December-winter is finally here!

[JC-CT]

I can't see why some people don't like the mid month period for a few snowstorms. 12z and 18z GFS shows us how close we are with a positive PNA in place and a polar vortex over Hudson Bay. It is clearly a cold and stormy pattern with an active southern and northern streams.

I agree, but really it is too early to tell with high confidence.

This seems like one of those patterns where things are active and things just pop up, including weenies.

[powderfreak]

You have to understand that a lot of long range mets focus on the conus. Not New England. First half of December absolutely looks warm in the conus as a whole. There's a couple cold shots early but we'e talking about a mean. It doesn't mean every day is a torch.

New England may be in the best spot this time to avoid it. Kind of like the northern plains last winter basically never saw any torches and cutters like we saw from time to time.

I still think pretty meh for New England first half but we might sneak away with closer to average vs elsewhere.

 

Agreed, it doesn't look cold by any means for the country as a whole, but New England looks to have some decent cold shots from time to time.  Or at least not getting into a full on SW flow torch, like the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys may.

[Ginx snewx]

Not me. I just call like I see it.

did you see the renewed drop in AO?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

did you see the renewed drop in AO?

Yea but doesn't it usually take a week or two for it to trickle down?

[Ginx snewx]

Agreed, it doesn't look cold by any means for the country as a whole, but New England looks to have some decent cold shots from time to time. Or at least not getting into a full on SW flow torch, like the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys may.

relaxation before reload as long as it's not a torch you will get your weekly 6-12

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

relaxation before reload as long as it's not a torch you will get your weekly 6-12

PF will be fine. I'm meh about us for the next two weeks.

[Logan11]

17 inches here in November...the best since I have moved here into the hills. Probably the only year I had more in November was when I lived in the valley below Albany and we had two feet on Thanksgiving 1971.  But that could be a once a century event.

You see what you want to see... this November will take care of snow in this month for the next like 3-5 years, lol.

[Whineminster]

nice little snow shower going on here, dusting OTG, unexpected but I'll take the icing on the cake  

[powderfreak]

PF will be fine. I'm meh about us for the next two weeks.

 

Its still climo this time of year for us to be favored.  I feel like once we hit the end of December, January, February, that its more of fair game for snow events.  The bookends like November and March will definitely favor NNE as a whole.  But for you guys, once mid/late December rolls around, its usually open season for snow events for all spots in New England.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Its still climo this time of year for us to be favored. I feel like once we hit the end of December, January, February, that its more of fair game for snow events. The bookends like November and March will definitely favor NNE as a whole. But for you guys, once mid/late December rolls around, its usually open season for snow events for all spots in New England.

Agree. My weenie is in sleep mode til mid december.

[powderfreak]

17 inches here in November...the best since I have moved here into the hills. Probably the only year I had more in November was when I lived in the valley below Albany and we had two feet on Thanksgiving 1971.  But that could be a once a century event.

 

That's great, my folks had some damage from the heavy wet snow down in Delmar at 300ft.  Said they got about 8" or so.  Definitely the snowiest November of anywhere I've lived at 23.8" through 6pm.  The persistent light snow is still falling, so may go over 2 feet cumulative tonight here at home.  A good deal of grass-covered snow cover this month from the earlier 2-3.5" events we've had.

[Logan11]

It was on the wet side here at first - drier after dark. But nothing to bring down limbs. Quite a few power outages in the mid Hudson Valley areas below Albany.

 

I was thinking the Lake Ontario band from early last week might have had enough in it to upslope in the Northern Greens. Whiteface did ok from that.

That's great, my folks had some damage from the heavy wet snow down in Delmar at 300ft.  Said they got about 8" or so.  Definitely the snowiest November of anywhere I've lived at 23.8" through 6pm.  The persistent light snow is still falling, so may go over 2 feet cumulative tonight here at home.  A good deal of grass-covered snow cover this month from the earlier 2-3.5" events we've had.

[jamesnichols89]

I like the dates between the 7-8th and 12-13th periods for something to happen.  It looks like Today was cold, Tuesday is cold, and Thursday is cold this week.  We could see an event on Tuesday or Thursday of next week, most likely mixing with snow/rain/mix type event with rain on the coastline and snow in the interior.  However we have time before deciding about this event.  The Tuesday event is suppressed with the EURO and GFS, NAM is starting to show it in the last few runs because its not quite in the Tuesday range yet, but I think the high could end up further north with less suppression on the southern stream shortwave energy and allow the low further north.  GFS is overdone on the Thursday event.

