jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 25/26th is notorious for big snowstorms across the region, two come to mind, Boxing Day 2004 Snowstorm, Boxing Day 2010 Snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 It's 10 days out. And most adults understand it's nbd. The bigger take home is that the euro ensembles are now legit wintry 11-15 right after 12/25. So a white NYD is a much higher probability. Bingo. I will sacrifice Christmas if the prospects are good after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 36/30F, rain/snow light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 36/30F, rain/snow light Enjoy the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Enjoy the mix. NWS took away the forecasted mix for today and tonight, and said chance of snow. Tomorrow could see sleet mix in, and based upon wet bulb, heavy precip will be all snow. OES developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 NWS took away the forecasted mix for today and tonight, and said chance of snow. Tomorrow could see sleet mix in, and based upon wet bulb, heavy precip will be all snow. OES developing. Congrats on 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 NAM is showing a different solution unfolding at hour 75 compared to the other models, stay tuned, things can still change in regards to the 17/18th system, just don't push it off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 It's pushed off. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I'll take my chances with -EPO, +PNA, -NAO, -AO, thank you very much. Where you seeing that, and when ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Where you seeing that, and when ? Long range GFS develops a monster -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Long range GFS develops a monster -EPO okay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Where you seeing that, and when ?No -AO yet but I'm hoping it comes along as forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 If I was guessing, I think we see a region wide event between Christmas and new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 If I was guessing, I think we see a region wide event between Christmas and new years Good chance of that happening. I see a lot of people like the Christmas day storm better than the 20-21 storm. There should be more cold air to work with if the track if right with that one. By no means noone should discount the 20th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Wow http://www.stowe.com/_includes/img_retrieve.php?webcam/octagon.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The GFS stuff on "Meteostar" doesn't look good. 850 and 925 temps are too high in each of the stormy periods (very high 850s this week but don't look like they mix down too well). Christmas storm looks like a warm Nor'easter. Then cold toward the end of the period (same story we've been reading all month). Of course, I don't have the expertise to actually judge whether this model is to be trusted and I don't have access to the Euro (and have not the expertise to judge that one either). So, I'm not holding my breath for lasting snow on the ground before Christmas and will be happy to be surprised should it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The GFS stuff on "Meteostar" doesn't look good. 850 and 925 temps are too high in each of the stormy periods (very high 850s this week but don't look like they mix down too well). Christmas storm looks like a warm Nor'easter. Then cold toward the end of the period (same story we've been reading all month). Of course, I don't have the expertise to actually judge whether this model is to be trusted and I don't have access to the Euro (and have not the expertise to judge that one either). So, I'm not holding my breath for lasting snow on the ground before Christmas and will be happy to be surprised should it happen. EURO is cold enough, I'm not worried about the GFS's tendency to be warm in this period. 12z NAM says don't count out the 18th storm just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 36/30F light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 No -AO yet but I'm hoping it comes along as forecasted Where is it forecast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Where is it forecast ?By Cohen...never mind I don't want to open that can of worms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Geez Tip I'm not a freaking meteorologist, if I'm wrong just say so and tell us why. Ensembles look awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The GFS stuff on "Meteostar" doesn't look good. 850 and 925 temps are too high in each of the stormy periods (very high 850s this week but don't look like they mix down too well). Christmas storm looks like a warm Nor'easter. Then cold toward the end of the period (same story we've been reading all month). Of course, I don't have the expertise to actually judge whether this model is to be trusted and I don't have access to the Euro (and have not the expertise to judge that one either). So, I'm not holding my breath for lasting snow on the ground before Christmas and will be happy to be surprised should it happen. I wouldn't worry about the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I agree John, the operational GFS is not as reliable as most models are in this time range, normally a compromise of the ensemble means is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z NAM weakens the H5 southern stream energy out ahead of the northern stream shortwave which doesn't close off near Manitoba, however the 12z GFS is stronger with the southern stream energy in closed low form with the northern stream shortwave closed off. So two different evolutions, two different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Wow http://www.stowe.com/_includes/img_retrieve.php?webcam/octagon.jpg Fail boat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Fail boat! Lol, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Looks like GFS isn't budging, so my guess is that the rest of the models aren't seeing what the NAM sees and therefore go with the consensus and not what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lol, yeah. When I read comments like that and then see the pictures, it makes me want to throw up. Lol All I've had so far this month is monsoon like rains. Think that week between Christmas and new Years has any legs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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