jjvesnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukie is really nice for the city Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukie reliable at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My guess is city and urban nj get advisories. Perhaps warnings for Western union/Essex and the rest of Passaic/Bergen I agree IMO as of right now the city and immediate surrounding areas only get 2 or 3 inches out of this unless new information comes in lowering the temps at all levels a couple of degrees.and or we get some impressive mesoscale banding............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I guess we will see what happens as even the forecasts are very uncertain who gets what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 850mb frontogenesis forecast off the 12z NAM, very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 The calm before the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 More interaction from the trailing energy on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hour 24 right over Wilmington, NC. Moderate precip moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hour 27 double barraled low, one near OBX, the other lagging behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hour 30 east of VA beach, crush job commence, surface is warm but the rest looks okay at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hour 33 near 73W 38N, moderate snows back to Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 850mb frontogenesis forecast off the 12z NAM, very impressive. namNE_850_fronto_033.gif I would look a little above there for signs of frontogenical forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hour 36 over 72W, 39N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 EURO looks drier to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Likely tracks over the BM or even just outside, about 0.25" QPF falls after 00z in the city, presumably all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 700Mb looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 1" line on the Euro is at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 1" line on the Euro is at NYC. Seems inline with the GFS that people were knocking as wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It is a hair drier, city is right on the 1.00" contour. 0.75"+ makes it back to State College. The problem this run is 925mb is above freezing until around 12-15z, but that's when the lighter stuff is falling anyway. This is rain to heavy snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seems inline with the GFS that people were knocking as wrong The GFS is nowhere near as West with the heavier rates. It's more than just looking at QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's about an 18 hour event on the Euro from start to finish. 8AM to about 2AM, roughly. Height of the storm from about noon to 8-9PM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's about an 18 hour event on the Euro from start to finish. 8AM to about 2AM, roughly. Height of the storm from about noon to 8-9PM or so. 18 hours? seems a bit excessive...how were you determining that if i may ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So if we take the thermal profiles and duration of the Euro and combine that with the intensity of the NAM we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 snow map anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Probably a 12-14 hour event not 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18 hours? seems a bit excessive...how were you determining that if i may ask 0.10"+ has fallen by 12z and 0.10"+ falls between 00z and 06z. Then another few hundreths between 06z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The .75" contour is nowhere near State College. I make it .4". Maps are hard, I know. This is why I get pissed off and don't want to do Euro PBP Look again, the line runs from West of Sullivan County NY to the eastern edge of West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm not sure I buy the Euro in this setup, I'm leaning RGEM and NAM thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Warmest KNYC hour 30 850s - 2 BL 35 700`s -1 .5 falls hour 36 850s - 3 BL 34 700`s -4 .4 falls Its colder aloft than its 0z as the high res` have warmed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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