illinois Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Haven't started to many topics but I feel the chances are increasing enough to go ahead and begin monitoring a significant severe weather event around December 3. I would think that this event could have a pretty high ceiling such as November 17, 2013 and December 18, 1957. While those are high end events, they both followed significant cold shots in November. Currently I would target an area south of a line from Columbia, Mo. to indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That takes some courage to start a severe thread this far out at this time of year. Going to look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 That takes some courage to start a severe thread this far out at this time of year. Going to look now. I almost put ballzy in the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The initial post was kinda bold but I think you may be onto something as far as it being a period to watch. One important thing is that it currently doesn't appear that moisture will be gutted prior to any potential event, and there could be a nice reservoir down south just waiting to be tapped by an incoming system. Assuming this to be the case, then the devil would be in the details (trough ejection, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 The initial post was kinda bold but I think you may be onto something as far as it being a period to watch. One important thing is that it currently doesn't appear that moisture will be gutted prior to any potential event, and there could be a nice reservoir down south just waiting to be tapped by an incoming system. Assuming this to be the case, then the devil would be in the details (trough ejection, etc). I agree very bold, not calling for a historic outbreak yet, but like I said I think the ceiling is pretty high based on other events in similar years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pretty good agreement on the large scale trough west/ridge east pattern. Can we get a trough ejection favorable for a severe threat in this region? Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 excited I get this feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Id say for any event so far out keep in the mid range discussion thread until it gets closer (and yes I say this for winter threat threads too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not expecting much locally (except maybe more synoptic high winds). But the biggest detriment to a bigger severe weather event will be the low-level inversion that has locked in due to the abnormal cold we've had... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not expecting much locally (except maybe more synoptic high winds). But the biggest detriment to a bigger severe weather event will be the low-level inversion that has locked in due to the abnormal cold we've had... I fail to see how the inversion/cold right now has a connection to any potential severe threat, especially since there looks to be a period of milder weather beforehand. It's tough getting severe in Michigan in December but I guess I don't follow your logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I fail to see how the inversion/cold right now has a connection to any potential severe threat, especially since there looks to be a period of milder weather beforehand. It's tough getting severe in Michigan in December but I guess I don't follow your logic. Well like any system this time of year, it's much harder to generate instability and sustain vertical development with the capped mixing heights (because of the cold low-level airmass that will be retreating), short of having an extremely warm antecedent airmass (like October 2007) or a system like we had last November in which the intense synoptic forces convective development. I was pretty much just stating the obvious detriment. Sure, we do get events like November 2013, but they're not common for the aforementioned reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not expecting much locally (except maybe more synoptic high winds). But the biggest detriment to a bigger severe weather event will be the low-level inversion that has locked in due to the abnormal cold we've had... Well like any system this time of year, it's much harder to generate instability and sustain vertical development with the capped mixing heights (because of the cold low-level airmass that will be retreating), short of having an extremely warm antecedent airmass (like October 2007) or a system like we had last November in which the intense synoptic forces convective development. I was pretty much just stating the obvious detriment. Sure, we do get events like November 2013, but they're not common for the aforementioned reason. These two things together don't make any sense. If you have very strong WAA, like 11/17/13 and regardless of time of year, you can get severe weather regardless of what the antecedent air mass was like (because it replaces it). There was a strong (I believe record breaking in some areas) cold snap 5 days prior to 11/17/13. Either you are misplacing your words/terms or you are off on a strange tangent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would agree that this is not an event that I would expect to cause severe weather north of I 80. But in the original post I outline an area south of basically I 70. As I said earlier both cases I outlined featured substaintial below normal temperatures before the outbreak. I am not at all worried about recent cold, really has nothing to do with this developing threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 To the OP, the two outbreaks you listed are literally the top-end for the region in the given month and Dec 1957 is generally the meter stick that all December tornado events are measured up against. It's going to take something pretty serious to reach those heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 To the OP, the two outbreaks you listed are literally the top-end for the region in the given month and Dec 1957 is generally the meter stick that all December tornado events are measured up against. It's going to take something pretty serious to reach those heights. I said ceiling, I would agree that is THE event for not just December but probably October, November and December. I just see some similar aspects that could push this to a fairly significant event. It is a long ways out, but things are lining up to be interesting at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Some big outbreaks have already been mentioned in this thread, but here are some smaller outbreaks that have occurred in the month of December... keeping in mind that older events in particular were underreported. Warning: image overload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I said ceiling, I would agree that is THE event for not just December but probably October, November and December. I just see some similar aspects that could push this to a fairly significant event. It is a long ways out, but things are lining up to be interesting at the very least. But that's almost like saying any deep trough 10 days away from impacting the southeast in the middle of spring has a ceiling of April 3 or April 27. Maybe it's just me, but I'm never going to understand the point of posting some model runs almost 2 weeks out and compare them to a major event. That's probably why my facebook page only has 85 likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 But that's almost like saying any deep trough 10 days away from impacting the southeast in the middle of spring has a ceiling of April 3 or April 27. Maybe it's just me, but I'm never going to understand the point of posting some model runs almost 2 weeks out and compare them to a major event. That's probably why my facebook page only has 85 likes. Hey I understand this is a pretty bold call. For me it was not just the models but a combination of the models and the overall pattern along with some analog events. I hope I am wrong really, but I felt comfortable enough with the risk to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Well, so much for this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 Shanked that one. Goes to show not to trust the models past a few days this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Don't feel too bad. Even the ensembles were not too good for this timeframe as the flow is a lot flatter than earlier shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Shanked that one. Goes to show not to trust the models past a few days this year long range forecasting is more than just looking at a couple sets of models from 10-14 days out and predicting a major outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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