IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Slightly off topic but the 12z PGFS brings a weak inverted trough through on Thursday with some mood flakes for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 When the Euro is nearly double? Then yes, we toss. where is the Euro double? QPF was around 1 inch on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's really true. We aren't in October anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 here is the SKEW-T for JFK at 21Z tomorrow - it is the only time any layer (aside from the surface) is above zero here is hr 30 and here is hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The PGFS is 1.25"+ for NYC while the OP GFS is barely 0.75"+. PGFS agrees with model concencus. OP GFS toss, enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just because it says 0.786" as snow doesn't mean that it's accumulating. You're going to need some insane rates in order to combat temps in the mid-30's during the middle of the day in Queens on November 26th. And some of that is backend stuff which usually doesn't work out. NE Queens is similar to the Bronx and Upper Manhattan but with much more greenery, parks, hills and trees. NW, Central and Southern Queens are urban jungles and will have a tough time accumulating, unless the rates are high. Same goes for all of Brooklyn and Manhattan. Marginal surface temps will make it very hard for snow to accumulate in the NYC boroughs. The only thing that can save the NYC boroughs and parts of LI would be a deform type heavy band towards the back side. While rare, they can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Guys we will get snow in NYC tossing the Nam aside, we may be all snow. You wont be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You definitely toss the GFS QPF in this event, a big reason because the Euro has been very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As others have said I95 could be close to the dividing line, at least between accumulating snow and non accumulating snow. I've seen snow falling in the route 1 corridor unable to stick during the day unless its very heavy if temps are above freezing. But away from the heat island in the burbs it will pile up faster Oh yes, I know that line all too well and experienced it quite often. I've seen an inch of snow fall in Metuchen and nada near Woodbridge. I-95 really is the battle zone location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 where is the Euro double? QPF was around 1 inch on the euro The Euro was over an inch for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NE Queens is similar to the Bronx and Upper Manhattan but with much more greenery, parks, hills and trees. NW, Central and Southern Queens are urban jungles and will have a tough time accumulating, unless the rates are high. Same goes for all of Brooklyn and Manhattan. Marginal surface temps will make it very hard for snow to accumulate in the NYC boroughs. The only thing that can save the NYC boroughs and parts of LI would be a deform type heavy band towards the back side. While rare, they can happen. The problem is that 850mb temps are in the 0C to -2C range. That's terrible for snow growth. Add the warm punch at 700mb and you're looking at 2:1 ratios. Such a wet snow falling with the surface above freezing might as well be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Same issue in W. Monmouth. Totally different world than E. Monmouth. Rossi It's amazing what a few miles being inland can do. It's quite cool also to drive to the west from the east when these kind of storms occur. Seeing the precip/landscape change in only say 4-10 miles is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Correct me if I am wrong... but at this range I am thinking in order of models that are typically most reliable: Euro, NAM, RGEM, UKIE, GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Guys we will get snow in NYC tossing the Nam aside, we may be all snow. It's not going to be all snow in the City. Sorry, not happening. We've seen this play out way too many times. Hopefully the Euro and other models later tick colder at the mid levels. It's looking like there might be a nasty sleet zone around the city and maybe even western LI. The boundary layer will be too unfavorable for more than a rain/sleet mix from Islip east. Any easterly wind component also kills coastal NJ's chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The problem is that 850mb temps are in the 0C to -2C range. That's terrible for snow growth. Add the warm punch at 700mb and you're looking at 2:1 ratios. Such a wet snow falling with the surface above freezing might as well be rain. Sleet is a 3:1 ratio, so it's hard to get it below that unless it's just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What's the average snowfall for NYC in November? The fact we are talking about this interesting snow threat this early is already a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Correct me if I am wrong... but at this range I am thinking in order of models that are typically most reliable: Euro, NAM, RGEM, UKIE, GFS? Euro, RGEM, NAM, GFS, UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's really true. We aren't in October anymore. im agreeing, once the heavy stuff starts coming down it will stick...btwI see accums patterns similar to late oct 2011 noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sleet is a 3:1 ratio, so it's hard to get it below that unless it's just rain. Well I think the point is, it's going to be putrid. Take your 0.783" and give me 4:1 and you've got 3", and I think that's at least double of what would actually accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Correct me if I am wrong... but at this range I am thinking in order of models that are typically most reliable: Euro, NAM, RGEM, UKIE, GFS? RGEM is more reliable than the NAM by a considerable margin. As the day progresses the RGEM will become the go to model until the HRRR and RAP get into their wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 im agreeing, once the heavy stuff starts coming down it will stick...btwI see accums patterns similar to late oct 2011 noreaster very similar path and will be very sharp cutoff between 6 inches and nothing, city will be borderline again, probably 3 heavy inches late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The problem is that 850mb temps are in the 0C to -2C range. That's terrible for snow growth. Add the warm punch at 700mb and you're looking at 2:1 ratios. Such a wet snow falling with the surface above freezing might as well be rain. NE queens can also taint from the sound this time of year, we have seen big differences between whitestone and bayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I will be happy if I get an inch. This storm is going to have a lot of busts ( Good and bad ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I will be happy if I get an inch. This storm is going to have a lot of busts ( Good and bad ) Same here, any November snow is a bonus. Hopefully an appetizer for what's coming. Too bad this one has such a marginal airmass to work with-if we had this storm with the cold airmass last week it would be easily heavy snow everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Same here, any November snow is a bonus. Hopefully an appetizer for what's coming. Too bad this one has such a marginal airmass to work with-if we had this storm with the cold airmass last week it would be easily heavy snow everywhere. The life of living on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meanwhile, NYC is at 55/26 right now. I want to see low Dewpoints overnight as a little evaporational cooling can't hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 very similar path and will be very sharp cutoff between 6 inches and nothing, city will be borderline again, probably 3 heavy inches late afternoon I think there might be some wide variations in totals across the city and maybe even northern Nassau. JFK I could see walking away with a slushy 1-2" and Yonkers with 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meanwhile, NYC is at 55/26 right now. I want to see low Dewpoints overnight as a little evaporational cooling can't hurt us. Hopefully those dewpoints keep going down, we'll need every bit of evap cooling we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hopefully those dewpoints keep going down, we'll need every bit of evap cooling we can get. Not having any sun out right now might help also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think there might be some wide variations in totals across the city and maybe even northern Nassau. JFK I could see walking away with a slushy 1-2" and Yonkers with 6". Should be a noticble difference between my parents home in howard beach and my new place in white plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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