LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Amazing if anyone caught bill Evans explanation of a watch vs warning. According to him a warning means more snow then a watch. (Different nws offices really) Good to see the watch extend east. Upton is not going to mess around right now. The country's biggest city in the crosshairs of a big storm on the busiest travel day of the year is a big deal. So I have to imagine their confidence level is high. I like my SS 3" slush. Though the reality is really anywhere that sets up the best banding is going to throw people for good solid 6 plus. Where that is we still have no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Amazing if anyone caught bill Evans explanation of a watch vs warning. According to him a warning means more snow then a watch. (Different nws offices really) Good to see the watch extend east. Upton is not going to mess around right now. The country's biggest city in the crosshairs of a big storm on the busiest travel day of the year is a big deal. So I have to imagine their confidence level is high. I like my SS 3" slush. Though the reality is really anywhere that sets up the best banding is going to throw people for good solid 6 plus. Where that is we still have no clue I caught it. And notice, he also said, ehhh..4-8 in the watch area even though the map was 3-6..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I caught it. And notice, he also said, ehhh..4-8 in the watch area even though the map was 3-6..lolI I normally try to stay out of this stuff but it's so wrong. He keeps saying a warning means more then a watch and in this case it has to do with nws Albany updating to a warning earlier then upton. He's doing it over and over just plain wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Still think many are underestimating the bl warmth models way too cold this morning. I think 4 to 8 for NYC is a pretty crazy call to make your basically making the call of an unprecedented historic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I remember that storm very vividly. I walked 3 miles during the height of it because I was a dumb high school kid. It was like walking on sand. As far as this event goes, what's the record snowfall at knyc on 11/26? Or has someone posted that info already? 5.0", 1898. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 6z GFS has come in wetter compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Still think many are underestimating the bl warmth models way too cold this morning. I think 4 to 8 for NYC is a pretty crazy call to make your basically making the call of an unprecedented historic stormYeah upton pretty much alone with those totals...right across the river from me, mt holly has just 1-2 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah upton pretty much alone with those totals...right across the river from me, mt holly has just 1-2 in.1 to 2 is a much better call expect Upton to adjust back down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Finally the nam/gfs/euro virtually are identical in terms of upper air thermal profile with the warm punch just to the south/east of queens, southern Brooklyn, state island southeast shoreline, Monmouth county...with all just to the west below 32... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 1 to 2 is a much better call expect Upton to adjust back down All models have 0.75 - 1.5" qpf with upper air temps below 32 from NYC n/w...boundary is only issue at onset and for first couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 November 19th 1955...I was six years old...It was daylight as I remember it snowing... Thank you, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All models have 0.75 - 1.5" qpf with upper air temps below 32 from NYC n/w...boundary is only issue at onset and for first couple hoursAll models are busting too warm right now I think at least half the storm will be wasted on rain or non accumulating snow for NYC and adjacent areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well , I always root for snow, however this time I hate to see so many peoples travel plans ruined ..I have a feeling 12z may be warmer as well. Either way fun tracking potential isnt that part of the hobby ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All models are busting too warm right now I think at least half the storm will be wasted on rain or non accumulating snow for NYC and adjacent areas You realize the difference at the surface between KNYC and KSWF on the Euro is 1 F ( 34 vs 33 ) and 1 C at 850 ( Minus 3 vs Minus 2 ). So what`s your call for Newburgh NY ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ..for the few of us out here on E LI..still expecting all rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 definitely trying to head west to my parents for this one. The difference between Hoboken and morris county in these types of 'borderline' set-ups is huge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All models are busting too warm right now I think at least half the storm will be wasted on rain or non accumulating snow for NYC and adjacent areas 1.2" of liquid would still be 6" of snow in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As often occurs in these situations, collaboration between the NYC and Philly NWS offices could be better. No way that Staten Island, to my east and Union County, to my north, can have 2-4" and 4-6", respectively, while adjacent northern Middlesex County has 1-2" for most and 2-4" for the far NW part of the county. It's also rare that Trenton and Philly do better than Edison, when it's not a storm that's suppressed to our south, i.e., when the total precip is about the same, implying that there will be more rain in Edison. