MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Storm Vista has 1-2" for Western Nassau County and the city - Mostly sleet 2-4" along the NJ turnpike 4-6" for northeast NJ and then south of 80 6-8" for Morris County, Western Passaic and Sussex Counties 8-10" for the stripe that runs from Vernon to Warwick. Imagine if the models are overdoing the warmth? This can turn out bad it the models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Storm Vista has 1-2" for Western Nassau County and the city - Mostly sleet 2-4" along the NJ turnpike 4-6" for northeast NJ and then south of 80 6-8" for Morris County, Western Passaic and Sussex Counties 8-10" for the stripe that runs from Vernon to Warwick. sounds pretty good, Upton is way way way too high for the city. The first call map by them was much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sneaky 700 mb warm layer showing up on Nam tomorrow afternoon in the soundings. The culprit seems to be an easterly jet at that level. Date: 33 hour Eta valid 21Z WED 26 NOV 14Station: 40.70,-73.74Latitude: 40.70Longitude: -73.74-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1009 10 1.2 0.5 95 0.7 0.8 359 21 273.6 274.3 273.6 284.2 3.91 1 1000 80 1.1 1 26 274.3 2 950 490 -1.9 -2.4 97 0.5 -2.1 10 41 275.2 275.8 273.7 284.5 3.37 3 900 920 -1.4 -1.7 97 0.4 -1.5 33 43 280.1 280.7 276.9 290.5 3.73 4 850 1376 -1.9 -2.3 98 0.3 -2.1 42 38 284.1 284.8 279.0 294.9 3.81 5 800 1856 -4.0 -4.2 98 0.3 -4.1 64 34 286.9 287.5 280.0 297.0 3.49 6 750 2366 -2.2 -2.5 98 0.2 -2.4 117 29 294.1 294.9 284.0 306.6 4.25 7 700 2919 1.2 1.1 99 0.2 1.1 171 54 303.8 304.9 289.3 321.7 5.91 The 700mb low closes off over DE and then tracks inland up 95, what did you expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Still think many are underestimating the bl warmth models way too cold this morning. I think 4 to 8 for NYC is a pretty crazy call to make your basically making the call of an unprecedented historic storm bump....NAM agrees upton is way off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This would have been fine for the coast if the mid-level centers had been further East. 700mb is an absolute torch by early afternoon. Ping Ping Ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Storm Vista has 1-2" for Western Nassau County and the city - Mostly sleet 2-4" along the NJ turnpike 4-6" for northeast NJ and then south of 80 6-8" for Morris County, Western Passaic and Sussex Counties 8-10" for the stripe that runs from Vernon to Warwick. I'm thinking those maps are counting all frozen as snow like the wxbell ones, right? It seems that during the height of the storm we are sleet at best (in NE NJ for example)....I'd think it would equate to more of a 1-3" range for NE NJ for just snow. 700mb just sneaks in like last run and ruins the entire party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This would have been fine for the coast if the mid-level centers had been further East. 700mb is an absolute torch by early afternoon. Ping Ping Ping. how do the soundings look for hpn, im expecting 2-4 in the 287 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The VV are insane, off the charts. You would likely have some sort of deformation banding in this setup with insane rates wherever they set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 bump....NAM agrees upton is way off base. Lol yesterday you said no one south of 84 sees snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 700mb low closes off over DE and then tracks inland up 95, what did you expect? Par for the course with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm thinking those maps are counting all frozen as snow like the wxbell ones, right? It seems that during the height of the storm we are sleet at best (in NE NJ for example)....I'd think it would equate to more of a 1-3" range for NE NJ for just snow. 700mb just sneaks in like last run and ruins the entire party StormVista doesn't suffer from the same problems as WxBell. It's typically much more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 bump....NAM agrees upton is way off base. We all know This would have been fine for the coast if the mid-level centers had been further East. 700mb is an absolute torch by early afternoon. Ping Ping Ping. Ping fest I love Miller A's because they can hold surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even if 50% QPF is sleet/mix near NYC still a solid warning level snowstorm...great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The VV are insane, off the charts. You would likely have some sort of deformation banding in this setup with insane rates wherever they set up. And subsidence on either side of that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even if 50% QPF is sleet/mix near NYC still a solid warning level snowstorm...great run. Like I said, if the Nam is overdoing the warming, watch out. I would feel more comfortable if I lived just to the west of NYC instead in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lol yesterday you said no one south of 84 sees snow huh? I said best snows are 84 and north nothing about no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Without looking at the soundings, my guess is that 90% of what falls southeast of the NJ TPK is taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Without looking at the soundings, my guess is that 90% of what falls southeast of the NJ TPK is taint. You are correct. Precip maps show mixing in NYC and snow just to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 how do the soundings look for hpn, im expecting 2-4 in the 287 area. 4-8" for northern Westchester County, espeically once you get into the hills north of White Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You are correct. Precip maps show mixing in NYC and snow just to the west Why is everyone jumping on one run of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Without looking at the soundings, my guess is that 90% of what falls southeast of the NJ TPK is taint. Yes it is, the warm layer between 650 and 700mb gets to NYC before stopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Why is everyone jumping on one run of the NAM? I have no clue. The warming might be legit or it might not. Onto the RGEM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this thread is driving me crazy. i hate that the nam is first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 huh? I said best snows are 84 and north nothing about no snow. Uhhh no noreaster, you didnt. You said "real snow" north of 84. Why not just come back under your old name? Its obvious the mods dont care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I have no clue. The warming might be legit or it might not. Onto the RGEM and GFS. The 06z RGEM sort of headed in that direction, but the off hour RGEM runs tend to be funky, if the 12Z shows what the NAM does I'll buy it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's important to remember that this is only one run, and it's the NAM, known for making wild run to run swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this thread is driving me crazy. i hate that the nam is first I do too. The less reliable models come out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's important to remember that this is only one run, and it's the NAM, known for making wild run to run swings. Last nights run was juiced to why is everyone saying 1 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 if there's one thing the NAM is good for it's thermal profiles, definitely not a good sign 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 if there's one thing the NAM is good for nothing. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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