MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Soundings for the coast on the GFS ( NYC ) has it a wet snow bomb with temps in the low to mid 30s. 700 mb temp looks alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 QPF is still way too dry, I wouldn't give it much weight QPF wise. Track wise, it's pretty much in agreement now with the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Being a 10-15 minute drive form JFK wont help in this storm.Going to be an interesting drive back home tomorrow, going from woodmere to Bensonhurst in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As I mentioned snow to sleet on Nam. The rain makes no sence as the warm nose is strictly at 700 mb... it's quite shallow meaning sleet usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Soundings for the coast on the GFS ( NYC ) has it a wet snow bomb with temps in the low to mid 30s. 700 mb temp looks alright. I think where you are in Brooklyn, you are gonna be disappointed. Expect less, hope for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 its not 1 run .. the RGEM which does NOT have a WARM BIAS shows the same thing the Upper air pattern is NOT favorable for NYC snow event event there is a reason why CLIMO snow in richland / westchester / sw CT ne NJ does better with snow. This event is one one of those times seanick, on 25 Nov 2014 - 09:33 AM, said: Why is everyone jumping on one run of the NAM? Hey DT - happy you are posting - but I think you meant Rockland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Depending on traffic a 10-15 minute drive could be the short term lot. lol. quite true. Kew Gardens, where Im, is a highly funky location since it alternatly fits climo profiles of cpk lga and jfk depending on nature of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Congrats NW folks enjoy this treat. I'll be enjoying my 35F and rain oh joy. Oh well most of this will melt by Sunday anyway and we all torch until real winter begins mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think where you are in Brooklyn, you are gonna be disappointed. Expect less, hope for more. That's how I feel with every storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 lol. quite true. Kew Gardens, where Im, is a highly funky location since it alternatly fits climo profiles of cpk lga and jfk depending on nature of storm Yup, same with Forest Hills. I wouldn't expect to be totally skunked from this, but not as good as LGA or NYC, and not as bad as JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just because it says 0.786" as snow doesn't mean that it's accumulating. You're going to need some insane rates in order to combat temps in the mid-30's during the middle of the day in Queens on November 26th. And some of that is backend stuff which usually doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Congrats NW folks enjoy this treat. I'll be enjoying my 35F and rain oh joy. Oh well most of this will melt by Sunday anyway and we all torch until real winter begins mid December. Are you throwing in the towel before an event even started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just because it says 0.786" as snow doesn't mean that it's accumulating. You're going to need some insane rates in order to combat temps in the mid-30's during the middle of the day in Queens on November 26th. The sun angle is the same as in mid January now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Way too warm for Middlesex, Monmouth area. 925mb is above freezing for the duration. All of middlesex? I've seen these kind of storms before. Sleet/rain in eastern middlesex county and more snow for western middlesex, near somerset county and western union counties. This could be that kind of storm that sees a big difference between Scotch plains/Plainfield and Woodbridge township. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks wrong to me... 700 mb temps on Nam pass most of the city the warm nose 0c+. It would sleet given temps below that are cold. Not rain. Looks to be snow - sleet on Nam. here is the 40km NAM soundings for JFK http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Kjfk.txt The thing is, if the warming happens ABOVE 700MB, unless those layers are saturated it wont matter because the precip will be made BELOW that level. Snow is usually produced at 700MB...interesting situation, I dont believe I remember a sounding where the warming was above 700MB and the rest of the column was below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The sun angle is the same as in mid January now... Nothing to do with sun angle and everything to do with warm temps both at the surface and in the mid-levels. Temps are poor at best in the snow growth region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yes, but snow growth is going to be absolutely putrid with those 700 mb temps, not to mention there may be a warmer layer somewhere around 700. yes, ideally you want -7C to -13C at 700MB...at -0.1 you wont really have flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Congrats NW folks enjoy this treat. I'll be enjoying my 35F and rain oh joy. Oh well most of this will melt by Sunday anyway and we all torch until real winter begins mid December. Sunday? In places that get 2" or less It'll be gone by Thursday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All of middlesex? I've seen these kind of storms before. Sleet/rain in eastern middlesex county and more snow for western middlesex, near somerset county and western union counties. This could be that kind of storm that sees a big difference between Scotch plains/Plainfield and Woodbridge township. The further inland you are the better off you will be. The NJ turnpike looks to be the dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 QPF is still way too dry, I wouldn't give it much weight QPF wise. Track wise, it's pretty much in agreement now with the rest of the guidance. really..the GFS looks reasonable. Are we required to take the coldest & snowiest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sunday? In places that get 2" or less It'll be gone by Thursday afternoon Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All of middlesex? I've seen these kind of storms before. Sleet/rain in eastern middlesex county and more snow for western middlesex, near somerset county and western union counties. This could be that kind of storm that sees a big difference between Scotch plains/Plainfield and Woodbridge township. As others have said I95 could be close to the dividing line, at least between accumulating snow and non accumulating snow. I've seen snow falling in the route 1 corridor unable to stick during the day unless its very heavy if temps are above freezing. But away from the heat island in the burbs it will pile up faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Soundings for the coast on the GFS ( NYC ) has it a wet snow bomb with temps in the low to mid 30s. 700 mb temp looks alright. dont know about that. it maybe splats hitting the windshields based on the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The soundings on the GFS look good for NYC west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just because it says 0.786" as snow doesn't mean that it's accumulating. You're going to need some insane rates in order to combat temps in the mid-30's during the middle of the day in Queens on November 26th. And some of that is backend stuff which usually doesn't work out. throw in 700mb temps at or just below 0C and it equals a very low ratio crusty snow fall that will have a very hard time accumulating (in and around [to the east of] the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 dont know about that. it maybe splats hitting the windshields based on the soundings Dangerously close just east of the City. The City is also close but not as close as to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 really..the GFS looks reasonable. Are we required to take the coldest & snowiest model When the Euro is nearly double? Then yes, we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The sun angle is the same as in mid January now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All of middlesex? I've seen these kind of storms before. Sleet/rain in eastern middlesex county and more snow for western middlesex, near somerset county and western union counties. This could be that kind of storm that sees a big difference between Scotch plains/Plainfield and Woodbridge township. Same issue in W. Monmouth. Totally different world than E. Monmouth. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Guys we will get snow in NYC tossing the Nam aside, we may be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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