powderfreak Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Wow, didn"t PF just say he was his friend? Haha TK is a good guy. I even rib him about his forecasting. He's just an enthusiastic guy, but I know what Coastal means too. TK will always go with the more fun or exciting option...he loves meteorology. He wants exciting. Him and Blizz would be best friends. But TK is good stuff as a forecaster, skier and person...awesome dude to take runs with a grab a beer with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I wouldn't be as optimistic as I am if I was forecasting, I can afford to be more aggressive because I don't have people hinging on my every breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z GEFS individual members show that there are better chances for a more amplified and stronger storm center on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Wow, didn"t PF just say he was his friend? Yes and did you not see his earlier comment? I'm not talking about him as a person lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Haha TK is a good guy. I even rib him about his forecasting. He's just an enthusiastic guy, but I know what Coastal means too. TK will always go with the more fun or exciting option...he loves meteorology. He wants exciting. Him and Blizz would be best friends. But TK is good stuff as a forecaster, skier and person...awesome dude to take runs with a grab a beer with. Certainly not your typical boring science guy for sure. The passion he displays does overwhelm his senses at times but certainly he is an asset to the weather community. A lot of public figures its like watching paint dry, most of them really do not participate in the weather but rather drive to work go home and then get back up and do the same. When you are skiing, surfing etc (an outdoorsman) you have a deeply vested interest in every single day. Yes his enthusiasm gets wild but all in all he is great to read, watch and learn from. Not somebody I would diss professional to professional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z EURO up to hour 96 is further southwest with the transfer of the surface low, still 96 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z EURO up to 120 shows a depiction similar to the NAM not the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Many winters we have to wait until post MLK day at least down here. So getting things going right after Christmas is like a bonus three weeks of winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Well what I mean is that if I see something not so favorable, chances are it won't be and I'll probably go with that. There are cases where it's not always a good thing to go conservative despite what models say. I usually know what it takes around here, so it just depends on the circumstances. And that is a beautiful pic. Very envious. So we will be looking for you to start honking around the 25th then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I didn't even know you were Stowes forecaster, congrats. You have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them. Well we pay for hourly temperature, wind, weather forecast that covers various elevations...it's pretty much like code that pulls model data and fills in the temps/dews/wind at various elevations going out a few days. So I basically look at that and see what I think...if it's too low, too warm, too snowy, or not snowy enough. I take all the information to our daily snow meeting (we actually have a meeting called "Snow Plan" every day) where we essentially talk about weather and snow and how our operations will go based on that over the next 24 hours. Ie what to groom, where to make snow, what the weather will do to the snow surface, when the best time to groom will be (early or late at night), etc. I think a lot of folks would be fascinated to see how in depth a ski operations meeting can get towards snow and weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 So we will be looking for you to start honking around the 25th then Different up there though . I wouldn't write off the 21 either. My comment is more referring to near term stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 TK tweets some absurd crap. He has every right to get called out on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Different up there though . I wouldn't write off the 21 either. My comment is more referring to near term stuff. Yes it is up here, Even in a crappy pattern is can and has produced, This next one could end up similar to this last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Well we pay for hourly temperature, wind, weather forecast that covers various elevations...it's pretty much like code that pulls model data and fills in the temps/dews/wind at various elevations going out a few days. So I basically look at that and see what I think...if it's too low, too warm, too snowy, or not snowy enough. I take all the information to our daily snow meeting (we actually have a meeting called "Snow Plan" every day) where we essentially talk about weather and snow and how our operations will go based on that over the next 24 hours. Ie what to groom, where to make snow, what the weather will do to the snow surface, when the best time to groom will be (early or late at night), etc. I think a lot of folks would be fascinated to see how in depth a ski operations meeting can get towards snow and weather. Nice oh yea I am sure its very detailed with all the variances that go in. The ocatgon web Cam today has been amazing. I used one shot for a wallpaper. wow man congrats on just an incredible start. What % of climo are you at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Yeah he does at times, its comical and funny though, I don't think anyone takes that seriously though. Scott thoughts on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z Euro is going to try to make the one on the 21st more interesting then the 0z run that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z Euro is going to try to make the one on the 21st more interesting then the 0z run that's for sure whats 925 like, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Pretty strong inversion setting up for the mild up days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 whats 925 like, lol Like snow actually not that it really matters now, Would be a decent storm for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Yeah he does at times, its comical and funny though, I don't think anyone takes that seriously though. Scott thoughts on the EURO? Haven't seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Like snow actually not that it really matters now, Would be a decent storm for SNE Pretty torched at 850 at 192, as far as I got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Brett (tBlizz), this looks like one of those instances where it may take a couple of storms to get the trough east. What I mean is, many times when you reshuffle the deck, the troughs start digging in the Plains and Midwest which means you run into problems with ptype. Gradually you tick that trough east and then your chances of snow improve. To me, that could very well happen. Thanks, makes sense. Overall, just happy to see storms. We will get ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Pretty torched at 850 at 192, as far as I got hr 198 to 210 was better, It would be snow and that is when the bulk of it would fall anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Mid-Atl weenies enjoyed that run. It's not worth dissecting lalaland progs, but at least we have a storm threat. Only 100 hrs to go to get it to d4. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Mid-Atl weenies enjoyed that run. It's not worth dissecting lalaland progs, but at least we have a storm threat. Only 100 hrs to go to get it to d4. lol I hope most already know this and won't run with its solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I hope most already know this and won't run with its solutionMost do...some say they do, but truly don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Had a dusting at sunrise and another awhile ago in shaded areas. 3rd or 4 th snowy day here loving this winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro op looks promising especially south of Pike on the 20-21 system. Definitely a northward shift from the previous run. Still way too much time to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Most do...some say they do, but truly don't. I agree, And those are the ones that set themselves up for more disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I hope most already know this and won't run with its solution lala lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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