Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lol, yeah.PF never fails to amuse me with his underplaying, there's conservative like you then there's Tea Party PF. He's the antithesis to Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 When I read comments like that and then see the pictures, it makes me want to throw up. Lol All I've had so far this month is monsoon like rains. Think that week between Christmas and new Years has any legs? I don't feel sorry for you, I live a little further east than you do and I have been deluged in rainfall. mother Nature provides us with snow to those who are patient and wait her out, we just have to wait, I think she delivers sometime between Next Sunday and New Years Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 PF never fails to amuse me with his underplaying, there's conservative like you then there's Tea Party PF. He's the antithesis to Kevin I'm only conservative if it calls for it. But yeah, I pretty much want to stab my eyes out lol. TBlizz, yeah something will brew at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I'm only conservative if it calls for it. But yeah, I pretty much want to stab my eyes out lol. TBlizz, yeah something will brew at that time. Seems like our best shot for something this month. I'll take a small event at this point. Does look better moving forward though. Hopefully we got this crappy period out of the way early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Brett is becoming unhinged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Brett is becoming unhinged. I only do that for gentlemen who pay for at least one meal first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I only do that for gentlemen who pay for at least one meal first. Good to know. I wine and dine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 GFS parallel and GFS operational models are at odds with one another when it comes to the 17/18th storm potential. The parallel model actually transfers its energy to the coastline just ne of Provincetown, MA while the GFS operational keeps the northern stream energy intense and does not transfer energy at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 GFS parallel and GFS operational models are at odds with one another when it comes to the 17/18th storm potential. The parallel model actually transfers its energy to the coastline just ne of Provincetown, MA while the GFS operational keeps the northern stream energy intense and does not transfer energy at all. It doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lol, Scott's in particularly somber towel thrower mood today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lol, Scott's in particularly somber towel thrower mood today By stating the obvious for next week? I'm fine. Things should improve post 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z GFS is slightly faster with the 21//22 storm potential in the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The 21/22 is the one that has some potential with it. Part of the problem is that it appears the GFS has no fooking clue on how the handle that weird cutoff low over the nrn Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The 21/22 is the one that has some potential with it. Part of the problem is that it appears the GFS has no fooking clue on how the handle that weird cutoff low over the nrn Plains. Neither does every other model know how to handle that cut off in the northern stream, remember its a cold cut off low, not one found in the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 OES bands starting to reorient themselves North to South, instead of NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z GFS operational model out to sea with the 21/22 storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Brett (tBlizz), this looks like one of those instances where it may take a couple of storms to get the trough east. What I mean is, many times when you reshuffle the deck, the troughs start digging in the Plains and Midwest which means you run into problems with ptype. Gradually you tick that trough east and then your chances of snow improve. To me, that could very well happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 It doesn't matter.but the nam is quicker to transfer the energy to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Light snow again, been on and off here for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Brett (tBlizz), this looks like one of those instances where it may take a couple of storms to get the trough east. What I mean is, many times when you reshuffle the deck, the troughs start digging in the Plains and Midwest which means you run into problems with ptype. Gradually you tick that trough east and then your chances of snow improve. To me, that could very well happen. The danger, of course, is a storm that doesn't deliver tugging things far enough east that the next one whiffs completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The 21/22 is the one that has some potential with it. Part of the problem is that it appears the GFS has no fooking clue on how the handle that weird cutoff low over the nrn Plains. anomalously nebular chaotic atmosphere on this side of the hemisphere Corrected ... j/k, but seriously.. I think that N- plain low is the least of the GFS problems... That mid range may as well be a plate of angel hair pasta! One thing I will say, PNA is technically still positive throughout. Agreed the basic tenor of the operational and to varying degrees, their ensemble means, is to pound sand up Kevin's winter butt, but so long as the PNA is true, things can break favorably. It's just a matter of cleaning up noise. The problem is (as you have mentioned before) still the NP (North Pacific)...It's found it's way into an AB phase since the uber SPV event last month; we mentioned the other day that it was quasi compensatory looking/balancing and so forth... It may be that the PNA is registering slightly positive because the AB phase is so extreme it's lopping over -- to say. I agree in all, that details probably could be argued here and there, to and fro but at the end of the day, all arguments lead to the same conclusion ... and that is, barring a local time/space anomaly (such that the 21/22 deal would likely be), December may be written in the stars as a disappointing month. There is one small shred of optimism for winter enthusiasts, tho - Check out the new warm burst modeled by the GFS in the high stratosphere for D10. I checked last week and this sort of event was not modeled then, so it's new, and might mean a changing of the AO guard for some 15 days down the road. That more or less jives with the consensus anyway. Other than that, we get lucky, or we get what's expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 PF never fails to amuse me with his underplaying, there's conservative like you then there's Tea Party PF. He's the antithesis to Kevin You guys on here may think that, but I seem to keep my job forecasting for the mountain by being conservative. I could be like my buddy TKelly who throws out feet of snow like halloween candy most events. We joke with each other about that a lot. He'll send a text saying 24-36" and I'll say like 8-16" haha. The main reason