J Paul Gordon Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 We can leave the weenie-casting for the banter thread. I suppose that includes sarcastic responses, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Iceland yesterday,us in two weeks: http://www.mbl.is/english/news/2014/12/10/farmer_films_crazy_storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Rerun Dec 26 2010 - Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Iceland yesterday,us in two weeks: http://www.mbl.is/english/news/2014/12/10/farmer_films_crazy_storm/ pedestrian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Keep an eye on the MJO my personal opinion until it gets into phases eight or one then that's when I believe we will start seeing our chances of getting better snowstorms right now the European model has it going into The circle and then exiting out into phase 4 which we all know is crappy phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 check it out That is very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Ok, fair enough...yes, model guidance was a bit too warm even in the N plains and lakes...and even here. Though you could kind of see how we would avoid the big warmth. Plains are getting theirs now though...they'll continue rack up the + departures over the next week. At any rate, hopefully we can get a threat or two in here before Christmas...still not a particularly cold pattern coming in the week leading into Christmas, but it might be cold enough. MEX at Rapid City has 68F on Friday, that's good for +30F on the Max end I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Had no idea you could measure wave heights from space. I'm curious how accurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=64045 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Had no idea you could measure wave heights from space. I'm curious how accurate it is. From what I could find, this particular satellite uses a Ka-band altimeter (AltiKa) that is accurate to 8mm at a 2km spatial resolution. Older methods have relied on less accurate radar-based methods that are subject to significant attenuation of the signal. AltiKa has a high error rate pretty much anywhere there is rain, especially heavy rain. I couldn't find a figure for how high the error rate is in areas of rain, but my impression is that in areas of heavy rain (eg tropics) it is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 06z GFS operational model is very amplified with the northern stream shortwave with the H5 low digging underneath SNE islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 pedestrian Your obsession with being the best forecaster is getting out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Well we way turn milder this weekend into early next week so enjoy what is on the ground now. With any luck, we may be able to grab something before Christmas. I still think Post Christmas will be when any colder pattern really settles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 Well the period 12/25-1/5 could be a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I honestly think the 6z GFS is something we could see with the 18th system. Could be rain showers over the snow which could be moderate to heavy at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 Meanwhile heading to ORD tonight for a weekend family event. Should be milder everywhere by Sunday but hopefully not lasting too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro looks decent for Tues/Wed storm next week..maybe a mix..With temps in the 30's thru Tues..hopefully can keep what's OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 It's not in the 30s. It's even low 40s for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro doesn't show much of anything for next week...it shows some very light precip/snow behind the front almost on an inverted torugh. The 12/21 threat looks like it's not going to have much cold air around, so I think we're going to have to get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro doesn't show much of anything for next week...it shows some very light precip/snow behind the front almost on an inverted torugh. The 12/21 threat looks like it's not going to have much cold air around, so I think we're going to have to get lucky. How would "lucky" happen? Where would the cold (enough) air come from and would it be cold enough from surface to critical areas above? I'm interested in the "how" not the fantasy situation all us "weenies" will contrive no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro looks decent for Tues/Wed storm next week..maybe a mix..With temps in the 30's thru Tues..hopefully can keep what's OTG I don't think we are going to keep what's on the ground Kevin....it's toast very soon. And from what Will is saying, I think the white Xmas ideas are fleeting very fast. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I don't think we are going to keep what's on the ground Kevin....it's toast very soon. And from what Will is saying, I think the white Xmas ideas are fleeting very fast. Oh well.I didn't get that at all from what he said. There's another colder storm showing up on the 23-24th . I think chsnces are better than 50/50 of a white one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The 12/21 may be marginal. The one after near the 24(if that were to even happen which isn't a lock) may be better. I mean if I lived inland, I would at least maybe keep an eye open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I didn't get that at all from what he said. There's another colder storm showing up on the 23-24th . I think chsnces are better than 50/50 of a white one Well I hope you are right? It would be nice to have some sort of wintry system over the next couple weeks. Like Scott said, If we live inland, keep an eye open. Im sure we all will be doing that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Well next week certainly looks boring in the weather department.....maybe we can warm up enough and we can hit the links one last time this year. Our next storm threat looks to be sometime around the 21st. This one has the look of a Miller B coming out of the Gulf. Will have to see if the threat sticks around on the guidance for a while. The look post Christmas is encouraging though. Hope it stays like that and as we near it actually moves nearer in the guidance and doesn't just hang out around day 10 for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Miller A come out of Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The 12/21 may be marginal. The one after near the 24(if that were to even happen which isn't a lock) may be better. I mean if I lived inland, I would at least maybe keep an eye open.Yeah I think our best shot at a white Christmas is the storm near or just before Christmas. The threat around the 17th and 18th looks like a non-starter. Maybe we get an inverted trough deal if lucky but that whole setup needs some help right now. The 12/21 threat looks warm at the moment. But given it is 10 days out, there's plenty of time to keep an eye on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Had no idea you could measure wave heights from space. I'm curious how accurate it is. SARAL or Satellite with ARgos and ALtiKa is a cooperative altimetry technology ...ALTIKA will measure ocean surface topography with an accuracy of 8 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Well lately when the pattern has looked boring something interesting has happened, so maybe something pops next week. But if not that is ok and normal as the action just might come at the right time, although I am disappointed in this weeks events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Great sign here looks like the NAO is going negative Dec 22nd onward. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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