PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:29 PM, earthlight said: Not sure what he's looking at..the H7 low is right over DC/Baltimore like it is forecast to be 14z RAP ? 700s and 850s never get above 0C at the park HRRR a tick warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:16 PM, BxEngine said: Can someone w access post some of the short term stuff for when the warming moves in aloft? Trying to time it but my phone is wonky, got it wet. 13z for the HRRR is the latest revision that I can see from NOAA's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:29 PM, earthlight said: Not sure what he's looking at..the H7 low is right over DC/Baltimore like it is forecast to beI spy with my little eye a pair of weenie goggles john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Glad I sucked it up and threw in the towel last night. Looks like it's snowing in (north) Baltimore where I went to college and raining in Boston. A very rare occurrence. So dynamics and a little elevation 400' feet there are getting it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:31 PM, REDMK6GLI said: I spy with my little eye a pair of weenie goggles john In this hobby you can see whatever you want to see if you look at the maps long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The RAP did trend colder at 700mb for two runs in a row, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z RGEM printing out 15 to 20 inches of snow for Litchfield, Putnam, & Duchess counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:32 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Glad I sucked it up and threw in the towel last night. Looks like it's snowing in (north) Baltimore where I went to college and raining in Boston. A very rare occurrence. So dynamics and a little elevation 400' feet there are getting it done It's a typical I-95 dividing line storm (maybe a ways west of I-95). It was clear to me since really 12z yesterday that all I'd be getting would at most be a sloppy inch or so on the front or back of the storm. Maybe the end can give us a period of snow/sleet but the rest of it obviously is just going to be a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 2:34 PM, earthlight said: Wait until mid Dec Agreeed. There is mounting evidence from the ensembles that winter comes back after the 10th. The Aleutian low builds along with a return to the -EPO and +PNA. Should be interesting times come the middle of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:31 PM, REDMK6GLI said: I spy with my little eye a pair of weenie goggles john It's a Winterior Storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RGEM is fantastic for the immediate suburbs, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:29 PM, earthlight said: Not sure what he's looking at..the H7 low is right over DC/Baltimore like it is forecast to be 10am to 1pm was always thje time we would see more snow, due frontogenesis..1pm - 4pm is when 700mb warm tongue follows to change many of us, near the coast to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Surface isn't even the issue. Down to 33. All surfaces getting gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:39 PM, earthlight said: RGEM is fantastic for the immediate suburbs, too. WOW that does look great for areas just NW of I-287... its so strange that a lot of times that is the dividing line. Does anybody have a reasoning for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:42 PM, allgame830 said: WOW that does look great for areas just NW of I-287... its so strange that a lot of times that is the dividing line. Does anybody have a reasoning for that?287 produces its own cold source. in all seriousness I've always wondered the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:42 PM, allgame830 said: WOW that does look great for areas just NW of I-287... its so strange that a lot of times that is the dividing line. Does anybody have a reasoning for that? Elevation, distance from the coast, ability to do well with a coastal hugger as well as a more offshore track for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 287 is the fall line where S&E of there has less vegetation and less elevation while N&W is more elevated with more vegetation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:42 PM, allgame830 said: WOW that does look great for areas just NW of I-287... its so strange that a lot of times that is the dividing line. Does anybody have a reasoning for that? Elevation and terrain..it's just far away enough from the coast to avoid marine influence too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:42 PM, allgame830 said: WOW that does look great for areas just NW of I-287... its so strange that a lot of times that is the dividing line. Does anybody have a reasoning for that? Thats not really 287, more like I-95 edit: further north in NY state yes but south it extends almost to the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:46 PM, earthlight said: Elevation and terrain..it's just far away enough from the coast to avoid marine influence too Agreed. The Watchung Mountains certainly don't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 by the way it's not only steved looking at a colder solution but Nick Gregory from Fox I spoke to is looking at a cold or solutionas well. Also there are those flakes falling outside my window in Kew Gardens Queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 3:46 PM, earthlight said: Elevation and terrain..it's just far away enough from the coast to avoid marine influence too Hey earthlight... me being up in Ossining NY... which I am only like 3 min on Croton, how do you think I will fair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Warmest `15z RAP hour every other is colder for KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Classic Perth Amboy Southwest to Trenton NJ snow/rain line - question is where do we go from here any predictions ?Turn on rain snow button on this link http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 NYC and LGA down to 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 ...HEAVY WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO TONIGHT... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...HIGHEST IN ORANGE COUNTY. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR is trending colder each run now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 4:26 PM, earthlight said: HRRR is trending colder each run now At 700mb? Or just in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 On 11/26/2014 at 4:27 PM, TwcMan said: At 700mb? Or just in general? Just in general...assuming in the mid levels too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR gives newark 4-5" now..6" for Watchung Mountains and border of Union/Essex Counties. 8-10" for all of NW NJ and interior Bergen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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