snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm not sure I buy the Euro in this setup, I'm leaning RGEM and NAM thermals Is it time to start riding the SR Hi-Res models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This thread is getting a bit long/banter is beginning between the two. 24hrs from the event so I started the OBS thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44978-thanksgiving-eve-storm-obs-and-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The inflated WxBell maps have 1-2" for Brooklyn, 2-4" north of the BQE. 4-6" NW of the NJ TPK, 3-5" for the immediate NW burbs. 6-8" for the I-80 area and NE Bergen County, NJ. 9-14" for the higher elevations of northern Morris, Western Passaic, most of Rockland and Westchester Counties and then eastward into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Guys just assume all pbp features are rough estimates until you can see a map for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks yanks helps out a lot of people at work on their Mobiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The inflated WxBell maps have 1-2" for Brooklyn, 2-4" north of the BQE. 4-6" NW of the NJ TPK, 3-5" for the immediate NW burbs. 6-8" for the I-80 area and NE Bergen County, NJ. 9-14" for the higher elevations of northern Morris, Western Passaic, most of Rockland and Westchester Counties and then eastward into CT. I am southern tip of Morris County, and border of somerset and union... that little piece at the bottom of morris county... I can never figure out the NWS because I am split at the bottom. I usually take a bit of each forecast. Care to share what I am looking at? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I am southern tip of Morris County, and border of somerset and union... that little piece at the bottom of morris county... I can never figure out the NWS because I am split at the bottom. I usually take a bit of each forecast. Care to share what I am looking at? Thanks! You're in a warning yet the point and click forecast says rain all day and Mt holly maps show you 2-4 so good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You're in a warning yet the point and click forecast says rain all day and Mt holly maps show you 2-4 so good luck with that haha exactly. you see what I get to deal with lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 haha exactly. you see what I get to deal with lol I'd say when they update the maps you're area's a lock for 4+. You're probably about 250-300 feet right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd say when they update the maps you're area's a lock for 4+. You're probably about 250-300 feet right? Precisely. 265-270 to be exact. From Rt 22, you come up all the hills to enter warren/berkely heights etc. For years, rt 22 can have no snow and we have 3-4 inches, if they have 3-4 inches we have 6-8. Not everytime, but storms like this where the gradient can be crazy this is what happens. I am only about 10-12 minutes from Rt 22. But when you go up in elevation it makes a difference. When you go up any of the big hills (like Washington Rock for example). It will change to sleet/snow midway, and then be snow at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I am southern tip of Morris County, and border of somerset and union... that little piece at the bottom of morris county... I can never figure out the NWS because I am split at the bottom. I usually take a bit of each forecast. Care to share what I am looking at? Thanks! Long Hill Township? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Long Hill Township? Yep. Hello neighbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I am southern tip of Morris County, and border of somerset and union... that little piece at the bottom of morris county... I can never figure out the NWS because I am split at the bottom. I usually take a bit of each forecast. Care to share what I am looking at? Thanks! 6-8", that's what I refer to as the I-80 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yep. Hello neighbor You may need more elevation to accumulate >4". I assume you're close to the Great Swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You may need more elevation to accumulate >4". I assume you're close to the Great Swamp. Yeah its a 3-4 ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The Euro may be a little too warm at the surface but the sloppy inch or two it shows for eastern parts of NYC and western LI is probably right. I'd say 2-5" for most of NYC and then 6"+ starting in western Bergen, Passaic, Morris, etc. Maybe we can squeeze out a miracle down here if the mid levels stay cool and the surface drops down to 33-34, but I wouldn't count on that at all. Ratios will be awful as well, so the most I could possibly see down along the coast is 3-4". More than an inch and I'll be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 IsentropicLift (yanksfan).....You might not have the level of meteorological knowledge compared to the mets and some of the other hobbyists on these forums, but as another said.....it is a good thing that someone does the play by plays of these models fairly consistently during storms. Some of the swaying during model interpretations quite honestly has annoyed me at times, but you do a better job than many others could, myself included. KUDOS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The Euro may be a little too warm at the surface but the sloppy inch or two it shows for eastern parts of NYC and western LI is probably right. I'd say 2-5" for most of NYC and then 6"+ starting in western Bergen, Passaic, Morris, etc. Maybe we can squeeze out a miracle down here if the mid levels stay cool and the surface drops down to 33-34, but I wouldn't count on that at all. Ratios will be awful as well, so the most I could possibly see down along the coast is 3-4". More than an inch and I'll be thrilled. The caveat will be where heavy banding sets up. It could rain/taint all day and change to heavy wet snow for only 2-3 hours and pick up a quick 4-6" especially at night. Meanwhile just west of there the snow may be lighter and amounts lower despite cooler temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The caveat will be where heavy banding sets up. It could rain/taint all day and change to heavy wet snow for only 2-3 hours and pick up a quick 4-6" especially at night. Meanwhile just west of there the snow may be lighter and amounts lower despite cooler temps agree, something to watch for later tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM really shows some banding along 95. One side of the town would be snow, other side would be rain. Dynamics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM really shows some banding along 95. One side of the town would be snow, other side would be rain. Dynamics at play. That happened to my buddy right off 95 by amboy area. His neighbor on his northwest side of the development had snow and like 2-3 inches on the lawn and sidewalk, and the houses by the exit on the south side had rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The models are doing a poor job on dewpoints. GFS running about 7F too warm and NAM/RGEM about 10F too warm. They are running about 2F too cool on current temps. To me this makes their temp forecasts as the precip. begins tomorrow suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like almost all the 15z SREF members are tucked in. A few OTS members skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The models are doing a poor job on dewpoints. GFS running about 7F too warm and NAM/RGEM about 10F too warm. They are running about 2F too cool on current temps. To me this makes their temp forecasts as the precip. begins tomorrow suspect. Dews to high and temps a bit too warm mean???? Expecting lower temps after precip starts at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The city is just west of the 1.5"+ contour on the 15z SREF mean. 1"+ back into NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Also, all models are too slow to deepen the sfc low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Based on buoy reports, the low is at 1010 mb currently. The 6z GFS and NAM had it about 1013 and 1015 mb, respectively. I only have the Euro in 4 mb intervals, but the 0Z run had the low around 1014 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 JConsor - referring to your post about temps/dews. What will be the biggest monkey wrench potentially - the drier than modeled air or the warmer than modeled air? Or is it a wash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The model errors on dewpoints are a bigger issue - they're busting 7-10F too warm on dewpoints, but only ~2F too cool on temps. JConsor - referring to your post about temps/dews. What will be the biggest monkey wrench potentially - the drier than modeled air or the warmer than modeled air? Or is it a wash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yep. Hello neighbor I lived there when it was Passaic Township. You guys are in the "Florida" of Morris Co as I am now in the "Florida" of NJ! My grandparents lived in Scotch Plains and i recall gradient storms where we doubled their snows in Millington. I also remember northern Morris killing us in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like almost all the 15z SREF members are tucked in. A few OTS members skewing the mean. Still leaning to the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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