HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I thought there was one a couple days ago in LA? I saw video showing one a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 No the wheels are in motion prior to Christmas. It won't be that long. I could see one messy storm near Christmas and perhaps another after as an example. One or both could be on the snowier side. Tough to say. Edit: i meant that the effects of the paatern change really wont be noticable until Jan. sounds like. That is, this marginal air that we've suffered through since TG will still be with us before the -EPO/-NAO take affect...that's what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Edit: i meant that the effects of the paatern change really wont be noticable until Jan. sounds like. That is, this marginal air that we've suffered through since TG will still be with us before the -EPO/-NAO take affect...that's what I meant. The airmass is actually decent next week prior to that low. The colder air comes maybe after 27-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 My bad in the tornado, Was watching twc on the plane today. The 1983 tornado was associated with an incredible storm. It came ashore wth tstorms and torrential rain. LA gets it's best thunder in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thinking Rain/Snow for this weekend, 25-26th snow, and then a few days later snow. With a parade of southern stream systems in play and return of the northern stream into the US, chances for phasing storms is more likely with chances for snowfall the later you get into next week. The first of the series will be a rain to snow idea Tuesday night/Wednesday of this week. There is the potential for snow showers on Friday with the passage of the northern stream H5 low. Then a few days later on the 21/22 there is the potential for rain and snow, followed by a colder storm scenario on the 25/26th. We are still a few days away from the lead shortwave, so we have time to figure out the rest later. There is absloutely no reason to believe that the 25/26th will be a colder solution than the 21st...in fact it seems more likely AT THIS POINT that the 21st has a better chance at delivering snows closer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS doing a Norlun at 0z. I guess we'll just wait and see what we have by Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The airmass is actually decent next week prior to that low. The colder air comes maybe after 27-28.I guess with more HP up in Canada it is. But i'd prefer it to be colder at 850 like last December, instead of playing with 0 degrees or a little less like we have been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 And there she blows. GFS showing the grinch storm. Never fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 And there she blows. GFS showing the grinch storm. Never fails Yep the GFS blows alright,as a model..I'm sure it will be exactly like the 262 hr GFS OP shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm really excited with where we are at with the weekend storm system, GFS is progressive and weaker with the southern stream, while the EURO is opposite, normally the EURO does better with southern stream and northern stream interactions. We have had numerous northern stream shortwaves that have been strong in strength since October, the catalysts for the snowstorm phase. SO we have plenty of chances at storms and snow in the medium to long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Funny....everyone is going to be in suspense all week regarding what this pre xmas storm is going to do.....guidance waffles.....BM, cape, ensembles are east,but there is a larger cluster west, mid levels look a hair warmer, but surface colder. The energy responsible for this system is over Mongolia, its far too early, blah, blah. I'll save you guys a $hit load of angst...and sleep. Evolution will be similar to tday eve storm. Track from anywhere just se of Ack to as far nw as the.cc canal. Mainly rain se.of KBos. Nw of Boston should escape with some snow on the ground, congrats Moneyb**tch Mike, Hubbdave, Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Funny....everyone is going to be in suspense all week regarding what this pre xmas storm is going to do.....guidance waffles.....BM, cape, ensembles are east,but there is a larger cluster west, mid levels look a hair warmer, but surface colder. The energy responsible for this system is over Mongolia, its far too early, blah, blah. I'll save you guys a $hit load of angst...and sleep. Evolution will be similar to tday eve storm. Track from anywhere just se of Ack to as far nw as the.cc canal. Mainly rain se.of KBos. Nw of Boston should escape with some snow on the ground, congrats Moneyb**tch Mike, Hubbdave, Dendrite. There is a 50/50 low in place, this will block it from going too far west, a SE of ACK track is more likely then a CC canal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 There is a 50/50 low in place, this will block it from going too far west, a SE of ACK track is more likely then a CC canal track.Watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Watch and wait. I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The EC has shifted the Saturday night/Sunday event way SE to a track just SE of the benchmark. The EC Ensembles look similar to the prior run which was also SE of the BM. Nice run for many, bummer run for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The EC has shifted the Saturday night/Sunday event way SE to a track just SE of the benchmark. The EC Ensembles look similar to the prior run which was also SE of the BM. Nice run for many, bummer run for others. Ens mean is plenty "wet" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah I'd rather the EC where it is now. Have we not learned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meanwhile, all systems go after Christmas for a period at least anyways. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We certainly do not want what the Euro op showed yesterday. Much better solution for all of us overnight. Then another Xmas day ..Getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We certainly do not want what the Euro op showed yesterday. Much better solution for all of us overnight. Then another Xmas day ..Getting closer Speak for yourself. 30.4/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We certainly do not want what the Euro op showed yesterday. Much better solution for all of us overnight. Then another Xmas day ..Getting closer ALB and BTV want 50% of their seasonal averages prior to Christmas. That'd be a cool stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ensembles pretty nice with the 12/21-22 system. Op naso much as it's dry but who cares this far out. Big winter now coming inside of d10. It's coming folks and coming hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The EC has shifted the Saturday night/Sunday event way SE to a track just SE of the benchmark. The EC Ensembles look similar to the prior run which was also SE of the BM. Nice run for many, bummer run for others. You are going to get crucified on here this week I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You are going to get crucified on here this week I think. I like Ray's nickname for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You are going to get crucified on here this week I think. Perhaps. We'll see how things evolve. Either way, I suspect I'll have bare ground come Wednesday, and that's a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ensembles pretty nice with the 12/21-22 system. Op naso much as it's dry but who cares this far out. Big winter now coming inside of d10. It's coming folks and coming hard! Op is nice for Pike south..but obviously it's too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro still showing some type of pseudo SWFE event 24-25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Op is nice for Pike south..but obviously it's too far south Taken literally it isn't and the dividing line isn't the pike but about 50 miles south. But I would rather that be the op signal now vs opposite knowing how things trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The EC ensembles still have significant variation as would be expected. The mean looks nice but we all know how plain vanilla the mean has to be. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Perhaps. We'll see how things evolve. Either way, I suspect I'll have bare ground come Wednesday, and that's a bummer. Well the populous here is very weary of big NW trends at this point based on the past few systems. Just like recent years where we've seen a bunch of sharp SE trends burn us...you start to get it into your head that it's going to happen over and over. So even if the model runs stay off-shore to the SE, no one is going to want to hear a peep out of CNE/NNE complaining because they are waiting for that NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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