40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ens mean is plenty "wet" for you.Jesus, I'm sure Mike is a great guy, but I can't take listening to him piss and moan his way into another pivot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ALB and BTV want 50% of their seasonal averages prior to Christmas. That'd be a cool stat.You want to know what would be even cooler? Having attained 50% of mean seasonal snowfall at ALB and BTV by about St Paddy's day, while amassing about 250% of mean annual cirrus between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well the populous here is very weary of big NW trends at this point based on the past few systems. Just like recent years where we've seen a bunch of sharp SE trends burn us...you start to get it into your head that it's going to happen over and over. So even if the model runs stay off-shore to the SE, no one is going to want to hear a peep out of CNE/NNE complaining because they are waiting for that NW shift. I don't like the notion of 'seasonal trends'. To be sure one may find compelling reasons in the atmosphere/modeling to suggest that things will track in a certain way, but I don't think it's wise to say things will do so based on what prior systems have done. But, we've got another day and a half or so before we're in the timeframe I'd call it a real threat. Fun to track at this point regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well the populous here is very weary of big NW trends at this point based on the past few systems. Just like recent years where we've seen a bunch of sharp SE trends burn us...you start to get it into your head that it's going to happen over and over. So even if the model runs stay off-shore to the SE, no one is going to want to hear a peep out of CNE/NNE complaining because they are waiting for that NW shift. Well these srn streams are notorious for NW shifts. It doesn't mean this has to shift, because the s/w in question may shear apart etc..but I'd rather where it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wxrisk.com 6 hours ago · ** UPDATE 0Z MODAY EURO MODEL HOLDS COURSE ... DOES NOT CHANGE.. STILL SHOWS MAJOR EAST CALST WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS JUST to the W..NW of I-95 ** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is it me or did the EC speed up a tad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Jesus, I'm sure Mike is a great guy, but I can't take listening to him piss and moan his way into another pivot. See MPM...they are expecting this to go quite a bit NW. Like when we expect it to go SE some patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wxrisk.com 6 hours ago · ** UPDATE 0Z MODAY EURO MODEL HOLDS COURSE ... DOES NOT CHANGE.. STILL SHOWS MAJOR EAST CALST WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS JUST to the W..NW of I-95 ** He has to enable spell check..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 See MPM...they are expecting this to go quite a bit NW. Like when we expect it to go SE some patterns.Difference is our concerns are warranted. Southern stream systems are notorious for this....it's not just about a seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You want to know what would be even cooler? Having attained 50% of mean seasonal snowfall at ALB and BTV by about St Paddy's day, while amassing about 250% of mean annual cirrus between now and then. lol you are getting real antsy and annoyed it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yes it does seem a little faster. HPC now has a 1004 low sitting just inside the benchmark at 12Z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Difference is our concerns are warranted. Southern stream systems are notorious for this....it's not just about a seasonal trend. By Thursday the fears out here will have transitioned from fretting about a fringe job to how much snow do we get before the flip to rain. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 lol you are getting real antsy and annoyed it seems. Nah. If I miss out on a white xmas, then I'll be moody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 By Thursday the fears out here will have transitioned from fretting about a fringe job to how much snow do we get before the flip to rain. lol. I don't think you'll have to worry about that. I think from ORH points n and w are probably safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wxrisk.com 6 hours ago · ** UPDATE 0Z MODAY EURO MODEL HOLDS COURSE ... DOES NOT CHANGE.. STILL SHOWS MAJOR EAST CALST WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS JUST to the W..NW of I-95 ** Honestly it did change north of NYC but it's only one OP run. I really think he is more of a mid Atlantic met, I got into it with him on Facebook about the Thanksgiving storm because his snow map was too conservative for my area and he flipped out but In the end I was closer to being correct than he was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Honestly it did change north of NYC but it's only one OP run. I really think he is more of a mid Atlantic met, I got into it with him on Facebook about the Thanksgiving storm because his snow map was too conservative for my area and he flipped out but In the end I was closer to being correct than he was. Don't know why I'm doing this but literal interpretation is a good hit for the southern 2/3 of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ...and he flipped out ... Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Unbelievable Because that has never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Because that has never happened Hope he didn't threaten his mother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Congtats to the south for what appears to be a white christmas you guys deserve it. I will be smoking cirrus till after christmas and will enjoy my brown lawn LOL. Really looks good for you guys! Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Amherst NH. Where weenies run wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I would be perfectly happy/take my chances with approximately half of the euro ens members right now. The op and the mean might be a tad southeast, but there are plenty of members that deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I would be perfectly happy/take my chances with approximately half of the euro ens members right now. The op and the mean might be a tad southeast, but there are plenty of members that deliver the goods. Just looked at the entire pantheon of guidance relative to this event for the first time, and was surprised to see how flat everything is. Fine by me. I'd rather smoke cirrus, than see the picnic tables decorated in white for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just looked at the entire pantheon of guidance relative to this event for the first time, and was surprised to see how flat everything is. Fine by me. I'd rather smoke cirrus, than see the picnic tables decorated in white for the holiday. it's not even worth discussing in much detail at this timeframe. Wait till about Wednesday and we'll talk more about possible tracks. There is a storm modeled in the general timeframe just prior to Christmas. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 He has to enable spell check..... He's as bad as me when I'm posting from my phone. Difference is our concerns are warranted. Southern stream systems are notorious for this....it's not just about a seasonal trend. I guess I just don't see why models wouldn't incorporate that into their output. If it's something that 'always' happens, it shouldn't be something that escapes the modeling. Note that I recognize the uses/limitations of predictive models as I use them in my work. By Thursday the fears out here will have transitioned from fretting about a fringe job to how much snow do we get before the flip to rain. lol. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 it's not even worth discussing in much detail at this timeframe. Wait till about Wednesday and we'll talk more about possible tracks. There is a storm modeled in the general timeframe just prior to Christmas. Done. I'll talk about whichever system I want, when I want. No one needs a bombastic moderator. Southern systems being modeled as surpressed at extended leads is probably the safest bet. Fact, not opinion. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Mike, I think it has something to do with the convection that is endemic to these soutern streamers...the latent heat release tends to shift things northward Models never handle that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'll talk about whichever system I want, when I want. No one needs a bombastic moderator. Southern systems being modeled as surpressed at extended leads is probably the safest bet. Fact, not opinion. Done. Awesome Ray! I may put that one in my sig later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just looked at the entire pantheon of guidance relative to this event for the first time, and was surprised to see how flat everything is. Fine by me. I'd rather smoke cirrus, than see the picnic tables decorated in white for the holiday. Yeah guidance overall is pretty flat. I think thats what we need right now to have any shot. We all know how these trend closer to verification time. I would rather this whiff than get 3+" of rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Awesome Ray! I may put that one in my sig later today. I mean, I like Bob, but it's not as though I was talking amounts....I don't think preliminary qualitative conjecture is unwaranted within a week of go-time...especially considering the enormous travel ramifications at play. Sorry, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.