UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SURE it does.... you are correct. the rgem shows the same thing and yes it was great last winter So if I was correct why would you be making a sarcastic attempt to troll instead of just saying I'm correct? Are you 13 lol... This thread is rediculas and hostile, just cause u have a red tag doesn't mean u treat people like crap pal... Enjoy the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 that is NOT what the nam is showing at at all for NYC.... delusional Two questions for you...first the serious one....you think the city actually has more than 3 inches of snow on the ground by the time it winds down from the snow (when it's all snow) towards the end ? And just for kicks.....been meaning to ask.....where can I purchase the keyboard that multiplies the effectiveness of the space button intermittently ? As always, enjoy your forecasts man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nam snowfall instantweathermaps goes from 12 to 4 in like 5 miles. Almost a 10/30/11 repeat. Advisory along 95, Warning 10 miles northwest, nothing 10 miles southeast looks like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 999mb just inside the BM or right over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM and NAM both put NYC/I-95 in N/C Jersey on the line...all east no more than 2", all west a lot more... Although almost all start as mix/rain, the people who will be mostly snow or rain should know by no later than 10am or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM is great just ( I mean just ) to the west of NYC. Coastal areas of NYC see rain/mix with eastern LI all rain but wow, this is close. A little colder and NYC will see mostly snow. Close call for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The weather will do extactly as the model says. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The flip to snow starts before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Philly put warnings out for Morris/Hunterdon/Sussex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As the backside energy dives in the low redevelops. 998mb inside the benchmark. Light activity lingering well into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 its not 1 run .. the RGEM which does NOT have a WARM BIAS shows the same thing the Upper air pattern is NOT favorable for NYC snow event event there is a reason why CLIMO snow in richland / westchester / sw CT ne NJ does better with snow. This event is one one of those times seanick, on 25 Nov 2014 - 09:33 AM, said: Why is everyone jumping on one run of the NAM? Yep onshore winds with 52 degree water temps does not equate to snow here on the Island or anywhere close to the coast..3 weeks later a different story..1989 Thanksgiving storm had a cold air mass in place with NNE winds..totally different setuu..Thanksgiving storm 1971..close to the benchmark..rain in the city and coast..heavy snow inland..I have been alive 56 years and I can count on one hand significant snows here in November...If I see a slushy inch..fine..that's typical for November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12Z GFS is slightly more amped up, big low near Wilmington NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I feel there's gonna be a huge bust somewhere. These very borderline storms often do. Well its impossible not to when you're going from 2 to 10" over a 20-30 mile distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 its not 1 run .. the RGEM which does NOT have a WARM BIAS shows the same thing the Upper air pattern is NOT favorable for NYC snow event event there is a reason why CLIMO snow in richland / westchester / sw CT ne NJ does better with snow. This event is one one of those times seanick, on 25 Nov 2014 - 09:33 AM, said: Why is everyone jumping on one run of the NAM? Gfs has a cold enough profile for all snow in nyc, and btw why did you ban me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 1008mb right over OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just like the NAM, a hair less robust. 75 miles east of Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The GFS is a lot better for the city, 700mb freezing line hangs right around JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Way too warm for Middlesex, Monmouth area. 925mb is above freezing for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Be nice if tropicaltidbit was working so we can access their models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The City looks to be fine but for my area, it looks like a lot of rain or sleet which will keep the accumulations down. looking these soundings there is no layer above 0C throughout the column (except the surface)....the surface is pretty warm though. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 From Mt Holly A fully updated snow total map by 3pm with increased amounts a bit around NW I95 corridor. #holidaysnowphl #njwx #pawx #mdwx #dewx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 looking these soundings there is no layer above 0C throughout the column (except the surface)....the surface is pretty warm though. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Being a 10-15 minute drive form JFK wont help in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 looking these soundings there is no layer above 0C throughout the column (except the surface)....the surface is pretty warm though. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Looks wrong to me... 700 mb temps on Nam pass most of the city the warm nose 0c+. It would sleet given temps below that are cold. Not rain. Looks to be snow - sleet on Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 looking these soundings there is no layer above 0C throughout the column (except the surface)....the surface is pretty warm though. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Yes, but snow growth is going to be absolutely putrid with those 700 mb temps, not to mention there may be a warmer layer somewhere around 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 looking these soundings there is no layer above 0C throughout the column (except the surface)....the surface is pretty warm though. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Your problems in the city are around this layer 700mb Temp ©: 3.3 1.0 -1.8 -6.0 -4.2 -0.9 -5.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yes, but snow growth is going to be absolutely putrid with those 700 mb temps, not to mention there may be a warmer layer somewhere around 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yes, but snow growth is going to be absolutely putrid with those 700 mb temps, not to mention there may be a warmer layer somewhere around 700. 700mb temps are 3 degrees colder on the NAM at HPN then JFK, going to be a big time gradient right across the heart of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Being a 10-15 minute drive form JFK wont help in this storm. Depending on traffic a 10-15 minute drive could be the short term lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.