Mikehobbyst Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 From the top of the Empire State Building, the snowmen being built "North and West" of NYC might be seen tomorrow. I expect a slushy 1/2 to 1 inch on grass and car tops in NYC proper, and nothing east of the Clearview EXPY. 15 miles west and north of NYC will start the 4" plus amounts. I think the 3-4 hour 35-40 mph wind gusts will be more interesting over Suffolk Cty. Swaying traffic lights on the wire spans advisory for Suffolk. NYC can never do the swaying lights as well, with its standardized double guy wire traffic mast arm fixtures everywhere. This is basically NYC signal per pic below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The bust potential at least is for less snow and more mixed or rain and not the other way given such a warm antecedent airmass and lack of a real polar high or upsteam cold. Upton most likely knows about this. Temp at 700mb doesn't look bad at all. Rates can overcome the boundary layer. I think many people are getting too worried about this for no reason. If someone has to worry, it should be my area and to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Its funny how most pro mets who were going low are now going much higher like Steve D and DT and some who were higher are backing off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Its funny how most pro mets who were going low are now going much higher like Steve D and DT and some who were higher are backing offSplit the difference and call it a forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ..for the few of us out here on E LI..still expecting all rain.. There are too many things going against the bulk of L.I.seeing any appreciable snow out of this. The warm tongue aloft combined with no antecedent cold air at the surface and no real arctic air to follow, not to mention the warm late Nov. SST's is just too much to overcome with dynamic cooling I would look for plain rain until about sunset with some wet flakes mixing in for a few hours, then MAYBE a period of all snow to slush things up a bit before it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Its funny how most pro mets who were going low are now going much higher like Steve D and DT and some who were higher are backing off Steve has 3-6 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The BL warmed up also on the soundings from yesterday. The 60 degree readings this morning were not forecast yesterday. Check out the big NAM temperature miss from 12z yesterday. CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 61 40 45 VRB5 f24.gif been saying this all morning, models are busting huge too warm, this starts off as rain in NYC / Long Island / and even close areas to the NW with temps in the low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There are too many things going against the bulk of L.I.seeing any appreciable snow out of this. The warm tongue aloft combined with no antecedent cold air at the surface and no real arctic air to follow, not to mention the warm late Nov. SST's is just too much to overcome with dynamic cooling I would look for plain rain until about sunset with some wet flakes mixing in for a few hours, then MAYBE a period of all snow to slush things up a bit before it endsIMO thats a better forecast, the airmass isnt exactly ideal and depending on heavy rates is playing with fire 1" or less for me would be an accomplishment with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Its funny how most pro mets who were going low are now going much higher like Steve D and DT and some who were higher are backing off Lol I've noticed that. Funny that once the models start showing this more as a N and W snow storm as they pick up new info, the ones saying that it would be mainly a N and W snowstorm are saying more snow to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think many people are having low expectations for this storm. Yes it's a warm airmass but seeing the Euro cool off with the 700mb temp is a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The TV mets should at least mention about the heavy snow possibility since no one knows who the hell is Upton is except for the weather weenies. If NYC does get over 5 inches, a lot of people will get caught offguard since the media mets are always conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NYC currently clocking in with a 33 degree dew point, as long as temperatures fall into the upper 30's tonight the fact that temperatures are busting warm right now will be of very little consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The BL warmed up also on the soundings from yesterday. The 60 degree readings this morning were not forecast yesterday. Check out the big NAM temperature miss from 12z yesterday. CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 61 40 45 VRB5 f24.gif The Euro has always been a few hours slower . Here is yesterdays 12z for the same time period. Current temps Brooklyn 56 Colts Neck 55 . Think the Euro is close at every other station . 59 at the park now- winds out of the NW . Think the difference is marginal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think many people are having low expectations for this storm. Yes it's a warm airmass but seeing the Euro cool off with the 700mb temp is a great sign. you may be in good shape for several inches but the people with low expectations are to your east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 you may be in good shape for several inches but the people with low expectations are to your east Even my area has to worry about mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think many people are having low expectations for this storm. Yes it's a warm airmass but seeing the Euro cool off with the 700mb temp is a great sign. I still think we get 2-3" or so out of this right to the city, however it really seems that more is unlikely. The models were clearly cooler yesterday and are picking up on some additional warmer air now closer to the event. I'd be surprised if the euro doesn't show this as well, along with the 12z GFS and RGEM. It's November and although climatology doesn't always "win", it ends up usually being part of the final outcome even if it wasn't part of the model's initial thoughts. This storm is definitely not a dud, but to me it has all the makings of a "N and W quick hitting thump snowstorm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even my area has to worry about mixing. Tony I wouldn't expect more than 1-2 for your area, expect more sleet than forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 9z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Tony I wouldn't expect more than 1-2 for your area, expect more sleet than forecasted Reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even my area has to worry about mixing. i think you will be all snow for a while during the heavier rates but any lessening in intensity and you will mix. So you could go back and forth. We've all seen this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 9z SREF has -4 700mb temps for NYC. Great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think the warm pavement temps will hurt some of the accumulations tomorrow around the 95 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It will, but i dont think any of us are expecting much on the roads. This is more of a grass accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think the warm pavement temps will hurt some of the accumulations tomorrow around the 95 area All you need to overcome a warm payment is S+ for about 20 minutes. Moderate snow won't do it,though with these temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 06z NAM has tons of mixing issues for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All you need to overcome a warm payment is S+ for about 20 minutes. Moderate snow won't do it,though with these temps Just saw your location! I work at the lindenhurst king kullen off wellwood ave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Steve has 3-6 for NYC Steve upped the totals after he found out through NWS that the polar disturbance is stronger then models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 06z NAM has tons of mixing issues for the coast 002.png 003.png 004.png 005.png 006.png 007.png Thats much warmer or more mix than the past 8 runs....a trend is setting up folks and its for more warmth and mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 TWC has named this upcoming storm Winter Storm Cato Thats much warmer or more mix than the past 8 runs....a trend is setting up folks and its for more warmth and mixing. What trend? The Nam? Come on man. Euro was southeast with the warming and better for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 TWC has named this upcoming storm Winter Storm Cato What trend? The Nam? Come on man. Euro was southeast with the warming and better for the area. past nam runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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