[jamesnichols89]

The next three days could bring a change to a more snowier outlook looking into the day 4-5 time frame.  Models, specifically the SREFs leave room for growth northward underneath the strong area of 1044mb strength high pressure cresting over VT and NH.  Depending upon how cold it gets and the timing of cold air arrives on Tuesday will bring the chance for Ocean Effect Snow and a disturbance moving through the flow develop enough strength to develop a surface low south of the region enhancing precip along the coastline.  Temps Tuesday are in the lower 30s, enough for snowfall.  We need to keep an eye out for any trends that may occur allowing this to gain more moisture.

[CoastalWx]

Still looks like some sort of mix to rain Wednesday and then another sneaky deal Saturday perhaps. After that, overall pattern is rather mild across the CONUS. Tough call for New England because we may escape the torch,  but it's gonna be tough I think to get a larger event.

[moneypitmike]

Still looks like some sort of mix to rain Wednesday and then another sneaky deal Saturday perhaps. After that, overall pattern is rather mild across the CONUS. Tough call for New England because we may escape the torch,  but it's gonna be tough I think to get a larger event.

Still no internet so the board suffices as mg source of info outside of ix fofe azf. Any thing Toa. UmulTebecofs cha gei ER?nsar as ican tell, not noteworthy. THX.

[CoastalWx]

Still no internet so the board suffices as mg source of info outside of ix fofe azf. Any thing Toa. UmulTebecofs cha gei ER?nsar as ican tell, not noteworthy. THX.

 

What the hell did you just say?

[moneypitmike]

Sorry.should read anything ic note before the change over?

[CoastalWx]

Sorry.should read anything ic note before the change over?

 

Looks mostly like some ice to rain. Perhaps a better shot of snow over the weekend, but again..it's sort of an iffy look.

[CoastalWx]

Long range is pretty ugly looking.

[CoastalWx]

It still seems like after mid month it may get better, but what we really could use is a -NAO.  You are going to have to squeeze in more marginal, thread the needle events with the pattern shown. The only good thing I see is continued higher heights north of AK. With that, you can always try to push colder air south.

[Logan11]

Cold morning here.   5F is the low.

[JC-CT]

It still seems like after mid month it may get better, but what we really could use is a -NAO. You are going to have to squeeze in more marginal, thread the needle events with the pattern shown. The only good thing I see is continued higher heights north of AK. With that, you can always try to push colder air south.

Isn't there supposed to be some sort of response to the strat warming but not until after the new year?

[Damage In Tolland]

That mid week deal has been trending colder

[Logan11]

On the Euro there seems to be east based Neg. NAO late week to weekend as that low tries to cut under us, with the cold high holding long enough.

 

The persistent trough near AK keeps forming just far enough west in the eastern Alleutians to favor troffiness in the Northeast it seems.

It still seems like after mid month it may get better, but what we really could use is a -NAO.  You are going to have to squeeze in more marginal, thread the needle events with the pattern shown. The only good thing I see is continued higher heights north of AK. With that, you can always try to push colder air south.

[CoastalWx]

Isn't there supposed to be some sort of response to the strat warming but not until after the new year?

 

Yeah it takes quite a bit of time. But even years like 2004-2005 never really had a strat response in the 50mb through Jan.

[Damage In Tolland]

Next weekend kind of looks like a pseudo Miller B. The GEFS don;'t look bad long range. Certainly no big warmth..Maybe near to slightly BN..New England does look to be in the best spot for anything wintry

[CoastalWx]

On the Euro there seems to be east based Neg. NAO late week to weekend as that low tries to cut under us, with the cold high holding long enough.

 

The persistent trough near AK keeps forming just far enough west in the eastern Alleutians to favor troffiness in the Northeast it seems.

 

Yeah next weekend probably has a better shot of frozen. We finally have highs to the north and northeast to lock in colder air. The ensembles are close for something more interesting too.

[CoastalWx]

Next weekend kind of looks like a pseudo Miller B. The GEFS don;'t look bad long range. Certainly no big warmth..Maybe near to slightly BN..New England does look to be in the best spot for anything wintry

 

If we can maintain that block north of AK, we might be ok. We would absolutely rock and roll with a -NAO, but hopefully we can get storms to dig like the op runs have shown beyond day 10. 

[Ginx snewx]

Still no internet so the board suffices as mg source of info outside of ix fofe azf. Any thing Toa. UmulTebecofs cha gei ER?nsar as ican tell, not noteworthy. THX.

what in the Sam Hell omg,lmao