is though at a ski area, getting more snow is good. Getting less snow is bad. So plan for the worst...the rainy solution, the snowless solution, the warmth. Then it makes it much easier when you don't get that. Its just the nature of the objective. Like someone trying to plan for highway salting and plowing, they might err on the side of being too aggressive, and if the ice storm doesn't pan out, well, at least people are dying on their way to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I'm only conservative if it calls for it. But yeah, I pretty much want to stab my eyes out lol. You are conservative on here, its not a bad thing. I'm stabbing my eyes out today because its so darn bright now that the sun is coming out and the clouds are doing weird things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 You are conservative on here, its not a bad thing. I'm stabbing my eyes out today because its so darn bright now that the sun is coming out and the clouds are doing weird things. photo-1.JPG Well what I mean is that if I see something not so favorable, chances are it won't be and I'll probably go with that. There are cases where it's not always a good thing to go conservative despite what models say. I usually know what it takes around here, so it just depends on the circumstances. And that is a beautiful pic. Very envious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Well what I mean is that if I see something not so favorable, chances are it won't be and I'll probably go with that. There are cases where it's not always a good thing to go conservative despite what models say. I usually know what it takes around here, so it just depends on the circumstances. And that is a beautiful pic. Very envious. With me I just get turned off a lot by the guys that are ridiculously optimistic and hyping. So I think I dislike that to the point of going so conservative at times, too. The ski industry has a lot of those types of people, too. Where every storm is going to be the next biggest thing since sliced bread. Like the folks that only forecast in feet and not inches. Yeah, it can dump in the mountains, but its not an automatic given. If we are comparing it to the cities, then yeah, it snows more. Which probably comes off as ridiculously conservative to some of you, but I'm usually pretty decent at forecasting snow here. That's often the issue on these forums when someone says something from a snowier climate that gets interpreted differently by someone in a less snowy climate. It always used to happen in the old forum when SNE was posting with the Mid-Atlantic. If someone in SNE complained about something, the mid-Atlantic guys would get pissed because they live in a less snowy climate. Like you have a big New England storm, but some folks in SNE are posting that they are disappointed because it was only 7" instead of 12+...the mid-Atlantic guys would get ruffled because they got zero, and 7" is better than zero they would say. We had a lot more of that stuff when the forum was just everyone on the east coast posting together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 You guys on here may think that, but I seem to keep my job forecasting for the mountain by being conservative. I could be like my buddy TKelly who throws out feet of snow like halloween candy most events. We joke with each other about that a lot. He'll send a text saying 24-36" and I'll say like 8-16" haha. The main reason is though at a ski area, getting more snow is good. Getting less snow is bad. So plan for the worst...the rainy solution, the snowless solution, the warmth. Then it makes it much easier when you don't get that. Its just the nature of the objective. Like someone trying to plan for highway salting and plowing, they might err on the side of being too aggressive, and if the ice storm doesn't pan out, well, at least people are dying on their way to work. I didn't even know you were Stowes forecaster, congrats. You have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I like to sometimes post about things being positive and a little hyped up because I want to point out the danger in discounting something so far out into the future where the models have a chance to change their tune. I will be more pessimistic whenever they are within a range of regularity and the trend does not become our friend. I don't think this winter will be similar to last year because I think most solutions within 72 hours will end up being what the models say it will be because we are in an EL NINO and not a LA NINA pattern where a models biases may come into play. However EL NINOs drive the sub-tropical jet which is easier to navigate once upon the US mainland where as its harder to predict the northern stream because its in Canada. For the most part I will err on the side of optimism between hours 72 and 240, given the many potential outcomes that are clearly possible, I will sever that optimism once upon hour 72 where I know the models have a much better handle on the jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 With me I just get turned off a lot by the guys that are ridiculously optimistic and hyping. So I think I dislike that to the point of going so conservative at times, too. The ski industry has a lot of those types of people, too. Where every storm is going to be the next biggest thing since sliced bread. Like the folks that only forecast in feet and not inches. Yeah, it can dump in the mountains, but its not an automatic given. If we are comparing it to the cities, then yeah, it snows more. Which probably comes off as ridiculously conservative to some of you, but I'm usually pretty decent at forecasting snow here. That's often the issue on these forums when someone says something from a snowier climate that gets interpreted differently by someone in a less snowy climate. It always used to happen in the old forum when SNE was posting with the Mid-Atlantic. If someone in SNE complained about something, the mid-Atlantic guys would get pissed because they live in a less snowy climate. Like you have a big New England storm, but some folks in SNE are posting that they are disappointed because it was only 7" instead of 12+...the mid-Atlantic guys would get ruffled because they got zero, and 7" is better than zero they would say. We had a lot more of that stuff when the forum was just everyone on the east coast posting together. I understand completely. Around here, I know what to look for. I knew I wasn't get squat during the pre T-Day storm simply because of climo and simple model data, despite some silly snow algorithms. On the other hand, I will be aggressive if I like where I am relative to things like mid level features. Throw QPF out in that case. Sort of like that storm up your way pre T day. It comes with experience. You are doing a good job there. We don't need more jay peaks and Tim Kelleys. Keep doing good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 We don't need more jay peaks and Tim Kelleys. Wow, didn"t PF just say he was his friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Wow, didn"t PF just say he was his friend?A friend who forecasts feet of snow like Halloween candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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