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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Well the euro ensembles have a decent look at the storm on the 21-22, but also a Grinch type low. LOL.

 

Scott--what are you seeing wrt to the spread on the ensembles for the 21-22?  The mean looks like it's decent for southern and coastal areas (congrats), but risks fringing GC, which is of course the more important region.  :)

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Scott--what are you seeing wrt to the spread on the ensembles for the 21-22?  The mean looks like it's decent for southern and coastal areas (congrats), but risks fringing GC, which is of course the more important region.  :)

 

It's at risk for fringing all of us really. It's probably in a decent spot this far out because it could trend north.

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GFS was insistent on a couple inland tracking lows....but did have a very SWFE appeal with a primary going into OH/PA/NY then getting shoved east and likely redeveloping.

 

This is what I meant by a couple of transition lows and eventually the cold and trough swinging more east. The real meat of any cold will be probably after the 28 or so.

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Well hopefully the snow we get with the storm on the 21st is enough to last thru the holiday if it ends up being a SWFE

 

The 21 had a real nice look. Nice high and everything, just a bit SE. It did bring decent precip probs into SNE, but I can't see the members, which may shed more light.

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The 21 had a real nice look. Nice high and everything, just a bit SE. It did bring decent precip probs into SNE, but I can't see the members, which may shed more light.

These numbers are using WxBell snow algorithm's so take them with a grain of salt, but 13/50 members had 2" or more at BOS, and 42/50 have at least 0.1"(Those numbers do seem reasonable though looking at the actual runs of the individual members).

 

Those numbers get higher as you head inland to ORH and BDL.

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It's at risk for fringing all of us really. It's probably in a decent spot this far out because it could trend north.

Yeah let's keep that a bit south for now. We know how those southern streamers tend to trend...

EPS had a little redevelopment in the Gulf of Maine on the 24th. It's way out there, but I have hope to avoid true Grinch status this season.

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