hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The model errors on dewpoints are a bigger issue - they're busting 7-10F too warm on dewpoints, but only ~2F too cool on temps. so, you would expect a bit lower surface temps based on this analysis after precip starts falling I pressume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM looks more amped shortwave/kicker system seems to be further west this run, so it might allow the NAM to be a bit further west this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I lived there when it was Passaic Township. You guys are in the "Florida" of Morris Co as I am now in the "Florida" of NJ! My grandparents lived in Scotch Plains and i recall gradient storms where we doubled their snows in Millington. I also remember northern Morris killing us in totals. Exactly. It is the truth, never hard that analogy but for Morris County, 100%. Its crazy. I can hop on 287 and drive up 1 exit when you get almost to exit 35 for downtown Morristown, and it will turn. I will be in sleet/snow/rain mix, and it changed literally at the same spot everytime we have mixing issues. I can have 2-3 inches, and Morristown Northward will have 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Mt Holly updated totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Slight trend today towards a slower evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Mt Holly updated totals Nice bump to meet Uptons totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anyone care to extrapolate so monmouth/no o ran ctys snowfall totals please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM is West of 12z and slower. This will probably be the wettest run we've had of any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Mt Holly updated totals You're kidding correct!!?? That's from last Friggin March!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 700mb 0c line runs west of the GSP by 17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 JFK, LGA are > +4C by 18z 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nice bump to meet Uptons totals...Yeah rite...you look at the date of that map!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 700mb freezlng line makes it to about the Passaic/Morris County border and stalls. Ping Ping Ping for the coast, rain for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah rite...you look at the date of that map!?It's the correct date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah rite...you look at the date of that map!? Clear your cache, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What on earth are you talking about?Look at date at bottom right of map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 1.25"+ liquid by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can we stop this crap while PBP is ongoing? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Are you for real? it says Nov 27 plain as dayOk well mine says march 03, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Clear your cache, dude.Ok will try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My county (Middlesex NJ) is now under a winter weather advisory for 3-6" of snow yet the Mt.Holly snow map has most of Middlesex in 2-4" of snow with the exception of the northwest portion of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 interesting changes in the NAM, the kicker seems to be a bit more west/also, its slower with the evolution hence wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 850's are plenty cold, the only issue is 700mb. City doesn't go below freezing until 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My county (Middlesex NJ) is now under a winter weather advisory for 3-6" of snow yet the Mt.Holly snow map has most of Middlesex in 2-4" of snow with the exception of the northwest portion of the county. Yeah just saw that. Matches well with their updated map. Warning for Somerset/Morris on north and west. Upton should be updating soon with warnings or advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 850's are plenty cold, the only issue is 700mb. City doesn't go below freezing until 23z. The surface will likely go 32-33 if the precip rates are really that heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Clear your cache, dude. yep, he need to hit refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This matches the 12z RGEM nearly perfectly, just a little warmer at the mid-levels for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 its a touch slower this run, besides that very similar to this mornings run, maybe be a good thing that its Slightly slower a bit more time for the cold air to sneak in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The surface will likely go 32-33 if the precip rates are really that heavy. It's a sleet profile, narrow warm layer at 700mb but it's definitly there until at least 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Somerset just got put into a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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