IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Last nights run was juiced to why is everyone saying 1 run The warming at 700mb on the 06z run didn't really arrive until things were starting to wind down. This is the first run that's really agressive with the mid-level warmth. QPF wise, it's on the top end of the spectrum but not that crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Imagine if the models are overdoing the warmth? This can turn out bad it the models are. There is a reason why you can count the number of white Thanksgivings you have witnessed in Brooklyn in your lifetime on 1 finger at most. Your average high is still up around 50 while you live next to a still warm ocean. Getting a snowstorm there this time of year is akin to winning a car in a raffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sounding for NYC isn't that bad on the Nam. I don't know what the fuss is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Soundings for Central Park are almost all snow but the surface temps are all above freezing so it's gonna be a really tough call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here was the 06z RGEM snow Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sounding for NYC isn't that bad on the Nam. I don't know what the fuss is all about. Look at Earthlights post about 650-700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Look at Earthlights post about 650-700mb. It's close for NYC but not bad. It's east of there where it gets dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Question: how dependable is the NAM in terms of temp profiles? Is it more reliable than the GFS or the Euro for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's close for NYC but not bad. It's east of there where it gets dicey. Snow in da Bronx and Harlem, rain from Mid-Town South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Snow in da Bronx and Harlem, rain from Mid-Town South and East. Seen that many times in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If we can keep the 700mb low weaker, that might halt some of the warming and prevent a changeover to sleet. But the thermal profiles at the surface will be another hill to climb, and we can see the RGEM already tamping down snow that falls near the coast on the 6z run after it was a lot snowier at 0z. After getting excited somewhat last night, it might be sinking back to reality. West of the city of course, everything looks on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Agree Thanks for adding to the discussion. Just because the model isn't showing your ideal scenario doesnt mean you discount it. If the NAM was useless I dont think NCEP would keep running it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's close for NYC but not bad. It's east of there where it gets dicey.Going by the NAM at least, it seems there will be a good amount of mixing SE of 287, a lot east of the Garden state parkway, and a ton east of the turnpike.....cutoff between significant snow accumulations and an inch or two I would guess would be the parkway in NNJ (4") and 287 (6"+)....interesting that the NAM appears to have a band of heavier snow over the area as it winds down though.....that should be all snow, although it's tough to get those bands to work out at the end of a storm...they usually end up in the lower Hudson valley lifting NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z 12k NAM QPF for those that wanted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If we can keep the 700mb low weaker, that might halt some of the warming and prevent a changeover to sleet. But the thermal profiles at the surface will be another hill to climb, and we can see the RGEM already tamping down snow that falls near the coast on the 6z run after it was a lot snowier at 0z. After getting excited somewhat last night, it might be sinking back to reality. West of the city of course, everything looks on track. The 700mb low closing off southeast of us is the key for getting the heavier rates inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks for adding to the discussion. Just because the model isn't showing your ideal scenario doesnt mean you discount it. If the NAM was useless I dont think NCEP would keep running it. Instead of putting all of your eggs into the Nam, lets see what the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Everyone discounts the Nam Well how about this the rgem is nearly an identical run as the nam and that was last years best short term model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Monmouth County is all rain, so is most of Middlesex and Suffolk, maybe a few mangled flakes. Well that stinks I was hoping for at least an inch. I guess it'll be nothing but a cold rain on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If we can keep the 700mb low weaker, that might halt some of the warming and prevent a changeover to sleet. But the thermal profiles at the surface will be another hill to climb, and we can see the RGEM already tamping down snow that falls near the coast on the 6z run after it was a lot snowier at 0z. After getting excited somewhat last night, it might be sinking back to reality. West of the city of course, everything looks on track. If you look at all the last few runs of MOS/MET guidance, it has been warming much of the tristate area by 2-4 degrees at the surface during the entirety of the event. People who were expecting 33 and snow are now going to be looking at 35 and ?? Not sure how much drier air is left to advect to the coastal plain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BINGO if there's one thing the NAM is good for it's thermal profiles, definitely not a good sign 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 WHAT? you are bringing in facts now ? Well how about this the rgem is nearly an identical run as the nam and that was last years best short term model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 that is NOT what the nam is showing at at all for NYC.... delusional Even if 50% QPF is sleet/mix near NYC still a solid warning level snowstorm...great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 12z NAM Bufkit has LGA and JFK flip to sleet around 19z Wed. EWR remains snow. This is thin warming layer around 700mb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM precip type maps rolling out now, one of my fav models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 WHAT? you are bringing in facts now ? This makes no sense, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 its not 1 run ..the RGEM which does NOT have a WARM BIAS shows the same thing the Upper air pattern is NOT favorable for NYC snow event event there is a reason why CLIMO snow in richland / westchester / sw CT ne NJ does better with snow.This event is one one of those timesseanick, on 25 Nov 2014 - 09:33 AM, said: Why is everyone jumping on one run of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Instead of putting all of your eggs into the Nam, lets see what the other models show. I didn't say I'm putting all my stock into the NAM, but it is a model run you should factor into your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 its not 1 run .. the RGEM which does NOT have a WARM BIAS shows the same thing the Upper air pattern is NOT favorable for NYC snow event event there is a reason why CLIMO snow in richland / westchester / sw CT ne NJ does better with snow. This event is one one of those times seanick, on 25 Nov 2014 - 09:33 AM, said: Why is everyone jumping on one run of the NAM? very much agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SURE it does.... you are correct. the rgem shows the same thing and yes it was great last winter This makes no sense, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's close for NYC but not bad. It's east of there where it gets dicey. its not good, when it is snow temps are almost 36 than u flip to sleet. according to the nam u see hardly any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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