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December-winter is finally here!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

I think MOS is going to be a little too warm as we get into later next week. Those sfc highs to our north are pretty damn cold despite the relative torch look to the mid level temps. Much of Canada south of the Hudson has 850s progged around 0C to -4C yet afternoon 2m temps have consistently been modeled in the single digits degF. Yeah...use extended 2m temps with caution, but I'm just making a point. We're approaching the solstice too so this is classic crappy-mix out season.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

ah-heh ... yeah, I'd like to see this Euro solution get to day 4.5 this time.  All model biases aside, the flow has has three or four beta synoptic scaled ridge nodes along with their attending quasi-micro Rex construct lows ...and ...Jesus.  That's about as nebular a pattern as can happen from 72 to 132 hours.  

 

What the Euro does (and for those that have read about the ECMWF's heredity, know this) is employs smoothing to eliminate errors.  The problem I have with that is that during times where the wave lengths are harder to define, I have often wondered how much "over" simplification the Euro is arriving.  You can see it's smoothing happening at 144 hours by comparing the GFS to the Euro's modeled geopotential, 500mb chart. The GFS conserves a lot more small S/W junk, with small kinks and v-maxes dappled about the medium.  The Euro coalesces the field by that interval, into perhaps three or four much more coherent features; one of which is the southern stream that goes onto producing a M/A cold rain (yeah I said it..).  

 

It could be right..sure. But smoothing, in general, to eliminate errors ... heh, I've always had a problem with that assumption: "errors". Who/what decides what spontaneous, or even vestigial (either) perturbations in the flow should be eliminated?  It seems what the Euro really does by smoothing is plays a percentage game ... where if it smooths it will be right say ... 57% of the time in it's later middle range.  Contrasting to say 43% success with the GFS'.  They go to market with their better percent performance, everyone thinks their geniuses and buy in ... they get rich.  That's okay ... if it is a better product, it is what it is. By it's not "really" modeling the atmosphere, because by damping out spontaneously emergent events, it is eliminating chaos from the physics. Chaos is a key term in atmospheric events; and therefore (to me) it seems conveniently removing it ultimate limits how good that product can be.  

 

It gets into murky philosophy ... Like, 'what IS chaos'?  I suppose in human parlance it's defined as the undefinable (more than less...) But, does that mean that it is absolutely undefinable, or that we simply do not have the mathematics and/or observation skills as yet evolved, capable of putting definition on forces that may only "appear" be bolts from the blue.

 

I guess until we do, the Euro will have to do.  ... But, I would take these D6 idea on the EC with a bigger grain of salt then usual, given to the complexly intermingled focus-deficient nature of the nebular flow leading up to all that.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah let's keep that a bit south for now. We know how those southern streamers tend to trend...

EPS had a little redevelopment in the Gulf of Maine on the 24th. It's way out there, but I have hope to avoid true Grinch status this season.

I'm going up there on the 27th. Hoping for a decent pack. How much do you have on the ground now?

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Low of 21F this morning.

Glad to see we have some more 35F rain in the forecast because I didn't get my fill last week.

 

 

LOL--I was really hoping we'd keep snowcover from this point on, but that just ain't gonna happen with the rain coming in mid-week.  Alas.

 

I think MOS is going to be a little too warm as we get into later next week. Those sfc highs to our north are pretty damn cold despite the relative torch look to the mid level temps. Much of Canada south of the Hudson has 850s progged around 0C to -4C yet afternoon 2m temps have consistently been modeled in the single digits degF. Yeah...use extended 2m temps with caution, but I'm just making a point. We're approaching the solstice too so this is classic crappy-mix out season.

 

I agree--at least up toward you and above.  There will likely be a world of difference between you and us in the tropical climes.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

3 inches crunchy concrete here.

 

Feels like we are now getting to the hardcore where we can start to track multiple storms for a stretch.  Up here I gotta figure we get some frozen if not all frozen for the 21st, and then redevelopment along the coast for some frozen around Xmas, then the cold comes and I hope we don't see suppression.  Do Ninos tend towards suppression in NNE?

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Feels like we are now getting to the hardcore where we can start to track multiple storms for a stretch.  Up here I gotta figure we get some frozen if not all frozen for the 21st, and then redevelopment along the coast for some frozen around Xmas, then the cold comes and I hope we don't see suppression.  Do Ninos tend towards suppression in NNE?

The period around the 19th-21st most guidance suggests could be a pretty low amplitude and dampening wave.  Although I think there is still some room for this to improve.  Thereafter the split flow is pretty convoluted and uncertain.  There generally looks to be some cold around with potential storminess, but no discernible characteristic pattern.  The upcoming pariod could end up being as boring as anything since mid November.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Have to lean over guidance for temperatures tomorrow. +7-10C at 850? Have to think someone in Connecticut at least has a shot at hitting 50 degrees. Guidance is closely clustered in the lower 40s. Yesterday verified a couple of degrees above guidance and the same is the trend for today.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Is it almost too much of a good thing as modeled?  It seems that the double blocks block off the arctic, and leave a gyre of so-so home-grown over Canada.   

 

I wouldn't worry one iota about what the op is showing. A truncated model post hr 300 isn't going to get the details. All you should really do is just take a gander of the overall look. 

 

I am thinking that meltdowns will be occurring if my theory of angst is right. We will have to go through some ugly storms I think. Sorry. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

There have been several cases lately where HFD has been strangely lower than BDL. Even during precipitation. Wonder what's going on?

 

Brian looked at the MADIS site and BDL definitely seems to have a warm bias. There has been a drift over the last two years.

 

http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/search?site=KBDL&Get+information=Get+information

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

There have been several cases lately where HFD has been strangely lower than BDL. Even during precipitation. Wonder what's going on?

BAF 42

HFD 42

CEF 39/40

BDL 46

More like BDL is strangely too high. We talked about this weeks ago, but BOX told Ryan they were fine. MADIS has BDL running about 2F too high.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

BAF 42

HFD 42

CEF 39/40

BDL 46

More like BDL is strangely too high. We talked about this weeks ago, but BOX told Ryan they were fine. MADIS has BDL running about 2F too high.

The flags went up for me earlier this season when it was snowing at both stations and the "urban heat island" of HFD was something like 2-3F cooler. Years ago you would never see BDL above HFD during precip. (Unless there was some mesoscale setup)

No doubt something is off at BDL.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Brian looked at the MADIS site and BDL definitely seems to have a warm bias. There has been a drift over the last two years.

http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/search?site=KBDL&Get+information=Get+information

here's the last 52 weeks again...

http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/search?site=KBDL;Get%20information=Get%20information;days=364#Data

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

BAF 42

HFD 42

CEF 39/40

BDL 46

More like BDL is strangely too high. We talked about this weeks ago, but BOX told Ryan they were fine. MADIS has BDL running about 2F too high.

 

37.9/31 here at the Pit.   A high of 38.2 so far, snow trying to hold tight, but most of the road's melted at this point, ftl.  A snow covered road is so much better than the semi-paved one.

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