Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 sneaky cold day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The 12/20 storm has a chance because we have some split flow...but it's obviously far from perfect. But split flow can cover up some sins in the overall hemispheric pattern. We'll see if it looks any better as we get closer. It still needs a lot of things to go right...but split flow is our friend we'll be rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I think the last white Christmas was what.....2010? My area holds snowpack well, so I'm 14 of 16 for snow OG on 12/25. The misses were 1999, Farmington's least snowy DEC on record, and 2006, their warmest Dec. Avg depth is 6" and median is 5" - 8 yr with 4" or less and 8 with 6" or more. Four double-digit yr, 03, 07, 08, 13, with 2007 tops at 14". Farmington has records for 57 Dec 25ths, none before 1941 and spotty until the mid 1960s. They're 48 of 57, which is 84%. Without the 1990s (6 of 10) they'd be about 90%. Tops was 44" in 1970, with 26" in 1989 at #2. Avg is 8.75" and median 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Wednesday deal looks mainly up here but could sneak out 1-3" 2-4" type deal if it works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Jesus the GEFS are cranking the -EPO. Not very Nino like at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Wow, hammer drops in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Pants tent on the GEFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Pants tent on the GEFS today.[/quote -EPO/-AO and yes there is a negative NAO at the end of the run! Evidence is building we just have to be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Long range has seemed pretty volatile of late. I'd like to see it stick...especially regaridng the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Pants tent on the GEFS today. Pics or it didn't happen. (not of the pants tent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Jesus the GEFS are cranking the -EPO. Not very Nino like at all. Good lets get Canada full of cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The 12/20 storm has a chance because we have some split flow...but it's obviously far from perfect. But split flow can cover up some sins in the overall hemispheric pattern. We'll see if it looks any better as we get closer. It still needs a lot of things to go right...but split flow is our friend we'll be rooting for. Yeah, if we can get some confluent flow across Canada we may have a shot. See if we can make some lemonade out of lemons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 sneaky cold day today Yes it is!! Was just outside for about a Half Hour non stop and it's a Cold Day for sure....nothing mild about it. Feels like winter!! About 34 degrees here, which is quite a bit below Average (7 or 8 degrees) for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Jesus the GEFS are cranking the -EPO. Not very Nino like at all. Are you looking at the 00 or 12Z to determine that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Lol, 12z para glide GFS has a coastal on the 24th followed up by another the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Are you looking at the 00 or 12Z to determine that ? 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Perhaps the system on the 17-18th will be the sacrificial lamb for a better set up in the days following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 That is a nice look on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 That is a nice look on the ensembles Let's hope this look holds? We've had a few decent looking ensembles the last couple weeks, but then they just seem to change their tune, or push out the nice look. Maybe this time it's the real deal...hope so :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Active southern jet, bring the cold down, ridge greenland....ez game. Chuck em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12Z. Okay, ...interesting. The 00z didn't seem to want much part of any such EPO ... The CDC values were down right ugly from last night... maintaining an NP arc (which combines the WPO relay into the EPO) as about as wrong as imaginatively possible for winter weather enthusiasts, to put it nicely. I am wondering what has changed, or if the GEFs you refer are in the 500mb geopotential medium? That might explain some of the differences, because as we know ... the CDC employs lower tropospheric wind/flux anomalies in their EOFs. Contrasting the CPC uses 500mb geopotentials in theirs. Not sure what advantage there is to using either, but I am biased toward the CPC frankly, because Met 101 instructs us that the atmophere is guided by the 500mb because that is where the ratio of air density to air motion is provides the greatest mass transport, and so disturbances are born there..blah blah blah... Meanwhile, the new CPC MJO prog is popping the wave back out over in Phase 3. Code for go f ur self if you want winter... Seems everything's just out of whack in an unstable froth right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Okay, ...interesting. The 00z didn't seem to want much part of any such EPO ... The CDC values were down right ugly from last night... maintaining an NP arc (which combines the WPO relay into the EPO) as about as wrong as imaginatively possible for winter weather enthusiasts, to put it nicely. I am wondering what has changed, or if the GEFs you refer are in the 500mb geopotential medium? That might explain some of the differences, because as we know ... the CDC employs lower tropospheric wind/flux anomalies in their EOFs. Contrasting the CPC uses 500mb geopotentials in theirs. Not sure what advantage there is to using either, but I am biased toward the CPC frankly, because Met 101 instructs us that the atmophere is guided by the 500mb because that is where the ratio of air density to air motion is provides the greatest mass transport, and so disturbances are born there..blah blah blah... Meanwhile, the new CPC MJO prog is popping the wave back out over in Phase 3. Code for go f ur self if you want winter... Seems everything's just out of whack in an unstable froth right now. Well I'm just looking at the 500mb plots. Tropicaltidbits.com has some good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Euro liking 12/21/14 but fantasy range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Euro liking 12/21/14 but fantasy range Cold rain, but signal for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Cold rain, but signal for something. CP cold rain good snows inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Well I'm just looking at the 500mb plots. Tropicaltidbits.com has some good stuff. gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png Heh, that looks like a neutral EPO/+PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 CP cold rain good snows inland Not with those 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Heh, that looks like a neutral EPO/+PNA Well nuances aside, it's a pretty good look. It starts earlier than that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Tropicaltidbits.com has some good stuff. That's my new go-to site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 But it doens't matter.. that "appeal" is decent to get winter back into the NP-GL-NE regions. Could use a bit more cross-polar look, but that's what we would get from a truer -EPO. Home grown cold should be sufficient tho, seeing as we have a well-developed cryosphere on this side of the Hemi - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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