothing to do with convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd go much more with the Euro and other guidance that shows it weaker. The NAM frequently goes bonkers and overdoes VVs and therefore the strength of these mid level lows. the NAM takes the short bus to school every day. why does anyone take it seriously, ever? especially 06/18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 After taking a closer look at the 12z RGEM, the only reason it stays colder on the coast is because by the time the 700mb low gets going, precip is shutting off. Ok. So why dismiss it then and ride the NAM? RGEM was lethal last year in a lot of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the NAM takes the short bus to school every day. why does anyone take it seriously, ever? especially 06/18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This thread is deplorable by all parties involved in this. Mods should handout 5 ppd likecandy here.I can't even get through this thread. No wonder red taggers don't stay here. Shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sucks that it is just to warm. Could have been a nice early season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meanwhile back to actual weater discussion: WWA are now in effect for the Winter storm watch areas in and around NYC ( except for LI) 3-5 inches forcast down from 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Advisory hoisted for 5 boros + N. Nassau County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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