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php The discontinuity continues and is even worse this morning. Winter storm watches are up for all counties west of the Delaware River in PA and for Mercer to Somerset to Union to NYC and all counties NW of there in NJ and NY, of course, skipping over my county, Middlesex, in NJ, lol. It’s a bit of a disconnect to have neighboring Mercer/Union/SI to have watches and for Middlesex (at least northern Middlesex - problem is they only have one zone for our county) to not. Just look at the map and it looks funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You realize the difference at the surface between KNYC and KSWF on the Euro is 1 F ( 34 vs 33 ) and 1 C at 850 ( Minus 3 vs Minus 2 ). So what`s your call for Newburgh NY ? 8 to 10 for them I don't believe we go isothermal so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 8 to 10 for them I don't believe we go isothermal so quickly And they will ? Why both on NE wind . No difference aloft . 700 - 850s below 0C 1 F difference at the surface . Looks like Upton caught it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My hunch right now is we may see more PL than we think, the 06Z RGEM shows that there may be a long duration of mixed precip, I'm not sure if this is RASN RAPL or SNPL but I just think the boundary layer is a bit too warm to get big accumulating snows in this stale air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My hunch right now is we may see more PL than we think, the 06Z RGEM shows that there may be a long duration of mixed precip, I'm not sure if this is RASN RAPL or SNPL but I just think the boundary layer is a bit too warm to get big accumulating snows in this stale air mass. Agreed thats why 3"+ for my area is probably unlikely unless i consistently get into 30-35dbz rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My hunch right now is we may see more PL than we think, the 06Z RGEM shows that there may be a long duration of mixed precip, I'm not sure if this is RASN RAPL or SNPL but I just think the boundary layer is a bit too warm to get big accumulating snows in this stale air mass. very much agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My hunch right now is we may see more PL than we think, the 06Z RGEM shows that there may be a long duration of mixed precip, I'm not sure if this is RASN RAPL or SNPL but I just think the boundary layer is a bit too warm to get big accumulating snows in this stale air mass. The way the RGEM is oriented I can places from LGA east the North Shore of Nassau County out to Laurel Hollow pull off 6 . N of N Blvd . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The way the RGEM is oriented I can places from LGA east the North Shore of Nassau County out to Laurel Hollow pull off 6 . N of N Blvd . This is my current guess paul, NYC 4-7", the boroughs 4-6", N. nassua/NW suffolk 4-6", S. Nassua/Suffolk 1-3" (unless models start showing the warm punch not being as pronounce) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All the guidance is picking up on the sleet potential and you can see how LGA trended toward more sleet from 12z. The January 13, 2008 event had the best snow amounts 2 days before the event and trended down right up to the storm as the models underestimated the antecedent warmth. You don't want to see an event with such high bust potential on the busiest travel day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is my current guess paul, NYC 4-7", the boroughs 4-6", N. nassua/NW suffolk 4-6", S. Nassua/Suffolk 1-3" (unless models start showing the warm punch not being as pronounce) My argument was from 3 days ago was there was going to be 3 at the park if the Euro is right there`s 6 there . Anything east of JFK is going to be dicey . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All the guidance is picking up on the sleet potential and you can see how LGA trended toward more sleet from 12z. The January 13, 2008 event had the best snow amounts 2 days before the event and trended down right up to the storm as the models underestimated the antecedent warmth. You don't want to see an event with such high bust potential on the busiest travel day of the year. 12.png 12z.png The bust potential at least is for less snow and more mixed or rain and not the other way given such a warm antecedent airmass and lack of a real polar high or upsteam cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All the guidance is picking up on the sleet potential and you can see how LGA trended toward more sleet from 12z. The January 13, 2008 event had the best snow amounts 2 days before the event and trended down right up to the storm as the models underestimated the antecedent warmth. You don't want to see an event with such high bust potential on the busiest travel day of the year. 12.png 12z.png The sleet though is not the result of antecedent warmth. The changes in precip type are the result of warming aloft. This can easily be all snow on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The sleet though is not the result of antecedent warmth. The changes in precip type are the result of warming aloft. This can easily be all snow on the next run. The BL warmed up also on the soundings from yesterday. The 60 degree readings this morning were not forecast yesterday. Check out the big NAM temperature miss from 12z yesterday. CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 61 40 45 VRB5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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